The two teams that will square off in the Eastern Conference finals this spring have benefited from some injury luck in recent weeks.
After dominating the Eastern Conference during the regular season, the Celtics were rewarded with a first-round matchup against a Heat team missing Jimmy Butler and a second-round series against a Cavaliers squad playing without its starting center (Jarrett Allen) for all five games, as well as its leading scorer (Donovan Mitchell) for the last two.
The Pacers have also defeated a pair of foes missing key players during this postseason. Indiana’s first-round victory came against a Milwaukee team that was playing without two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, and its second-round win came against the Knicks, who didn’t have Julius Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic, OG Anunoby, and Mitchell Robinson available for most or all of the series.
Teams can only beat the opponents in front of them, so I’m not here to run down either of the East’s two clubs left standing. But if the two teams avoid injuries going forward, this series will represent a new challenge for the Celtics and Pacers.
Of course, the challenge is a more daunting one for the Pacers, who weren’t supposed to be here. Indiana’s over/under for 2023/24 last fall was 38.5 wins. And while the Pacers got off to a strong start, added Pascal Siakam via trade, and comfortably surpassed that win total, they weren’t exactly dominant during the regular season. If not for a victory in their 82nd game, they would’ve been a play-in team. They ranked a modest 10th in the NBA in net rating (+2.9) and just 24th in defensive rating (117.6). They’ll enter this series as major underdogs (+600, per BetOnline.ag).
The Celtics, meanwhile, posted the third-best regular season net rating in NBA history (+11.7), finishing with the league’s No. 1 offensive rating (122.2) and No. 2 defensive rating (110.6). They wobbled slightly in both playoff series, losing Game 2 at home to both the Heat and Cavaliers, and perhaps weren’t quite as dominant against opponents ravaged by injuries as Boston fans would’ve liked to see. But it’s not like they were in any real danger in either round — the Celtics’ +12.8 postseason net rating is even better than their regular season mark.
Still, there are reasons to believe this series could be a competitive one. For one, Boston is still missing Kristaps Porzingis, who was out for the second round due to a calf strain. The latest updates on Porzingis suggest he could return at some point in the Eastern Conference finals, but likely not for either of the first two games at home. As long as he remains on the shelf, the Celtics will miss Porzingis’ rim protection against a Pacers offense that was the NBA’s second-best during the regular season and has been the league’s top unit during the playoffs.
As Jay King and Jared Weiss detail for The Athletic, the Pacers’ bench has been a real strength in the team’s first two postseason series. T.J. McConnell has been impressive leading a second unit that also features sharpshooter Ben Sheppard (.474 3PT% in 13 playoff games) and Obi Toppin (11.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG in just 19.0 MPG). The Celtics have good depth too, but their second unit isn’t quite as strong with Al Horford moved into the starting lineup in place of Porzingis.
King and Weiss also point out that the Pacers would benefit from being able to control the pace in the series. Only the Wizards played at a faster pace than Indiana during the regular season, while Boston ranked in the bottom half of the league in that category — and ranks dead last during the playoffs.
We want to know what you think. Do you see the Pacers pulling off another upset, or is this where their Cinderella run ends? Will Porzingis’ availability – or lack thereof – be a deciding factor, or can the Celtics win this series without him? Do you expect the winner of this series to be the NBA’s 2024 champion?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions on the Eastern Conference finals!
The league must be soiling itself over the potential of a Minnesota-Indiana finals.
League doesn’t care as much as the networks do. League gets the same $$ no matter who is in the Finals and they have several networks competing for the next contract already.
The league is thrilled about this… Im not sure where you’re getting that they aren’t happy with smaller market teams having success.
Expansion is around the corner. Prices for a new team go up every day, especially when you can provide a league of parity. Ant taking over as “face of the league” (stupid term btw) would blow the zipper off right off Silver’s pants.
the funny thing is, pacers & wolves have 2 of the best young superstars in nba. if haliburton & edwards played for lakers or knicks or heat, it would be hailed as a monster match up. but instead they play in the bumblef*ck midwest so nobody pays attention
Pacers will make it interesting, Celtics need Porzingis back in regular season form, or it will be close. If Pacers split the opening 2 games in Boston, watch out… Pacers can run and uses its bench… With Porzingis out, Horford is starting and thins the bench…. Payton Prichard, Hauser, kornet, may have to take Tillman out of moths balls and actually play him……
I don’t think it will be close even without Porzingis, check out the C’s record without him.
43-14 if anyone is wondering.
I think that is their record with him, they are 21-4 without him in the regular season.
