For the most part, it’s easy to tell who the NBA’s contenders and bottom-feeders are before the season. Similarly, fans can usually predict what a large part of a team’s given rotation is going to look like. But every year, there are several instances of unexpected players and teams breaking out or disappointing.
This season is no different and, through the first portion of the season, there are already some surprising trends and storylines.
In my view, the most disappointing start to the season for any team has to be the Grizzlies. Teams like the Pistons, Wizards, Spurs and Trail Blazers were expected to trend toward the bottom of the standings with young cores and growing pains. But the Grizzlies were the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference last year and acquired former Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart. Of course, Memphis has been dealt an incredibly difficult hand with the 25-game suspension of Ja Morant and injuries to Brandon Clarke, Steven Adams and Smart, along with many more, and any team would be hard-pressed to overcome that.
Seasons are all about hot and cold streaks, and both the Clippers and Warriors are going through slumps after respective strong starts to the year. The Clippers began the year 3-1 and have gone 1-6 since acquiring James Harden, including losing six straight. The Warriors began the year 6-2 but have now also lost six in a row. I didn’t anticipate there to be as many growing pains with the Clippers and Harden from the jump, but I still expect they’ll get into form.
Not all surprises are bad though, and there have been plenty of pleasant ones to begin this year. The Timberwolves share the top spot in the west with the defending-champion Nuggets, which is eye-popping at first until you consider their elite defensive play and Anthony Edwards‘ unsurprising breakout.
The Rockets and Thunder look well ahead of the development curve, and hold two of the top six spots in the west. Chet Holmgren immediately looks like a star in his first NBA season for Oklahoma City while the Rockets have been aided by the additions of their veteran players and coach Ime Udoka.
For my money, the most surprising early season development is Dereck Lively II‘s immediate importance to the 9-4 Mavericks. In his one season at Duke, Lively averaged just 20.6 minutes per game, though his role grew exponentially as the year went on. Still, when Dallas drafted him, I expected the franchise to bring him along slowly and allow him to get adjusted to the NBA.
Instead, Lively surged to the top of the depth chart, taking a choke-hold on the starting center position at just 19 years old. He’s averaging 8.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.7 stocks (steals plus blocks) in his first 12 games. His rise to the top has opened up so many things for the Mavs’ offense and Lively is a huge part of what looks like a top dog in the conference.
That brings us to our topic of the day: What early season trends have most surprised you the most? Do you agree with any of our choices? What players and teams have most exceeded or fallen short of expectations?
Take to the comments to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to reading your input.
Rockets. They weren’t supposed to gel this quickly, but huge props to FVV, Brooks, Jeff Green, Ime and especially Rafael Stone for making all the right FA deals. They’re not a serious championship contender this year, but it’ll be pretty interesting to see what they do next year after a full year together.
They’ll be 33-49 and in the lottery by season’end.
Maybe not objectively the biggest surprise but I personally didn’t expect Dallas to start so hot. Plenty of time for Kyrie meltdown tho
Still early for me. I like to give it 20-25 gms.
I’d say Philly has surprised. Basically addition by subtraction.
As a Wolves fan I had hope for this season and I know its early, but the returns so far has been surprising for sure.
Wins over Boston, Denver, GSW twice on the road, what could be argued as a schedule loss on that road back to back vs. Phoenix leave me feeling optimistic.
What’s even more surprising is that they’re winning games they play badly. Spurs and Pelicans as examples, those are games that Wolves of the past few years lose more often than not, and an ugly win is still a win. Wolves had worst record in the NBA last year vs. bottom-5 teams, winning just 2-3 of those games would’ve kept them out of the play-in, so even if its ugly, if the job gets done, that’s huge.
Don’t expect them to hold the #1 seed but I don’t think its a stretch to say they stay clear of the play-in and could finish top 4 for home-court in round one of playoffs.
I know its VERY early to say this, but it is also just generally a bit jarring to see what may be the real beginning of a changing of the guard so to speak in the West. MIN, OKC, SAC all in top 5 as of now, DEN still there, and DAL has recovered well so far from last year’s debacle. Teams like Suns or Clippers could easily start climbing once healthy and with more time to gel, but right now just interesting to see some fresh faces leading the conference right now.
Phoenix missing Ayton more than any can comprehend is the surprise. A superior lack of internal defense is showing.
Minny is the top surprise due to the fact that Gobert is not playing defense on offense like last year. It’s done wonders for their offense that’s for sure.
Kat is better about about Ant being the number one guy. There was a certain fight going on with those two last year if we’re being honest.
All have over looked Orlando for some reason. They are improving on what they did last year and are playing good, clean, hard hoops as well as anyone is right now.
The Thunder are not a developmental team by any stretch and are starting to finally get it.
Yours truly has been working them hard to make them realize how big they are.
Sans the playoff expiernce side of the equation, they are legit to win the west and are the best team not named Boston to win it as of this time.