2022/23 was more or less the same old story for the Sixers. They had a strong regular season (54-28, the No. 3 seed in the East); Joel Embiid led the league in scoring for the second straight season en route to his first MVP award; and then he once again got injured in the first round of the playoffs, this time suffering a sprained LCL in his right knee.
Embiid only wound up missing two games with the injury thanks in part to a lengthy layoff between rounds, but he said it ordinarily would have kept him sidelined for four-to-six weeks as opposed to the two he actually missed. Still, former head coach Doc Rivers said Embiid “looked very close to normal” upon his return, with the big man later stating he “felt great.”
Even prior to the injury, Embiid was not playing up to his regular season standard, with his scoring, efficiency and assists all down while his turnovers went up. That continued in the team’s second-round ouster to the Celtics. Overall, he averaged 23.7 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 2.7 APG (3.9 TOV) and 2.8 BPG on .431/.179/.905 shooting in nine playoff games (37.3 MPG), compared to 33.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 4.2 APG (3.4 TOV), 1.0 SPG and 1.7 BPG on .548/.330/.857 shooting in 66 regular season contests (34.6 MPG).
Since 2017/18, the Sixers have the second-best regular season record in the league, going 300-173 over that six-year span for a .634 winning percentage (an average of 52 wins over an 82-game season). They made it to the playoffs each time, but have yet to advance past the second round. All of the other teams in the top five in regular season wins over the past six seasons — Milwaukee, Boston, Denver and Toronto — have at least advanced to the NBA Finals.
The goal going forward is pretty straightforward, yet anything but easy: Capitalize on Embiid’s remaining prime years and win the title. The Sixers enter the offseason with some big question marks, so it will be interesting to see how the next couple months play out.
The Sixers’ Offseason Plan
Philadelphia already made a significant change this offseason, firing Rivers and replacing him with Nick Nurse, a former Atlantic Division rival with the Raptors. Nurse developed a reputation as a creative coach who was unafraid to experiment with a wide variety of strategies.
Forward Danuel House just exercised his $4.3MM player option for ’23/24, which was expected after his modest role this past season. His contract isn’t onerous by any means, and maybe Nurse will be able to get more out of him than Rivers did.
My expectation is that Montrezl Harrell will pick up his own $2.76MM player option and the Sixers will guarantee the $6.5MM non-guaranteed portion of De’Anthony Melton‘s team-friendly salary (he will make a total of $8MM). I also expect them to issue Paul Reed a $2.26MM qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent — the young big man has expressed a desire to remain with Philadelphia.
Those moves would give the Sixers nine players with guaranteed deals for a temporary cap charge of $126.5MM (it could go up or down depending on if they give Reed a raise or let him walk).
Of course, the biggest unknown surrounding the Sixers’ offseason is the status of James Harden, who reportedly plans to decline his $35.64MM player option in search of a long-term contract. As with Embiid, Harden’s playoff run was once again inconsistent. He carried Philadelphia with a couple of huge performances in victories against Boston (he was solid in the third win), but struggling mightily in the four losses, including Games 6 and 7.
If Harden declines the option, the Sixers will be left with a $46.9MM cap hold and will have his Bird rights, giving them the ability to go over the cap to re-sign him while offering more money than a rival team can. However, it remains to be seen if Philadelphia is actually willing to give him a huge contract.
Harden, who will turn 34 over the summer, has been repeatedly linked to his former club in Houston over the past several months, with several reporters suggesting it may be a leverage ploy in contract negotiations with Philadelphia. We’ll see what happens.
Harden is clearly past his MVP peak, but he still had a strong year, averaging 20-plus points per game for the 11th straight season while leading the league in assists (10.7) and posting a career-best assist-to-turnover ratio. Is he really worth a max (or close to it) contract at this stage? For one year, sure. A long-term deal, probably not.
