With the Rockets still pushing for a play-in spot and in the midst of a four-game winning streak, the Western Conference’s postseason teams aren’t yet set in stone. But Houston remains 3.5 games back of the No. 10 Warriors and may not have center Alperen Sengun available for the rest of the season, so it would be a major surprise if the Rockets move into the top 10.
Assuming Houston falls short of the play-in cut-off, the four Western Conference teams in the play-in tournament will almost certainly come from this group of six clubs, which is currently separated by five games in the standings:
- New Orleans Pelicans (39-26)
- Sacramento Kings (38-27)
- Phoenix Suns (38-28)
- Dallas Mavericks (38-29)
- Los Angeles Lakers (36-31)
- Golden State Warriors (34-31)
It’s an awfully loaded group of teams in the play-in mix. If we assume the Pelicans and Kings hang onto their top-six spots, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Stephen Curry would have to secure their playoff berths via the play-in tournament, and two title hopefuls would end up headed home before the first round tips off.
The Suns, just a half-game back of the No. 6 seed and with their big three (Durant, Booker, and Bradley Beal) healthy, look like a strong candidate to move out of play-in range and snag a top-six spot. But as ESPN notes, Phoenix has the second-most difficult schedule the rest of the way, so that path won’t be an easy one.
The Warriors are in a good position to make up ground in the standings if they can get hot — they play both the Mavericks and Lakers twice more in the season’s final weeks, though three of those four matchups are on the road.
It’s also worth noting that Curry is banged up at the moment, though there’s optimism he’ll return soon. The same is true of Doncic in Dallas.
If the Lakers and Warriors end up in the ninth and 10th spots, it would result in arguably the most star-studded win-or-go-home the play-in tournament has seen since its inception. And whichever team wins that game would need to earn a second victory on the road to make the playoffs.
Looking at the Western Conference play-in picture, we want to know what you think. Which teams do you expect to finish in fifth and sixth, avoiding the play-in tournament? What would be the best matchups in the Western play-in games? Which two clubs do you expect to be eliminated in the tournament and watching the first round from home?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!
West 2024 > 2008?
The 2008 western conference was notoriously competitive with the 8th seed Nuggets winning 50 games total. The Warriors who were the 9th seed barely missed by 48 wins.
The West in 2024 has 10 teams with at least 2 all star talent players. Just thinking about that is crazy. 10 teams with at least 2 all stars, and then teams like OKC and Jazz have at least 1 all star level player as well.
Grizzlies will be great. How can Rockets make playoffs next year?
Sillivan, thinking of next year it doesn’t look good for the Lakers and the warriors. It’s probable that they slip out of the playoffs entirely because their stars are getting older.
The Warriors are trying to get the youth going but we can see they still rely on Steph Curry way too much. He’ll only be older next year and it’s tough to see how they can add reinforcements that will make enough of a difference. Fingers crossed but slippage looks inevitable.
How exactly does $80+ million in salary coming off the books next year result in “tough to see how they can add reinforcements”… this is the first off season in a decade where they can actually add.
When you’re way over the cap like the Warriors are $80 million coming off the books still might leave them over the cap meaning they can’t sign outside free agents of significance.
I’d have to look to see where they stand, but basically over the cap teams in the NBA would have to do “sign and trade” to bring in such large salaries. It’s part of the collecting bargaining agreement between the Union and the league.
That also means giving up young players and draft picks. A team like the Warriors is in rebuild mode and they need to draft picks.
Warriors do not need to bring in big name all stars but at least this season they can spend more than $5 million like last year on minimum wage free agents.
It would be nice to bring in a actual center for the second team.
How can the Rockets make the playoffs next year? They have a young up and coming teams, control the Nets 1st round draft picks in 3 of the next four years. and they have Coach Ime Udoka.
Grizzlies have potential but with Ja Morant, you never know what can happen and Bane’s $200M monster contract kicks in next year. They are way over the cap before the season begins and they don’t have the money to become a luxury tax team. They’ll have to let Luke Kennard walk. They are at over $160M without Kennard, and they have to pay their draft picks plus Jaren Jackson Jr. will be up for a major contract extension soon and that adds $40M per year. Once that happens their top 3 players will put them near the salary cap and won’t be able to have much of a bench. Welcome to the NBA and the new salary cap violation penalties.
OKC has to all star talents in Shai and Chet. GSW only have one all star talent now, the rest are “former”
OKC is about to have the same problem as the Warriors in 2 years. Giddey is getting a max extension next year. Chet will too in another year after that. They will be losing players to stay around the cap. So OKC will go through what warriors is going through no money to sign any free agents or bench players.
This situation points out the silliness of Silver’s play-in. In the position of any of these 6 teams (including LAL and GSW), or any of their fans, I’d rather just see the season play out and determine the 8 playoff teams and seeding.
Now, with the post-season teams are more or less locked in a month out (with no real race, except for seeding), I don’t see how this will increase competitiveness in the next month. The opposite.
You make great points and admittedly your preferences are most popular. But I have to say, I like the play in tournament. And I like it a lot.
How can you beat an instantaneous game 7 and win or go home among these teams fighting to get in? To me it’s the top of the line basketball excitement at its finest.
Yes perhaps the seedings are set except for a couple of last minute adjustments, but wow, sudden death just can’t be topped in my opinion. Yes the seven or eight seeds have two cracks at it, but still it’s essentially win or go home. For me it’s can’t miss basketball.
Agreed. Steph vs LeBron in a win-or-go-home game? That’s epic. Whichever team loses that game will probably break up in the offseason.
Both the Dubs and Lakers are irrelevant and both are not contenders nor will they be any time soon. Dubs are old. Lakers are old. LeBron is 100 years old.
Let’s not bother to play the Regular Season anymore …. It’s just “exhibition games” ….. In fact …. Let’s just set up a win or go home game Lakers vs. Golden State. Winner gets in the Playoffs. The NBA just manipulated the amount of points being scored in games. I mean scoring was insane before All-Star break. Now, scoring at 20 to 30 points LESS per game. One call to the refs to change the way they call the game. Instantly, much fewer points scored. One step above wrestling.
In many ways I agree with you very Barry
Scoring fewer points means nothing. All that matters is that you outscore your opponent. Sixers only scored 79 points against the Knicks last week, but won the game.
7-10 seeds play in – separately as two catagories:
Warriors and Mavs are dark horse title contenders.
Lakers and Super team Suns are white donkey title contenders.
5. Suns
6. Pels
7. Kings
8. Mavs
9. Lakers
10. GS
It would still be very interesting in the West if the format was 1-8 only. Those teams are still fighting for seedings. Don’t really care much for play in the 1-10 has been locked in since AS since Utah and Hou just don’t have it to push for 10th and actually threaten to get in.
LA will finish 10th in the WC and will lose in the play-in to the Dubs. Mavs will beat the Suns and the Suns will beat the Dubs for the 8th seed.