After coming within two games of winning their 18th championship in 2021/22 under first-year head coach Ime Udoka, the Celtics had both a promising and strange offseason last year.
On the plus side, they traded for guard Malcolm Brogdon, who went on to win Sixth Man of the Year, and signed veteran forward Danilo Gallinari. Unfortunately, Gallinari tore his ACL while playing with the Italian national team last summer, and then Udoka was suspended for the ’22/23 season last September for violating “organizational guidelines” after a consensual affair with a female staffer.
Despite the dramatic circumstances that unexpectedly thrust Joe Mazzulla into the lead coaching role, Boston’s on-court results actually improved during the regular season. The team won six more games en route to a 57-25 record, the second-best mark in the NBA.
The Celtics had all the hallmarks of a championship-caliber club entering the playoffs, holding the league’s second-best offense and defense and the top overall net rating (plus-6.7).
Things quickly went awry in the postseason, however, with the Celtics unexpectedly dropping a couple of games in their first-round series against the Hawks before facing a 3-2 deficit in their second-round series against the Sixers. Boston pulled through by winning the final two games, advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals, only to immediately lose three straight against the Heat and face the unprecedented task of trying to win four consecutive elimination games.
The Celtics staged an admirable comeback, winning three in a row to even the series, but got blown out at home in Game 7, with Jayson Tatum suffering an ankle injury on the game’s first play and Jaylen Brown struggling mightily, going 8-of-23 from the field along with eight turnovers.
The Celtics’ Offseason Plan
While they obviously fell short of their ultimate goal of winning the title, it’s still impressive that the Celtics have advanced to at least the Conference Finals in five of the past seven seasons. That illustrates how close they’ve been to a breakthrough for several years now while also showing how incredibly difficult it is to win four consecutive playoff series in order to emerge with the Larry O’Brien trophy.
Only a handful of teams have just one unrestricted free agent this summer, at least right now, and Boston is one of them. However, that doesn’t mean the Celtics don’t have some important decisions to make in the coming weeks.
Brown became eligible for a super-max extension after his first All-NBA berth in ’22/23, earning a spot on the Second Team. Based on what president of basketball operations Brad Stevens said after they were eliminated, it sounds like the Celtics fully intend to offer Brown the projected five-year, $290MM+ contract, which would be the largest in NBA history.
Tatum will also be extension-eligible, but he’ll definitely wait a year to maximize his earnings. The 25-year-old will be in position to sign his own super-max contract in 2024 no matter how the upcoming season goes, having met the performance criteria by making the All-NBA First Team in each of the past two seasons. He just needs one more year of NBA experience to officially become super-max eligible.
Would the Celtics be open to trading Brown if the right opportunity arose? Perhaps. But he’s only 26, and they’ve obviously had a lot of success with him and Tatum. It seems far more likely that the club will continue to try to complement its stars rather than split them up.
Brown’s possible extension won’t kick in until ’24/25, so the Celtics have one season of leeway until things start to get really complicated from a financial standpoint. That said, bringing back the same core group next season — if that’s even the goal — won’t be cheap.
Forward Grant Williams will be a restricted free agent, and while his season was a little uneven (in part due to injury), he’s due for a big raise on the $4.3MM he made this past season. His numbers (8.1 PPG and 4.6 RPG in 25.9 MPG) look modest on the surface, but he has turned himself into a very good shooter and he’s a versatile defender as well, so his skill set has a lot of value, especially in a free agent class without much star talent available.
Gallinari is a near-lock to exercise his $6.8MM player option coming off a major injury. That would leave the Celtics with a $158MM+ payroll with 10 players on guaranteed contracts. The projected luxury tax line is $162MM, and the highly-restrictive second tax apron is at $179.5MM.
I’m not sure how much money Williams will receive, but for the sake of argument let’s say he re-signs with Boston on a four-year, $60MM contract, with a $15MM annual cap hit. That would put the team’s payroll at $173MM+ with 11 players under contract.