The problem is, if Harden walks, the Sixers have no way to replace his ball-handling or play-making abilities. Tyrese Maxey, who is eligible for a rookie scale extension and will certainly be seeking a very lucrative deal of his own, is a terrific scorer, but making plays for others isn’t his forte at the moment.
Re-signing Harden to anything close to a max would push the Sixers into the luxury tax in ’23/24 and they still have several other free agents, including Georges Niang, Jalen McDaniels and Shake Milton. What happens with Harden could have a direct impact on what the team decides to do with its remaining free agents. Either way, Philadelphia will likely try to avoid the punitive second tax apron, which kicks in at $17.5MM above the luxury tax line.
As far as trade chips, Tobias Harris is entering the final year of his $39.3MM contract, which will make him a bit more appealing than he had been in previous seasons. He’s a solid player who willingly adjusted his game after Harden arrived in Philadelphia, and the Sixers won’t want to just dump his salary, especially if Harden walks — they’ll need to make up for his lost production somehow.
I’m sure the Sixers would be happy to shed Furkan Korkmaz‘s $5.37MM expiring contract, and he’s worth keeping an eye on as a salary-matching piece. He requested a trade in February prior to the deadline, but they couldn’t find a suitable deal.
If the 76ers want to make a major win-now move, any offer would likely have to start with Maxey and Harris. I’m not sure how palatable that would be to the front office, but Maxey is the best asset the Sixers have aside from Embiid, and I don’t see the big man going anywhere anytime soon. Maybe that could change if they fail to advance past the second round again next season, but I’d be shocked if he asks out this summer.
Salary Cap Situation
Guaranteed Salary
Joel Embiid ($46,900,000)
- Note: Embiid’s salary will be 35% of the 2023/24 salary cap. This is a projection based on a $134MM cap.
- Tobias Harris ($39,270,150)
- P.J. Tucker ($11,014,500)
- Furkan Korkmaz ($5,370,370)
- Tyrese Maxey ($4,343,920)
- Danuel House ($4,310,250)
- Note: Exercised player option.
- Jaden Springer ($2,226,240)
- De’Anthony Melton ($1,500,000)
- Note: Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted below.
- Total: $114,935,430
Dead/Retained Salary
- None
Player Options
- James Harden ($35,640,000): Bird rights
- Note: Harden reportedly intends to decline his player option.
- Montrezl Harrell ($2,760,026): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $38,400,026
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- De’Anthony Melton ($6,500,000)
- Note: Partial guarantee. Melton’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 3.
- Total: $6,500,000
Restricted Free Agents
- Paul Reed ($2,261,266 qualifying offer / $2,261,266 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $2,261,266
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- None
Extension-Eligible Players
- Tobias Harris (veteran)
- Furkan Korkmaz (veteran)
- Jalen McDaniels (veteran)
- De’Anthony Melton (veteran)
- Shake Milton (veteran)
- Paul Reed (veteran)
- Tyrese Maxey (rookie scale)
Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. McDaniels, Milton, and Reed are only eligible until June 30.
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Mike Scott ($9,510,165 cap hold): Bird rights
- Georges Niang ($4,504,500 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Dewayne Dedmon ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Jalen McDaniels ($1,989,698 cap hold): Bird rights
- Shake Milton ($1,989,698 cap hold): Bird rights
- Paul Millsap ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Kyle O’Quinn ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Myles Powell ($1,774,999 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $25,738,154
Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Sixers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
- Trade exception: $2,448,846
Note: The Sixers would lose access to the full mid-level exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron. If the Sixers go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.
Unless they can extend Maxey for a reasonable contract, let it go to RFA. He isn’t a max player.
He’s an 18-19M a year guy. Collin Sexton, Powell, KPJ are my salary comps. Not Jordan Poole, which already looks like an overpay.
I expect Springer, Furkan, Harrell and Tobias to be elsewhere.
Tobias needs to be dealt for 2 palyers.
I expect them to figure something out with Harden -either he stays on a reasonable deal, S&T, or he walks. The latter being the least likely – that Houston nonsense is his agent and his people putting fake news out there.
