There could be a significant amount of star player movement in the NBA within the next year, Zach Lowe of ESPN said in the latest episode of his Lowe Post podcast (YouTube link). Lowe pointed to a number of volatile situations around the league and the potential impact of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement as reasons why we could see more notable trades and free agency moves than usual in the not-too-distant future.
“I think the next year in the NBA could be an unbelievable period of superstar and star player movement because you’ve just got a lot of sort of roiling situations,” Lowe explained (hat tip to RealGM). “You have one year left before the really harsh trade rules kick into place, after the 2023/24 season, where teams over the second apron, like the Clippers for instance, cannot even aggregate salaries. They can’t add up money to bring in a big money player. That’s starting after next season.
“I think we could see a ton of movement in the offseason and up to the (trade) deadline. And a ton of big names moving. That’s not to say (Joel) Embiid, but I think this going to be a hot and heavy offseason and people should buckle up.”
Lowe’s prediction followed a conversation about Embiid’s future with the Sixers. Lowe stressed that the 2023 MVP has always been loyal to Philadelphia and expressed skepticism that Embiid would ask for a trade anytime soon, but noted that teams around the NBA have an eye on that situation following another disappointing playoff exit.
Pointing to the Knicks, in particular, Lowe said he’d be surprised if New York gave up significant assets for a player like Damian Lillard or Karl-Anthony Towns, arguing that clubs in the Knicks’ position would be better off waiting to see if a higher-level star like Embiid eventually becomes available.
Here’s more from Lowe’s most recent podcast, which featured fellow ESPN reporter Tim MacMahon:
- James Harden‘s future in Philadelphia is much less certain than Embiid’s. During a discussion about the future of the Sixers guard, both Lowe and MacMahon stated that the Rockets “think he’s coming.” Harden can become a free agent this summer by declining his player option for 2023/24, and rumors about a return to Houston continue to percolate.
- Monty Williams‘ ouster in Phoenix doesn’t necessarily mean the Suns will be more inclined to hang onto center Deandre Ayton, who had an up-and-down relationship with Williams. Lowe says the Ayton situation has “spun totally out of control,” adding that many people within the organization are “tired” of the Suns’ center. MacMahon agrees that the two sides needs to move on and says he’s “pretty confident” Ayton will be dealt this offseason.
- While he makes it clear that he doesn’t have any inside info and isn’t explicitly reporting anything, Lowe views the Clippers as a logical trade partner for the Suns if they want to move Chris Paul. As Lowe explains, Los Angeles has been seeking an answer at point guard throughout the Paul George/Kawhi Leonard era and Phoenix would like to add reliable depth, which the Clippers could provide.
Money is the biggest factor for Harden or most players
For old superstars
Happiness is the second factor
Wins is the third
Knicks already have Embiid his name is Mitchell Robinson. Personally I’d rather have Mitch. Cheaper, understands his role. Also a primo dona but at least you have leverage, whereas Embiid is allowed to do whatever he wants without consequence. Mitch also stays healthier. I wouldn’t give up a turd coverer in pocket lint for Embiid if I were the knicks.
How in the world do you compare Mitch to Embiid? Off the jump Mitch has missed slightly more games over the last 4 years (105 to 100) and the last 2 years (33 to 32). Fact is, big men that are 7ft and 280 are going to have some issues over an 82 game season. Michel is a great defender but Embiid is pretty damn good too. Offensively, Much isn’t even close to Embiid. Comparing the two males you doing silly, and I’ma Knicks fan. What’s Embiid done behavior to the detriment of his team? They honestly he showed towards a Been Simmons question minutes after a devastating loss in the playoffs?
This guy hates Embiid. Don’t humor him.
Darkseid, answer me: who is the better value? How is that trolling? Mitch is not an all star but if I’m the knicks I’d rather spend the money/assets elsewhere
Spending the money and assets elsewhere is not the same thing as your original argument, which is very revealing about your ability to be objective.
Uh yeah, no.
I wouldn’t touch Embiid with a 10 foot pole if I’m any NBA team. Dude has shown he cannot stay healthy, cannot win anything he doesn’t campaign for years for (MVP trophy), throws his teammates under the bus consistently, and just overall is not the type of player or big you build anything sustainable or successful around. He’s also about to be 30. YIKES.
Philly fans that think they can get any sort of “haul” for Embiid, are not seeing the real picture here. He’s damaged goods, and not going anywhere. If he did, the return would be underwhelming at best.
Just like all big games Harden disappeared again. 76ers should say goodbye to him if they want to be a playoff team next year.
Im not the biggest Embiid fan, but saying M. Robinson is better or that he is damaged goods is nonsense.
He has a lot of flaws but is better than 99,7% of the players in the league.
I guess the 0.3is Jokic.
He’s not even better than Bam Adebayo
Are you saying Embiid ISN’T better than Bam? Really?
Yes I am. If you had an IQ above 100, you’d see that as well.
I’m not some idiot who goes off the prevailing narrative. I see stuff with my own eyes. Bam as a team player is worlds better than embiid. Maybe in a vacuum embiid is more talented than bam, but basketball is a team sport, and Bam is the better team player on both ends of the floor. He’s also by far the more available player, and we all know availability is the best ability.
Even when Embiid is healthy, he’s a liability defensively. Again, the common casual sheep won’t understand this. Defense goes beyond block numbers in the box score. Offensively, Bam fits within the team concept, and isn’t a black hole like Joel is. Joel’s offensive game reminds me of Demarcus Cousins in Sacramento, and his defense as well. Again, this is not a compliment. Cousins was not a winning player either, and thus he was vastly overrated as a player as well.
As a Sixers fan I’m not mad if they do a small rebuild and trade away Embiid. Glad he won a MVP but it’s going to be hard to have a contending side once Harden leaves and everyone gets a year older.
