The 2023 NBA Finals, which tip off on Thursday night, will pit the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference against the No. 8 seed in the East, but the matchup may not be as lopsided as their places in the standings suggest.
Despite finishing the regular season as the West’s top team, the Nuggets weren’t considered a powerhouse entering the playoffs. They lost 10 of 17 games down the stretch in March and April and had only the sixth-best net rating in the NBA (+3.3) during the season. They also didn’t have a recent history of deep playoff runs, coming off a first-round elimination in 2022 and having made it beyond the second round just once in the Nikola Jokic era.
Denver has been the most dominant team of the postseason though, winning 12 of 15 games and posting a playoff-best +8.0 net rating during a run that saw them eliminate stars like LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Anthony Edwards.
The Heat, meanwhile, battled injuries and inconsistency all season long, winning just 44 games and losing their first play-in game (to Atlanta) before completing a comeback victory over Chicago to claim the East’s final postseason berth. An early playoff exit appeared likely at that point, especially after sharpshooter Tyler Herro broke his hand in Game 1 of round one.
Instead, the Heat knocked off the title-favorite Bucks in five games, dispatched the Knicks in six games, and held off the No. 2 Celtics in a seven-game Eastern Conference Finals. Miami, whose +4.6 postseason net rating is second among all playoff clubs, has looked more like the team that came within one basket of making the NBA Finals in 2022 than the one that endured an up-and-down regular season.
The Heat may be a No. 8 seed – only the second in NBA history to make the Finals – but this is a battle-tested group that has significantly outperformed its regular season record and has plenty of playoff experience.
The Nuggets, who haven’t lost in Denver during the postseason and have looked like the NBA’s best team since the regular season ended, will have home-court advantage and enter the Finals as major favorites — BetOnline.ag has their odds to win the series at -405, with Miami listed as a +325 underdog.
Denver is also the popular pick among experts. John Hollinger of The Athletic laid out his reasoning for taking the Nuggets in six games, while a scout, a coach, and an executive who spoke anonymously to Sam Amick, Darnell Mayberry, and Josh Robbins of The Athletic all picked Denver in six too.
Over at ESPN, the Heat got a little more support, but 12 of 16 NBA reporters and analysts still chose the Nuggets to win the series, with only four – Bobby Marks, Israel Gutierrez, Nick DePaula, and Jorge Sedano – taking Miami.
The fact that the Nuggets are widely expected to come out on top will mean little to the Heat, who were considered even longer shots to beat Milwaukee or Boston. The Bucks were a -1200 betting favorite over Miami at the start of their series, while the Celtics were at -550.
With Game 1 set to tip off in a matter of hours, we want to get your predictions for this year’s NBA Finals. Will the Heat complete their improbable run and become the first No. 8 seed in league history to win a championship, or will Jokic lead the Nuggets to their first ever title?
Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!
I haven’t had a good year with predictions. I took the Celtics to come out of the east. Bzzt, wrong answer. I wasn’t sure who was coming out of the West but it wasn’t going to be the Nuggets. Bzzt, wrong answer.
So the finals of course I’m picking the Heat and that’s for 3 reasons. I’m a huge believer in “you have to get there first, before you can win.” Miami’s been there, several of their players have been there. Nuggets not so much yet. As with the Sacramento kings, watch out for the Nuggets (again) next year, they’re going to be very tough.
#2, coaching. Enough said. #3, grit, toughness, defense, and Jimmy. Just the makeup of the team and the bite of the underdog is not just an intimidating bark.
I also thought the Celtics would pull it out. But I picked the Nuggets, and the evidence is pretty impressive:
This postseason, the Nuggets rank:
First in offensive rating
First in net rating
First in rebounding percentage
First in assist to turnover ratio
First in true shooting percentage
First in turnover percentage
At -450, the implied odds of the Nuggets winning the Finals is over 80%.
One quick question, who’s that guy you need on the floor in the last 3 minutes of a tight game that will make plays for you on the Denver Nuggets? That Scrappy, essential, doesn’t show up in the stat sheet guy? With the Celtics it’s Marcus Smart. With the heat it’s Kyle Lowry.
These guys always give up their body, get the loose ball, make a tough bucket or grab a big rebound, get a steal etc. Who’s that guy on the Nuggets? Do they have that guy?
Bruce Brown, obviously.
Bruce Brown might get you a bucket or play tough defense or get you a rebound but I don’t think he’s “that guy.” If he didn’t fill the stat sheet like he does I don’t think his intangibles carry him. Marcus smart, Kyle Lowry, those guys could have zeros across the board but you have them on the floor the last 3 minutes of the game if your life depends on it. Bruce Brown is a nice story kind of like Caleb Martin is a nice story. A guy from out of nowhere that is bringing it strong.
KCP, Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon. Next question.
Bruce Brown isn’t even a starter and you have him on the floor the last 3 minutes of the game? Who sits.., KCP the other name you mentioned for the last 3 minutes of the game? Gordon your other name? So then either Jamal Murray or Jokic or Porter Jr is sitting.
No no, Denver doesn’t have that guy.., you just threw out the names of their grunts who do Dirty Work. Not every player that does the dirty work is that guy who will win a game for you just being on the floor the way Marcus Smart does, and the way Kyle Lowry does. There’s very few of these type of players.
And the only reason I bring this up or ask this question is I think it gives a check mark in Miami’s Ledger. They need all the check marks they can get LOL
They play the starters last 3 mins so Browns a strange answer here
They are a collection of parts , not really a that guy …. Such an efficient offense , I think the clock strikes midnight here for Mia in 5
I would agree with that rain delay (collection of parts.)
In What can be only termed as a Major Surprise,
The Minnesota Timberpuppies in 6…
The Heat haven’t beat the Nuggets since 2020 when the Nuggets starters included Paul Millsap, Torrey Craig, and Monte Morris. Nuggs 6-0 since then.
The Heat don’t match up well.
Nuggets are a better team, few would argue that.
The best team doesn’t always win though.
The REAL MVP will step up Nugs in 5
This is going to be a great matchup. Two high IQ teams going at it. It will definitely be tough for Miami as Jokic is a zone right now that reminds of 2011 Dirk. It’s going to be hard to force turnovers and get out on the fast break. But the advantage Miami has is they are one of the best midrange shooting teams and Denver is one of the worst at defending the midrange.
What do you mean by “Nuggets were not considered a powerhouse”? Consistently 1st in the west, two of the starters are back, both sharpshooters plus a two time MVP and great off-season signings.
I mean, “powerhouse” is subjective, but their 53 wins were very low for a No. 1 seed. And as I mentioned in the article, they didn’t play well during the final quarter of the season, they didn’t have a recent history of deep playoff runs, and didn’t have a top-five net rating this season.
A very good team, yes, but I don’t think there was any widespread expectation that they were going to dominate the first three rounds of the playoffs.