They need a better bench, a starting PF and SF, and more reliable shooting.
Morey will need to be very creative this offseason but I see them targeting FAs like Seth Curry, Daniel Green (ugh), Dillon Brooks, Oubre, Craig, Crowder, Warren, Reddish, Ross, JRich (another ugh), Barton.
My expectations are tempered, I don’t know that they come out of this offseason improved at all tbh.
Lol, sexton was coming off injury, norm is a terrible defender and that was years ago, kpj literally was given away because of locker room stuff. Simons got paid too, not just Poole, that’s the rate for young shooter creaters and maxey has been better than both those guys.
Simon’s contract started at 22M. Poole starts at 28M.
If they had to settle on a Simon’s level contract, that’s not the worst thing bc it never eclipsed 30M.
Idk how you view Maxey as some stout defensive guard. They are pretty similar metrics wise and the same .8 steals per game last year.
Maxey and McDaniel are huge assets
If Harden stays,
McDaniel is gone
Harris needs to be traded for the future plan
Do not want Harden here in Houston
This is what I think
76ers are a better team than Heat. If 76ers were in the Finals, they might be able to win championship.
76ers coach 10% overachieved
Sixers could not get by Boston, the Heat did, therefore
I mean, you should be smart enough to know that that’s not that simple. Bucks were bounced in the 1st round – does that make them bad? Does MIA winning the East really mean they were the best team?
The Sixers are regularly less than the sum of their parts. Whether it’s coaching, injuries, head cases, or aging stars, they usually find a way to underwhelm.
Until that changes, it’s hard to say they’re better when they disappoint year after year in the playoffs.
Of all the NBA teams to not have a finals appearance in the last few years, I think Philly is the best one. They just need a good coach.
Hardens clock is definitely ticking though.
I would dump Harden and his Chicken wing move
I would love to sign Irving to a one year deal
I don’t know if that that possible, but I would try and do it
I wouldn’t sign Kyrie for a dollar even if I had twelve open roster spots and no salary commitments. Talented dude but completely radioactive ☢️ to a franchise. How does anybody not know and see that by now?
Let Harden walk and go after DeRozen.
You might, might.. be able to do a Tobias deal for DeRozan and the 29 1st and keep Harden. ISO ball or bust at that point.
Daryl Morey has destroyed this team and the future. I said that way before we traded Ben Simmons. I think we had a deal on the table where we could have had halliburton for Simmons and we probably could have kept Drummond and Curry possibly and our draft picks. Morey’s an idiot. James harden is a ball hog and can only play in a two-man game or kick it out. His comment recently about wanting to have freedom basically means he just wants to do whatever he wants to do like dribble the ball up barely cross The half court line leaving us precious seconds that we could be setting up our team offense. He stinks. I said when they made the trade for harden that this would destroy the sixers in the future. Look where we’re at. We have no draft picks our hands are tied with harden. We have no salary availability. It was not a wise move to get harden. I would have totally taken the haliburton deal on the table and we may have even won the championship because we would have had better depth halliburton was second I think in the league in assists and he’s younger and wouldn’t have financially taxed us as much as harden besides keeping our first round picks. Morey needs to go he destroyed this team. Does anybody agree with me? Should we have taken halliburton when we had the deal on the table for Simmons? Imagine having Drummond who is a terrific backup center rim protector rebounder and having a great three-point shooter still in curry and our draft picks that we traded to Brooklyn. Our future would be okay we’d have more flexibility. I can manage the team better than Morey can most of us could throw him out of town
I love Halliburton too and it’s fair to wonder what would have happened with a Simmons for TH trade but man Curry couldn’t guard a traffic cone and he was hunted mercilessly in the playoffs.
I’ve come around to moving on from Harden. Ideally a contender wants him and you sign and trade him for something. Deal Tobi for similar contracts (ideally two, spread the production around). Whatever the Sixers do, Maxey MUST stay. His talent is crazy for a guy his size. I fully believe he’s a star, if not superstar, in the making.
