With free agency winding down, we have a clearer idea of what teams are going to look like for the 2023/24 season. Of course, there is still plenty of time between now and the start of training camps in late September, but many teams seem to be nearly regular-season-ready.
A clearer idea of what next season’s rosters will look like means a consensus should start to emerge on where teams stand in the NBA’s pecking order. However, it appears as though most teams in the league are trending toward building for the playoffs. Only a handful of clubs look like they’re planning on prioritizing youth development over a 2024 playoff appearance.
The Wizards sent off former franchise mainstay Bradley Beal this summer in the first of what became a series of deals that look to have Washington resetting its roster. Players like re-signed forward Kyle Kuzma and new additions Jordan Poole and Tyus Jones could keep Washington competitive, but the franchise lacks an All-Star to build around.
Teams like Detroit, San Antonio, Charlotte and Orlando are built around young cores, but there’s a sense that all four franchises will improve on their previous seasons.
Of course, the elephants in the room are the potential Damian Lillard and James Harden deals that would shake up the league’s hierarchy.
If Portland sends out Lillard, it likely means the franchise is planning for an all-out rebuild. However, the Trail Blazers were a competitive team for much of last season and, if they convince Lillard to stay, they could talk themselves into being a playoff contender. On the other hand, if Lillard ended up in Miami, his preferred destination, it would likely place the Heat among the top two or three teams in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are fresh off an NBA Finals appearance but lost veteran starters Gabe Vincent and Max Strus to free agency.
As for a potential Harden trade, the Clippers are the reported frontrunner for Harden is he’s dealt. Adding Harden likely moves the Clippers into the upper echelon of the Western Conference, though they’re a probable playoff team as is. Same goes for the Sixers. With or without Harden, Philadelphia likely sees itself in the playoffs.
The implementation of the Play-In Tournament means teams are more incentivized than ever to be competitive, especially after a play-in team in Miami made the Finals last year. Teams like Utah, Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, Indiana, Atlanta, Chicago, Toronto and Brooklyn seem like they could go either way. For example, the Rockets committed significant money to win-now pieces like Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks in free agency but still have several young players to develop.
Then there are the teams at the top. The Suns added Beal to a star-studded core but turned over a huge chunk of their roster and may lack continuity. The Nuggets are in good position to win the conference again but lost Bruce Brown in free agency. The Celtics added Kristaps Porzingis but shipped out Marcus Smart. The Bucks re-signed Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez but lost in the first round last year.
Beyond the obvious names, the Knicks and Cavaliers appear to have made on-paper improvements while the Lakers, Grizzlies, Kings and Warriors could pop out in the West.
Despite knowing what rosters will look like for the most part, there seems to be plenty of variability between every team in each conference.
That leads us to our Community Shootaround discussion topic of the day: Which teams in each conference do you consider the best bets to make the postseason? Which surprise teams will make the playoffs? Who do you think will come out of each conference on top?
Let us know what you think by taking to the comments of this post.
The East ——-
I definitely see Dame in Miami.
Therefore Heat and Bucks are top dogs.
Top 4 teams to me are Bucks, Heat, Celtics, Cavs. In that order. Sixers are losing Harden. Even with Him Cavs are better. Imo Cavs grow up and take a big step up. Teams better take them serious.
Sixers are a playoff team. They take a step back this yr.
Knicks are solid with moves they made. They need one more to challenge top 4.
Bklyn needs the Ben situation settled.
Hawks need to figure out what they are doing. Both are playoff teams.
Pacers and Raptors will also challenge for playoffs. That’s it for me ……
DeM DeR ……. please we need you in NYK
Some will change course as the season progresses due to injuries and on court performance but I think the only 2 teams in the league that don’t have post season aspirations are the Spurs and the Blazers.
East:
Bucks, as long as Griffin keeps their defense solid, are still top dogs in the east. And if they improve their 3pt defense, that will be even more true. Giannis, Jrue, and Middleton is still an awesome core, and they’ve proven they can weather injuries pretty well.