In that scenario, the Celtics could (barely) stay below the second apron as long as their three other players are on minimum deals, but they wouldn’t be able to use the mid-level exception to sign a free agent. They’d also have to decline their $3.5MM team option on Mike Muscala, which isn’t a deal-breaker or anything since he wasn’t in the playoff rotation.
If they’re not confident in Gallinari’s ability to bounce back from a second torn ACL (he’ll be 35 in August), they could offload his salary by attaching some draft capital. That should enable them to use the taxpayer MLE, though at $5MM it’s fair to wonder how impactful that addition might be.
Payton Pritchard requested a trade before the February deadline and was disappointed to not be dealt, so he’s an obvious candidate to be moved if the Celtics can find something they like. They definitely won’t just salary dump him because he wants a bigger opportunity though. If Boston is hesitant to use draft assets to move off Gallinari, the team could package Pritchard with him instead.
In the playoffs, one thing that really stood out to me was Robert Williams was not the all-over-the-place defensive force that he was in ’21/22. That makes sense, since he was slow to recover from a second knee procedure in training camp and was limited to just 35 games, but the Celtics certainly missed his roaming weak-side play-making and ability to change shots. Hopefully he’ll regain his prior form, but it’s worth monitoring how he looks to start next season, as his game is very reliant on athleticism.
It may seem like I’m implying the Celtics will have a quiet offseason, and that could end up being the case. However, Stevens has consistently been active in looking for roster upgrades, and he won’t hesitate to shake things up if he thinks it will improve their odds of winning their first championship since 2008.
Salary Cap Situation
Guaranteed Salary
Jayson Tatum ($32,600,060)- Jaylen Brown ($31,830,357)
- Malcolm Brogdon ($22,500,000)
- Marcus Smart ($18,583,713)
- Derrick White ($18,357,143)
- Robert Williams ($11,571,429)
- Al Horford ($10,000,000)
- Payton Pritchard ($4,037,278)
- Sam Hauser ($1,927,896)
- Total: $151,407,876
Dead/Retained Salary
- Demetrius Jackson ($92,857)
- Total: $92,857
Player Options
- Danilo Gallinari ($6,802,950): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $6,802,950
Team Options
- Mike Muscala ($3,500,000): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $3,500,000
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Luke Kornet ($2,413,304)
- Justin Champagnie ($1,927,896)
- Note: Champagnie would receive a partial guarantee of $50K if he’s not waived on or before August 1; that partial guarantee would increase to $350K if he’s not waived on or before the first day of the regular season.
- Total: $4,341,200
Restricted Free Agents
- Grant Williams ($8,486,620 qualifying offer / $12,918,843 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $12,918,843
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 35 overall (cap hold)
Extension-Eligible Players
- Malcolm Brogdon (veteran)
- Jaylen Brown (veteran)
- Jayson Tatum (veteran)
- Derrick White (veteran)
- Payton Pritchard (rookie scale)
Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Tatum is ineligible to sign the super-max extension he has qualified for until 2024.
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Blake Griffin ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $1,989,698
Cap Exceptions Available
- Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
- Trade exception: $1,836,090
- Trade exception: $1,160,955
Note: The Celtics would lose the taxpayer mid-level exception if their team salary is above the second tax apron; they would gain access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary remains below both tax aprons.
Celtics are fuqd. Brown gonna leave. Horford too old. Time lord is…questionable. Grant gone. Brogdon due for an injury. Their owner is too cheap. At this point, blow it up
Brown seems like a pretty smart dude, he isn’t leaving unless it’s in a sign and trade. He isn’t leaving all that money on the table.
I always agree with you but I think they need need to make two trades and find a new coach. Need a PG and a center taller then 6’11
Ha, ha! Thanks Kurtis! As to what our Celts really should, and are doing, is to is build up a good solid coaching staff which works as a team. And that’s Coach Joe’s reputation. He builds a team. Gets everyone to pull together toward a goal. So, all good. Go Celtics!