Porzingis was a huge get, but Holiday as opposed to Smart might be even bigger.
Smart was never ready for the big moment.
Every summer, Stevens did great moves. Replacing Smart was one of them. If Tatum cannot prove that he can carry on this team this summer with an almost perfect supporting cast, I expect Stevens do something about Tatum- Brown duo.
@justkidding: yep, whoops! Did it backwards.
Wait? So you are picking the Pacers to beat the Celtics.
Can i get a piece of that action? Please!?!!!!
Listen, I understand everyone hates Boston, I am a Celtic fan, but dont get yourself all worked up about an easy series for Boston. Its the same with the Patriots. Every year people said weird things because they hate the Patriots so much. Reality will set in eventually and the Pacers play no defense.
Boston would have beaten a healthy Knicks team in 5 or 6. They just dont have the horses. Neither does the Pacers.
Boston in 4 or 5
Amazing. I didn’t know the Celtics fan base carried their confidence from the Brady era into basketball. Just when you thought they couldn’t be any less likable… Bravo.
I’d be mad too living in Washington
It wont be close. Pacers play almost no defense. Boston averaged 129 against the Pacers. You cannot allow 129pts per game and win any series against anyone.
Bench is not thin. GEEZ, seriously. I am one who hates Mazzulla, but the disrespect Boston has gotten since they clinched home court and rolled through the Heat and Cavs is staggering.
Boston can sweep. Most likely this series is over in 5.
Boston split with Minny both winning OT games at home. So Boston has homecourt. Who is Golbert gonna guard again? Or are you putting KAT on Tatum?
Dallas is going as far as Luka’s injury status. But I would expect that Minny wins in 5 or 6 if Luka can get hot one or two games. Kyrie is winning you nothing.
The Pacers strike fear in no one. “Also-rans” poster child. Really shouldn’t be here and we know from its history that is 100% fact… unless you go back 30 years.
Celtics in five. You know they will blow at least one game and everyone will act like this is a competitive series before Boston blows them away.
The Mavs have a much better shot to beat the Wolves than the Pacers do to beat the Celtics, and the Mavs don’t have that great of a chance to begin with.
Myles Turner must show up in this series and win his matchup. I don’t see Indiana playing enough defense for a full 48 to pull of a series win. Boston can throw 3-4 defenders at Hali and disrupt the flow and pace of the game for Indy. Coaching? It’s Indy’s favor but I just don’t see Boston losing in the east finals with this talent two years in a row.
I think Boston wins in 5. 6 if they’re not focused enough.
Hey, I’m a Celtics fan, I’m being real…. This is the playoffs, regular season record doesn’t matter. A healthly Porzingis would have been big…. Both Brown & Tatum have to show up, expecting they will, but what will they get from the rest, White?, got to involve Holiday in offense, not just D…. Heat beat the Celtics last year, remember…. that caused the reset with Porzingis, Holiday… I want the Celtics to win, they should, but it’s going to be close games… not blowouts….
I agree for the most part. Play off is different. Celtics still have the upper hand but I don’t think they have a true dog to close out games easily especially if the series extends to game 6 or 7. And Pacers have better bench for sure. Also, Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the league. Tatum must show he can carry this team to the finals. He is a very good player but I have not seen so far that he is a true superstar
Celtics played Pacers with Haliburton in the lineup 4 times and split 2-2. If Indiana plays the kind of perfect game they played in game 7 at MSG, where the shots are smart and clean, the defense was good, no bad passes, and kept the energy up for 48 minutes, they have a shot. Dont foul, and dont turn the ball over. Attack the boards! I think this goes 7 games. Indiana could W. Crazier things have happened.
Just as Johnny Utah did, the Pacers are going to remove Boston’s cuffs and the Celtics will be free to do whatever they please.
Before someone beats me to it, sure it didn’t work out for Bromaster Bodhi, but hopefully the Celtics don’t get into the deep water of no return and demise. With the cuffs off, assuredly Boston ditches the rough seas of inconsistency and fires away on all cylinders towards a series win.
Young team grows up ….. always good to see. Can’t really root for Celtics or Pacers. I’d just like to see a seven gm series. If KP misses too much time. Pacers can win it. If he’s not 100%. Pacers can win it. We’ll see I guess.
The Pacers know what JHoliday is all about and he could be a factor in limiting Halliburton 3’s.
As for injuries, that Pacers are, and have been, down one of their best Defenders and a creator on the offensive end (Mathurin).
The season series was 3-2 C’s. Maybe the P’s can steal one of the first two games…