Running it back with the group that got the Heat to the NBA Finals this offseason might be impossible unless the team is willing to pay a massive tax bill, as Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald details. Guards Gabe Vincent and Max Strus, who earned minimum salaries in 2022/23, are each expected to command an eight-figure salary when they sign new contracts as unrestricted free agents this summer.
The Heat have always intended to become a taxpaying team in 2023/24, Jackson writes, but they project to be over the luxury tax threshold even before accounting for new deals for Vincent and/or Strus. Re-signing both players for starting salaries in the range of $10-12MM per year would push the projected team salary into the neighborhood of $200MM, which would result in a tax bill in excess of $120MM.
According to Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report, rival executives are dubious that the Heat are willing to make that kind of tax payment. As such, it seems unlikely that both Vincent and Strus will be back unless the club can find a way to dump salary in a trade. Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Duncan Robinson would be the best candidates to be involved in such a deal, and Pincus notes that Herro’s four-year contract probably makes him the best option if the club is seeking additional long-term flexibility.
Here’s more on the Heat:
- Lowry restored his value to some extent with a strong playoff run, but his expiring deal (worth nearly $30MM) still has limited value, writes Sean Deveney of Heavy.com. A source tells Deveney that if the Heat don’t end up using Lowry’s expiring contract in a trade, they should be comfortable bringing him back for the final year of that deal. “It’s not a bad option to have, the way he played,” the source said. “It’s not a desperate kind of thing.”
- Omer Yurtseven, who is eligible for restricted free agency, was asked on Wednesday what his priorities in free agency will be, tweets Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel. “I think my priority is to play,” said Yurtseven, who was limited to nine games in 2022/23 in large part due to ankle surgery in the fall. If the Heat opt not to issue a qualifying offer to Yurtseven, he’d be free to seek out the team willing to give him the biggest role.
- Heat wing Haywood Highsmith told reporters on Wednesday that he expects the team to guarantee his $1.9MM salary for next season by hanging onto him beyond July 15, per Winderman (Twitter link). Highsmith added that his goal is to continue to work toward becoming a lock-down defender.
- Orlando Robinson‘s two-way contract with the Heat will expire on June 30, but the big man has committed to playing for Miami’s Summer League team, he said today (Twitter link via Winderman). The Heat have the ability to make Robinson a restricted free agent by issuing him a qualifying offer equivalent to another one-year two-way deal.
Most teams (owners) will pay the luxury tax IF they consider themselves contenders with their existing roster. You would think MIA does, getting to the ECF three times (and Finals twice) in 4 years. The threshold question is not whether they’re going to bring the same guys back (few teams do that), but whether cost, not better alternatives on the court, will drive those decisions. With their best player in his mid-30’s, I’m skeptical.
I wouldn’t mind the Big Yurt going to San Antonio to back up Victor.
The window is now for Miami. Herro is not the true scorer they lack. Beal is …..
Dame is ……. Heat have to go for it now. Even it means paying the luxury tax. A true consistent scorer on this team. And they will be tough to beat.
What do you give up for either of them?
Good question. I’m sure Dame is more expensive. For Beal – Duncan, Herro, Jovic, Martin or Strus plus picks.
Strus is a FA, but you dont think giving up all those pieces would effect them?
Yeah but you can’t get Beal unless you roll the dice. You get players who want a part of this. Heat were in Finals lol. Players will want to sign up. Build that bench.
I just dont see how that makes them better than what they already had. To me, this is giving up assets to have a similar type of player replace what you had
Assuming both are on the table – Dame is the obvious choice.
Though contracts are somewhat similar in cap hits (both massive), Beal seems to have slid down in health more. Except for a freakish 21′ season, Dame has been sturdier and is the much better choice between the two – better overall scorer, Steph-like range, facilitator.
Wish Highsmith would have started most of the year, but hopefully they’ll have guys in front of him this year. They had multiple guys in the g league I would have given looks to over Zeller, but it is what it is
Always expected to lose Strus and Nnamdi. Heat culture is sometimes letting those guys go and show everyone what they can be with what they are now. I really dont want to lose Strus, but knew it was happening the moment they signed him 2 years ago, even with his bird rights. Didnt expect to be able to keep Caleb though, so anything is possible.
Yurtseven being hurt most of this year was really unfortunate b/c there was a couple of matchups I would have rather seen him than Zeller, like against the Knicks who werent guarding him at all. Hopefully they keep him. If not, Orlando Robinson is a slightly less than version of him, and showed he can essentially take his spot if its cheaper/necessary
I would only move any of those guys in a trade for certain players, the same way I’ve continued to say. The Heat also have essentially 4 picks to trade now. I did mention those types of players last year in the Kevin Durant scenario, at the time being Lowry, Herro, Strus, Jovic, and 3 1sts and pick swaps, but that was the type of example of the players I’m talking about…
I would only trade for people like Jaylen Brown or Kawhi Leonard or Paul George, or Draymond Green, Jaren Jackson jr, Scottie Barnes, LeBron, Anthony Davis, Mikal Bridges or if those types of players are available…wings and 4s/smallball 5s that can defend, and preferably shoot. I would also be interested in the lesser tier of similar type of players, most of whom are still super young and likely shouldnt be traded.
If Lowry gets moved, someone to replace him that can defend at guard, like Chris Paul. I also think we’re losing Strus, so a spacer that can play the 3/4/2 and defend adequately. As of now, I dont see Jovic being ready for that spot at the 4 for another year, although he did significantly improve this year past what i thought in such a short time, from where he was
The other idea would be to start Herro at PG, and add a 3 and D wing, as well as addressing that 4 spot, and let Lowry come off the bench, but I personally prefer Herro as a 6th man, the same way I said before this year proved that
Yurt getting hurt was a “big” loss for the HEAT this season – just because Yurt’s progression was coming along fine.
His progression was somewhat similar to the slow yet steady pace that Gabe, Max had some seasons ago.
Like I said on an earlier post, if John Collins is actively shopped by the HAWKS, he’s someone I’d think will fit great with the HEAT.
Teams like the HEAT projected to hit the 2nd tax apron the next cycle, this offseason will be the best time to hunt for a top-tier star.
AD for Bam is the only trade that makes sense.