Celtics are #2, and it’s not close. Porzingis diversifies their offense, White is a better facilitator and primary ball-handler than Smart without much of a defensive downgrade, and a full training camp should smooth out the wrinkles that came from holding on to Udoka’s system without him. The big thing is going to be the PF slot. Horford is getting older and slower. I feel like Tatum is going to end up playing the 4 a lot this season. Maybe they run sets with Porzingis at the 4 and Williams at the 5 too. Going to be interesting.
My Cavs are #3 in my book. The extra shooting from Strus and Niang will really help basically everyone, take the pressure off Mitchell’s shooting, and give Garland more space to run the offense. The ability to play both Mobley and Allen locks down everything on D. If Mobley takes a step forward on offense, we’ll be awesome this year. And that’s not discussing the fact that Isaiah Mobley is almost certain to step up. Guy already looks ready to play a big role. Not having to constantly shuffle our lineup around to fill an obvious hole also helps a lot. The biggest thing we lacked last year was always consistency.
The Heat are #4, mostly due to uncertainty beyond Butler and Adebayo. Their current roster looks deflated, and doubts are growing about whether they can get Dame. If they get him, and manage to fill out their roster with slam-dunk minimum signings and catch lightning in a bottle with more undrafted guys stepping up, they could easily take one of the top three. But if they don’t, and have some bad luck? They could fall out of the playoffs entirely just as easily. It’s just too unpredictable at the moment.
The Knicks are #5. Depth, versatility, strong defense, and a legit star in Brunson leading the way. I’m not a believer in Randle, but he’s still going to rack up boards and buckets like clockwork in the regular season. And some of their young guns could step up as well. Things look good in the Bronx! I’d be tempted to have them in the #4 spot if the possibility of the Heat landing Dame wasn’t there. I’m happy for Knicks fans, after suffering for as long as they have, even if I’m annoyed at losing to them last year =p
The Hawks are probably 6th. Yeah, really. If Snyder manages to push the right buttons, their backcourt has the potential to be scary. Okongwu is also really underrated just because he’s undersized for a Center, but his defense and his offensive coordination with Trae are great. And with the load of wings they can run to create different looks and a fast offense, they could be a really tough matchup for any team. I just don’t have any faith that their defense will hold up even with Okongwu and Murray at their disposal. Outside of them, Capela and Jalen Johnson are the only positive defenders on the team. A trade of Capela for a true stopper at the 4 or on the wing would be a good move imo. Okongwu doesn’t have the range to play alongside Capela, and I think Jalen is best fit for the 3 or as a mobile guard-everything type.
#7 is the Sixers, and it should be obvious why. Their roster churn has finally hit its logical conclusion, and I don’t think they can get enough back to compete unless Maxey goes supernova. And Embiid choking in the postseason as he always does won’t help them. The only time I can ever recall him being his MVP self in the postseason is the series against the Wizards in 2021, where he averaged 24 minutes a game. Even against the Hawks in Round 2 that year, he turned the ball over almost five times a game despite positive shooting numbers. He just had Simmons being worse to hide behind. Plus he *will* get injured again. No question.
#8 is one of the Magic, Pacers, or Raptors. Whichever has their guys step up the most. I’d favor the Pacers, since the Raptors are now missing FVV and Paolo still has a lot of growing to do for the Magic (though I’m excited for them too).
The Bulls look cooked and disorganized. The Nets don’t inspire confidence in me at the moment and only made the playoffs last season because they had a big cushion when they blew things up. And I have no faith in the Pistons or Hornets. The Wizards are just entering a rebuild. Bottom 5 in any order.
West:
#1 is the Nuggets. Obviously. Losing Bruce Brown hurts, but I expect Christian Braun to step in vey well. He has elite defensive instincts and a good feel for scoring. Everything else is basically as awesome as it was after the ring ceremony.