PHI went all-in with Harden, and probably has to re-sign him as their PG, make a few cosmetic roster changes and hope Nurse is the difference. There is vitrually no chance that PHI gets anything substantial back in a S&T for Harden (a protected future 1st maybe, and that is essentially for taking the matching salary).
If they don’t bring him back, then they’d actually be best off if Harden signs with HOU (or another cap space team). That way they can bribe the acquiring team to do a S&T into their cap space to create a TPE. If they has a small bad contract they want to get rid of, maybe that can substitute for 2nds. The TPE, which could be gigantic, is probably the best asset they could hope to get back for Harden. It allows them to reset their payroll, use their full MLE, re-sign their own FAs who were productive for them last year (McDaniel and Niang), and take back more salary in trades than they send out.
The Moreyon Error ……
His devotion to Harden has killed another team. Sixers went from the Process to the Error. Both failed to get them to the Finals.
Not a Nurse fan. But honestly, I don’t really know him well.
I know Harden wants one last big payday. But seriously why would anyone give it to him. He’s a one way player. Best case scenario is to sign n trade Harden. I just don’t see who would want him. And Rockets should be last team to want him. Imo that’s all smoke from Hardens camp.
You let him walk and sign VanVleet. He is already a team leader with his coach here. He’s solid on offense and defense. He makes this team better and is cheaper than Harden.
If you let harden walk we are still cap strapped and have 13 mil to replace him with. Barring a Tobias trade we are in salary cap hell with or without him. I don’t blame Morey the way you do, I like him but don’t love him. He walked into a cap nightmare and has at least gotten rid of some of that if you are unbiased. Keep James and we are what we are with a new coach…let him walk and we have minimal resources to replace him and fill the roster out. If you let him walk you waste another year of Joel’s prime (and I don’t suspect he has many prime years left) and might as well trade him. We are in a tough spot salary and roster construction wise.
Moreyon has been awful since the Rockets days. It’s not just about Philly. He miss managed Yao’s injuries. Then gave away Lowry. He got lucky with Harden. And built his career of that trade. His analytics tells him nothing about building a winning team. Analytics doesn’t explain players wanting to play with one another. It’s just a tool not a way of doing business.
Harden is a washed player. Who never cared enough about taking care of his body. He’s and old 33 yr old. Yet he went after him. Instead of taking better offers for Simmons. He’s not a basketball guy. He’s a numbers guy. Who doesn’t understand what it takes to win as a Team.
Tobias can be traded. Unfortunately the one who should have been let go is Morey.
76ers have to find someone to sign and trade for Harden… Preferably someone durable with Thibs 2.0 in town…
Otherwise they are a 2nd round exit at best…
Sixers need to TRY get something back for Harden, here’s some quick ideas:
1. Harden for Kyrie
2. Harden for PG13
3. Harden for Beal
Definitely don’t bring him back cause he’s now old and going to be expensive. Although he’s not in peak form he is still a good player but he’s not even close to max anymore. He’s a 20-10 guy with poor defence who’s 34, similarly to CP3 he’s going to start going downhill quickly and anything over 25mil will look terrible on the books.
That said we have the MVP in Joel Embiid and need to build around him. By hiring Nick Nurse it shows they want to stay a really competitive side and although they will retool they would be drastically rebuilding I don’t think.
Just quickly going back over to my suggested trade ideas.
1. Kyrie and Luka looked terrible together, Dallas similarly wants to keep their star or risk really falling off. So we just switch guys.
2. Kawhi and PG are just always injured and it’s cost them year after year. Kawhi has also said he wants a traditional point guard. Harden gives them buckets if they need but is mainly there to give them a bunch of playmaking and isn’t as often injured.
3. Harden for Beal, Wizards didn’t make the playoffs cause I think they have to many scorers and no one steering the ship. Harden gives them a leader and direction. Sixers get back Beal who slots in at the 2 guard with Maxey at the 1 both playing off Embiid