Also have to think Joel has huge injury concerns and after the season he just had he’s never going to have as higher value as he does now.
I’d try go something like Joel Embiid for Zion Williamson, Jonas Valucunias and Trey Murphy.
I’d then offer PJ Tucker away and try get back a protected first for him.
That’s leaves us looking something like
Maxey Murphy Zion Harris Big Val
Tobias would be in the last year of his deal and then he’d move on and while Maxey and Murphy haven’t been extended you’d have money to spend next offseason that you could use to bring in another wing.
Maxey and Murphy would have great opportunities to showcase their skill and elevate their games, Tobias gets a season to sow what he can do in a contract year which sets him up well.
I’m not the biggest Zion fan because of all the injuries and poor conditioning. But he is tremendously talented and has insane potential, maybe a move to a bigger market would inspire him to be on the court more.
Pelicans would look something like Daniels CJ Ingram Herb Embiid, defensively only CJ let’s them down and offensively CJ Ingram and Embiid an all score 20-35 a night consistently.
If not another idea could simply be, Joel Embiid for Jaylen Brown and Rob Williams.
Sixers look something like Maxey Brown … Harris Williams. Big fan of Jaylen, not only is he a great two way player, all nba level player but off the court he’s a fantastic person by the look of it. He’s really pushed Tatum to being the top 10 player he is now and I think it’s safe to say Jaylen not far behind probably top 20. I think for him and Maxey the opportunity to be the face of the franchise in larger opportunity both would thrive.
Rob Williams then replaces Embiid and we are sweet. Boston on the other hand would be set Joel and Tatum two top 10 talents, both skill sets go together perfectly. Would easily be title favourites for the next 5 years.
If Lowe is right (rare), then there will likely be a sea change in player valuations. Even the NBA can’t produce enough clueless buyers to take all the underwater contracts he’s referring to, at least not at the trade prices we’ve seen.
100% agreed, where’s a man gotta go to get overpaid with a smile these days
I really wonder if these {strict} new changes are going to inspire GM’s to bring both of their balls to the negotiation table now rather than just 1
In the past they were too scared that a player would walk, but now with markets tightened and the extra burdens of overpays Gms need to play the markets like they are well actually markets and not human feelings. Also as you allude to cap (havers) the few (only like 8 today) will have a greater incentive (and should be enhanced priice) to take in the Kemnba Walkers of the world w the cap
* An example this year is Dlo…I highly doubt any open cap team has interest so really Pelinka needs to drive those numbers down low as they can go. Its really the biggest Job Silver has made for him with his changes-
I said day of Cba passing , the Nba has now become more a back alley episode of “The Apprentice” now.
True he’s come up short a couple of times in his career but how many bigs out there giving you 30/10/4 on 55%/33%/85% shooting with 1.5 blocks and 1 steal a game? That’s arguably 3 or 4 bigs in his lane. Jokic, Giannis and AD. Trams would line up to get someone like Embiid. Look at what Utah got for Gobert. Certainly an overpay but I bet they had 10 other teams that checked in on the cost.
Yeah. Dlo is one of the many test cases. The knee jerk reaction of GMs is going to run into a new challenge. They can ignore cap space/FAs (free agency is dead in any case), S&Ts, luxury tax (it’s just $$, and winning makes $$) and a lesser MLE. But what happens you’re over the second Apron, have no MLE and can’t make a basic trade. The new CBA rules (if LAL were over the second apron) wouldn’t have permitted the Westbrook trade.
Lowe is more of a scouting analyst, finding the diamonds in the rough per say. He predicted the rise of Jokic, Giannis and Gobert years before anyone knew who they were. He has gotten his share of player movement predictions right over the years though.
Too many dudes cannot be moved due to salary/declining skills.
Tho the new Cba is dreadful, and yes will probably stir a couple teams into some moves they otherwise wouldn’t have this off season.
One semi good thing to come from it will be the death of the 3 star (paid) team
LeBron started this with Mia, we have seen many failures since, one of the most obv and recent with RW in LAL . It is no longer doable (effectively) under this new CBA, going to be real hard to maintain elite teams as well for more than 3~4 year stretches no matter what talent you have or even draft during.
“LeBron started this with Mia.” No he didn’t. Remember the 80’s Celtics and Lakers?;4-5 future Hall of Famers on each team. Ainge completed a big 3 in Boston. You had the old Spurs teams With Duncan, Ginobli and Parker.
Those were homegrown so the {Larry} Bird rights kinda helped that song hum
Your not going to see collaborations anymore occur inorganically might have been a better way of wording but I thought that was pretty obv The point was moving forward not finding super rare anomalies (that dont fit) from the past
Of course you’ll still see big 3s. Some one might have to take less than the max but if a guy wants to win then they’ll take less.
Agreed. The modern max salary big 3 is based on the assumption that it’s OK for 3 guys to use all the cap space because you can keep spending using cap exceptions and trades taking in more salary than you’re sending out. Maybe for a year or two, or if there’s a big 3 with a couple of 25% max guys.
Warriors would love to trade a for embiid! 4 Poole and kuminga salary match
the days of the max are numbered.
I honestly wouldn’t even trade Siakam for Embiid. Van vleet in a sign n trade maybe. Shows you where the market probably is on the big fella. And what his true value on the court is (negative, IMO)
Knicks have to make a big move this off-season. They’ll lose Toppin, Quickley (at least on rookie salaries), and their picks will be worth less the longer they wait. Randle, Quickley and some firsts for Towns makes sense. Lillard makes no sense now that they have Brunson. Embiid will never happen. Ayton isn’t much of an upgrade over Robinson. Zion is an interesting wild card. I doubt the Pelicans trade him while his value is so low, but that relationship is probably not great at this point.