I feel like the Celtics should give it one more run. Trading Brown really doesn’t help them unless they somehow get Lillard, because nobody they get in return is going to be as capable as him. Yeah, Brown has issues trying to create for himself and can’t really make plays for others either, but he’s an elite off-ball player with incredible gravity on offense, and he’s an ideal fit for a ball-dominant star like Tatum. What Boston needs is a gameplan change. They take too many threes and try to run too many plays with Tatum and Brown in isolation rather than running plays involving both of them. Attacking the paint more, using Brown as an off-ball threat and giving White and Brogdon more touches, and ensuring that they use their bigs in PnR offense more is a better solution than blowing things up immediately. Give Mazzulla a full training camp as HC to run his own scheme rather than trying to do Udoka’s plans without his adjustment ability. Trade Pritchard to try and get a short-term Grant Williams replacement and shift the offensive scheme, and give it one last go.
On the other hand, if that doesn’t result in a championship, they kind of have to move on. RWIII is too injury-prone and he’ll only get worse. Horford is aging. Smart has capped out. The new CBA won’t be kind to big money teams. It’s essentially next year or bust.
I mean, they have one of the best teams in the NBA, hard to blow that up.
On another note, when does Demetrious Jackson finally go off the books? Dude has been making 92k a year from Boston for like 6 years now.
Next season is the last one according to BBRef.
Wonderful analysis. Perfect. Exactly!
Forgot about Gallo ….. he could’ve provided offense off the bench. Something they sorely lacked. The guy they should trade is Smart. Get a more traditional PG.
Have Celtics peaked already????
Peaked? Doubt it. More like Celtics are just getting started. Celts have been in turmoil for some time now getting this roster & coaching staff together. Added in superb Malcolm Brogdon this year and Derrick White is now has become a mainstay. Smart is now reliable to post up in the paint & a needed bucket. We’d like to have Gallo play and add a couple more pieces as well this offseason. I’d say next season the Celtics will really hit their stride and stay that way until Tatum & Brown get old. We now have the makings of a top team for years to come. Goo Celtics!
Get rid of Smart and Add Brunson, similar salary. Oh I am sorry, Brunson is taken. Lol
Smart makes less than Evan Fournier, the guy you signed from Boston to ride your pine. Lol
Brown is not a FA, he’s got a year left on his contract. The issue, and it’s threshold for BOS’s offseason, is whether they should offer Brown the super max extension that he’s eligible for. If they do, he’ll sign it and he can’t be traded. If they don’t offer it, then he likely doesn’t sign any extension with BOS, but still has a year left on his contract. At that point, he can be traded, but trade or no trade, there’s no super max.
If Brown stays, and is thus an untradable super max guy, then BOS has to retool the team around the Tatum-Brown combo (two star wings). If he doesn’t stay, then they have to retool around just Tatum (a one star model). Either way you have to evaluate the 6 guys who play real minutes not named Tatum or Brown (i.e., Smart, White, Brogdon, Horford, RWIII and Grant Williams). But its different in result and immediacy. If its a Tatum-Brown future, I’d trade Smart and Brogdon, and would not sign Grant Williams, unless it’s a very tradable contract. White is a versitile combo G, and the C’s don’t have much trade value, or make much $$. If its just Tatum, I wouldn’t be in a hurry to cut bait with any of those 6 guys, unless the Brown trade returns incompatible parts.
Brown and White for Garland and some salary filler. Cavs plug that hole on the wing, Celts finally get a PG who can set their offense
As a Cavs fan, no. No way.
No thanks! Celtics offense is fine, even if it’s too much isolation ball by our two young stars. Brown might have to go because of money but we’re certainly not trading team player extraordinaire Derrick White! We are looking for better defense against three point shooting or to install a different defense but that’s about it. Go Celts!
Its funny that both fandoms dont like the trade)
About the Celts, I disagree, their offense late in games is just Tatum shooting pull up jumpers, their D is fine.