#2 is the Lakers, because they finally have the depth and versatility around LeBron and AD to weather their absences. Not sold on Jaxson Hayes at all, but I am a big believer in Austin Reaves. The way he impacts the game’s flow is hard to overstate, as is his natural chemistry with any and all of his teammates. And having the pieces to play D’Angelo Russel in a more off-ball role to take advantage of his catch-and-shoot game is an underrated asset. Both LeBron and AD are big injury risks, but they’re also experienced superstars. As long as they’re healthy come playoff time, the Lakers have a shot at Ring 18.
#3 is the Suns. They have all the firepower any team could want, and Beal being such a good off-ball operator in addition to his shot creation is an underrated positive to their title hopes, and it makes him a solid third leg to the Booker-Durant two-man game that already showed out in the postseason last year. But their depth isn’t great. *Especially* in the front court. Ayton was an outright liability on last year’s team (they were measurably better with him on the bench), and it only got worse once the Suns added Durant. Unless Vogel can unlock Ayton as a super-defender like he’s promised, Ayton won’t be much of a help to this team, especially with his contract being so big. And I’m not sold on Vogel either. He’s never been a good offensive coach. For all that he does get the most out of a roster on defense, his teams haven’t been great on offense. Ever. Even the championship Lakers weren’t even top 10 in the league in scoring, and it was worse than that pre-Bubble. It’s something to watch. But in the end, the amount of talent on this team is impossible to ignore.
#4 is the Warriors. Because Steph Curry. You have a healthy Steph, you’re a championship contender. A full season of Wiggins, better chemistry, and a new wrinkle in the offense with CP3 bringing potential pick-and-roll and midrange to the playbook all look good. If young guys like Kuminga and Moody step up, they could become very imposing. But the age of their roster is of concern. And if the defensive issues of last season persist, there *will* be problems.
The Kings are #5. Fox is a beast, Sabonis makes a fluid offense simple, and the whole roster can score. However, they still lack a true #2 next to Fox. Keegan Murray isn’t there yet, and Sabonis isn’t a great option. Bringing back Barnes might be good for chemistry and consistency, but not for the hopes of improvement. But they showed enough last season that I feel confident in placing them here.
Memphis takes #6 almost solely because of Morant being out for 25 games. Smart will help their backcourt defense and combine effectively with JJJ. And not having Brooks should help with balancing their shot selection and accuracy. But replacing his defense isn’t something they can accomplish with one player, even if Brooks is not going to be ticking off opponents with jabber or unnecessary fouls. Konchar, Clarke, and Roddy are all good at specific things on defense, but don’t account for everything that Brooks did (and Roddy needs more time to develop). Early success may come down to how much JJJ and Bane can step up.
#7 on down is a literal crapshoot. Are the Clippers healthy? How about the Pels? Do the Thunder take a big step? Or do they maybe consolidate their assets for a big splash? Do the Timberwolves get things right with their twin towers? Can Utah sustain a hot start this year? Are the Mavs for real with Kyrie and Luka after a training camp to create an actual offense? Too many factors to gauge at the moment.
West:
If Kyrie and Luka Make it work, Dallas is a playoff team. They need more guys like DFS, a guy they.miss a Lot for hid pn and off the court conyributions.
Suns, if they develop chemistry, are the top candidate. Nuggets second.
Clippers, if healthy, if motivated, have great pieces for a championship run.
GSW has Curry. You can’t count them out.
Lakers for me, win in continuity, but los depth. And experience off the bench. If they don’t trade for a Caruso type, that Will ve missed come playoff time. They need a bruising 5 to relieve workload on Davis.
OKC is still green. Their ceiling is the first round, as for the next season.
Kings Will be very good, but need to keep improving. Fox is a Big time player. Sabonis an outstanding and complete offensive talent.
Spurs are rebuilding. Victor Will suffer a bit at first, but he’s a real phenom, Will be sensational with his size and talent.
Blazers are in rebuild. I like Scoot.Great talent. Built like a tank.
Houston Will compete for the playoffs. Will get better than last year. Still needs development.
NO Will dosappoint. Have great players,but can’t Make it really gel. If they miss the playoffs, it’s time to trade Zion. For at least 5 first rounders