As we explained on Monday following the conclusion of the NBA’s 2023/24 regular season, the results of the play-in tournament helped move the lottery standings and the 2024 draft order one step closer to being officially set.
Here’s what we know now…
Lottery teams
The results of the play-in tournament didn’t actually change the lottery standings we originally projected on Sunday. The teams that entered the play-in as the seventh and eighth seeds are the ones that made it through.
The Sixers and Heat claimed the East’s final two playoff spots and will face New York and Boston, respectively, in round one of the postseason. The Lakers and Pelicans locked up the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in the West, lining up first-round dates with Denver and Oklahoma City, respectively.
As a result, the tentative lottery standings are as follows:
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| WSH | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CHA | 13.3 | 12.9 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 15.3 | 27.1 | 7.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POR | 13.2 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 24.6 | 16.4 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SAS | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| TOR* | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| MEM | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | – | – | 19.7 | 34.1 | 12.9 | 1.3 | >0 | – | – | – |
| UTH* | 6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | – | – | – | 34.5 | 32.1 | 6.7 | 0.4 | >0 | – | – |
| BKN* | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | 50.7 | 25.9 | 3 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| ATL | 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 65.9 | 19 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| CHI | 2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 12.6 | 0.4 | >0 |
| HOU* | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 86.1 | 6.7 | 0.1 |
| SAC | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | 1.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 3.3 |
| GSW* | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 96.6 |
* Asterisks denote traded picks:
- The Raptors‘ pick will be sent to the Spurs if it’s outside the top six.
- The Jazz‘s pick will be sent to the Thunder if it’s outside the top 10.
- The Nets‘ pick will be sent to the Rockets.
- The Rockets‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder if it’s outside the top four.
- The Warriors‘ pick will be sent to the Trail Blazers if it’s outside the top four.
Multiple tiebreakers will still be required before the pre-lottery draft order is locked in, since two pairs of lottery teams finished the regular season with identical records.
The teams listed above in italics and marked with asterisks were tied, so the following spots in the chart could still be flipped, pending the results of random tiebreakers:
- Charlotte Hornets / Portland Trail Blazers (21-61)
- Sacramento Kings / Golden State Warriors (46-36)
For instance, if the Trail Blazers win their tiebreaker with the Hornets, they’ll be the team that can’t fall further than No. 7 in the lottery, while Charlotte could slide as far as No. 8.
Lottery teams that ended up with identical regular season records essentially have the same odds at a top-four pick as each other, though the club that wins the tiebreaker will get one extra ping-pong ball combination at No. 3 and No. 13.
Traded first-round picks
The play-in results also provided some clarity on certain first-round picks that were traded with protections.
Crucially, the fact that the Kings missed out on the playoffs means they’ll hang onto their 2024 first-round pick, since it was top-14 protected and will land in that range. Instead of receiving Sacramento’s ’24 first-rounder, the Hawks will be owed the Kings’ 2025 pick, with top-12 protection.
The fact that the Warriors ended up in the lottery means there still a chance they could hang onto their first-round pick, which is top-four protected. Those odds are slim though — the Warriors will have a 3.8% chance of moving up into the top four if they win their tiebreaker with Sacramento, or a 3.4% chance if the Kings win that tiebreaker.
That means the Trail Blazers will have either a 96.2% or 96.6% chance to receive Golden State’s pick. Portland is actually probably rooting for the Warriors to win that tiebreaker with the Kings, even though it would ever so slightly reduce the Blazers’ odds of getting the pick — in that scenario, the Blazers would almost certainly receive No. 13 instead of No. 14.
Two more traded picks are worth mentioning, given the results of the play-in tournament. First, the Lakers‘ first-rounder will now end up somewhere in the No. 16-19 range, depending on tiebreakers. The Pelicans have the option of acquiring that pick or deferring it to 2025 — the odds of a deferral are higher now that it’s not a lottery selection.
The Pelicans’ ability to swap picks with the Bucks also remains alive as a result of New Orleans’ playoff berth. The two teams finished with identical records and also tied with Phoenix, so a three-way tiebreaker will determine the picks from No. 21 to 23. If Milwaukee ends up with a higher pick than New Orleans as a result of those tiebreakers, the Pelicans will exercise their swap rights.
Playoff teams
Based on the play-in results, the draft order in the middle of the first round will be as follows:
- Miami Heat (46-36)
- Indiana Pacers / Los Angeles Lakers / Orlando Magic / Philadelphia 76ers (47-35)
- Note: The Pacers’ pick will be sent to the Raptors.
- Note: The Lakers’ pick may be sent to the Pelicans (New Orleans has the option to defer it to 2025).
- Note: The Pacers’ pick will be sent to the Raptors.
- Cleveland Cavaliers (48-34)
- Milwaukee Bucks / New Orleans Pelicans / Phoenix Suns (49-33)
- Note: The Pelicans have the ability to swap first-round picks with the Bucks.
In addition to the tiebreaker required for the 16-19 and 21-23 picks, the following tiebreakers will be necessary for playoff teams:
- Dallas Mavericks / New York Knicks (50-32)
- Note: The Mavericks’ pick will be sent to the Knicks.
- Denver Nuggets / Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
- Note: The Thunder’s pick will be sent to the Jazz.
It’s worth noting that even though Miami, Sacramento, and Golden State all finished the season with identical 46-36 records, the Heat aren’t involved in the Kings/Warriors tiebreaker because they made the playoffs and the other two teams didn’t.
Because those three teams finished tied in the standings, however, Miami will get the first pick of the three in round two — it will be No. 43, while the Kings and Warriors will pick at No. 44 and 45, in some order.
The random tiebreakers for draft positioning are typically conducted on the Monday eight days after the regular season, which would be April 22. Once those are completed, we’ll publish a full pre-lottery order for both rounds of the 2024 draft.
The Knicks are not my team, but they actually got screwed last year by Dallas when the Mavs sat top players instead of fighting for a play-in spot. That kept Dallas’s pick no lower than the protected #10 last year. I thought the NBA was going to crack down on any form of tanking. Now the pick that the Knicks get will be in the 20s.
it’s the NBA – Never Believe Anything.
With all the repetitive platitudes about “it’s a business” and “what’s best for the organization” and the old “feed my family” I think tanking for the betterment of the organizational future should be expected and honestly encouraged. The framework of the trade is the problem here and the standings happened to line up perfectly with real world impacts of a trade caveat.
Viewing this as something malicious rather than unfortunate is a bad take. Allowing trade protections provides more avenues for trades and I think that’s ultimately good for both players and franchises. This is just an unfortunate side effect.
Mavs played it right for themselves and their fans. And let’s be very honest…
Thibs is never playing a rookie anyways. He has no patience for young mistakes on defense.
It’s the way the business goes. Would you think the raptors got screwed this year if their pick gets bumped down two spots by two teams moving up and goes to San Antonio?
The Mavs were hit with a fine. That’s about all the league can do in situations like the one that occurred. It is what it is.
Good stuff. Love draft pick intricacies