The Timberwolves and Mavericks were considered two of the Western Conference’s most disappointing teams at this time last spring. The Wolves, who had mortgaged their future in order to acquire Rudy Gobert during the 2022 offseason, barely finished above .500 (42-40) and were quickly dispatched in the first round of the 2023 playoffs. Dallas didn’t even make the play-in tournament after going into a tailspin following the midseason acquisition of Kyrie Irving and posting an unimpressive 38-44 record
What a difference a year makes.
All the pieces came together in Minnesota during the Wolves’ second year with Gobert, as the team got off to a 17-4 start and held a top-three seed in the West for nearly the entire season, led by rising superstar Anthony Edwards, All-Star big man Karl-Anthony Towns, and the NBA’s No. 1 defense.
In Dallas, Luka Doncic and Irving thrived after getting an offseason and training camp together, and the Mavericks really hit their stride during the final two months of the season after acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford in a pair of trade deadline deals.
The two teams, who each had a projected over/under of 44.5 wins entering the fall, comfortably exceeded expectations in the regular season and have dispatched a pair of tough opponents in the playoffs. The Wolves made quick work of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and the Suns in round one before knocking off the defending-champion Nuggets in round two. The Mavs, meanwhile, beat the Clippers in the No. 4 vs. No. 5 series and then got past the No. 1 Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals.
It sets up a fascinating Western Conference finals between two teams whose histories of deep postseason runs are pretty limited. The Mavericks have made the NBA Finals just twice since their inception in 1980, winning one title in 2011. The Timberwolves’ playoff history is even less inspiring — this is just the second time in their 35-year existence they’ve made the Western finals, and they’ve never advanced further than that.
This year’s Timberwolves might be the best team in franchise history though, with Mike Conley organizing an offense led by a pair of talented scorers in Edwards and Towns, while four-time Defensive Player of the Year Gobert anchors a defense that features perimeter stoppers such as Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Throw in Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid and jack-of-all-trades veteran wing Kyle Anderson and the Wolves have one of the NBA’s deepest, most versatile postseason rotations.
Minnesota had the NBA’s third-best net rating (+6.3) during the regular season and has improved that mark to +8.5 (No. 2 in the league) during the playoffs, ranking first in the West in both offensive rating (116.1) and defensive rating (107.6) in the postseason. As the higher seed in the Western finals, the Wolves will also have home court advantage in the series.
Given all those factors, it’s no surprise that Minnesota is viewed as the solid favorite entering the Western finals. BetOnline.ag has the Wolves listed at -182 to advance to the NBA Finals, with Dallas at +162.
The Mavericks are a tough opponent to beat when they’re firing on all cylinders though. In Doncic and Irving, they have two elite shot-makers who can wear down even the best of defenses and who don’t mind having the ball in their hands with the game on the line. Dallas’ two star guards are complemented by versatile forwards Washington and Derrick Jones, who have both been reliable threats from beyond the three-point line during the playoffs, as well as Gafford and Dereck Lively, a pair of rim-running centers who are capable of protecting the paint on defense.
Not having Maxi Kleber (shoulder) will hurt, but the Mavs have decent frontcourt depth without him, and there’s a chance he could be back later in the series. If role players like Josh Green and Tim Hardaway Jr. are playing well, it could help make up for Kleber’s absence.
Josh Robbins, Sam Amick, and Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic spoke to a scout, a coach, and an executive about the Western Conference showdown and all three picked the Timberwolves. But they all expect the series to last six games, and that was a common theme in ESPN’s expert predictions as well — nine of ESPN’s 15 respondents chose the Wolves, but not one of the 15 expects the series to be over in fewer than six games.
We want to know what you think. After knocking off the champs, is Minnesota headed to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history? Or will the Mavs pull off the upset? Will the winner of this series win the 2024 championship?
Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and predictions for the series!
Dallas win 4:2
MN in 5
Poop. Good thing I don’t back my baseless internet prognostications with hard cash. Still pulling for MN but they aren’t winning the next 4 straight up.
All I’ll say is at least Dallas fans have the stars to turn to in a week.
Minnesota sweeps dallas.
Dallas weakness has been their bigs (sort of) and Minn dominates in that category.
Question is whether Kyrie and Luka is a more dynamic offensive weapon than Murray/Jokic.
On paper I feel MN has the advantage but not 100% confident. But ok Minnesota in 7
I’m a mavs fan and realist. I think MN wins in 5 games. I hope dallas gets at least 2 wins to keep luka somewhat content but I really don’t see mavs winning two.
Wolves in 6
Almost all the experts and most of the lurkers in the comments section told us how bad the Gobert trade was and made sure to remind us all what a horrible trade it was every time the Wolves or their players came up. Most everyone saying that Gobert is vastly overrated, that he’s unplayable during crunch time in the playoffs and that you can’t win with two bigs. (turns out you can with three bigs playing key minutes.)
Now that they’ve dispatched the defending champs those same people are picking them to beat the Mavs.The Wolves will most likely take care of the Mavs but now that everyone is on the bandwagon I almost want it to topple over.
No though, I’m sticking to my pick. Luka may have survived the Dorture chamber but Seatbelt won’t stop him but he’ll lock him up and contain him. Wolves in six.
Acting like you’re the one guy who was championing the Gobert trade 10 months ago is hilarious. By every metric that trade seemed ridiculous at the end of last season. Glad the Wolves turned it around but cmon dude
I think there was a lot more than 1 person who actually liked the gobert trade when it went down – it’s just a classic example of how casuals in the media can demonstratively say something and many people jump on the bandwagon. Conversely, Utah’s other star trade at the time was lauded as a no-risk brilliant move by the Cavs when it pretty clearly wasn’t. The draft comp given up was similar (the twolves even had protection on their year 7 pick), while the Cavs also gave up higher ceiling player comp (Markkanen and Sexton) with the twolves negotiating to put in their extra draft comp to keep their one high ceiling trade chip (McDaniels) out of the deal. To make matters worse, anyone who actually paid attention to utah knew that gobert was constantly put in horrible position with some of their ridiculous defensive schemes – overall he’s a more impactful on winning player than Mitchell since Mitchell plays no defense (Gobert is better defensively than Mitchell is offensively and better offensively than Mitchell is defensively). To make matters even more obviously lopsided that the twolves and not the cavs were making the better trade, the twolves had one of the best young stars in the game and the cavs had nothing close to that so when evaluating the future value of the draft picks, the cavs’ picks would naturally have been much more valuable – especially factoring in Mitchell’s penchant for not getting along with teammates that is predictably causing issues again in Cleveland… Hindsight was not needed for any of this logic and I’m confident there were team personnel throughout the league that didn’t succumb to the media driven narratives around those two trades at the time.
Mavs in 7.
I have been a diehard Wolves fan from the jump. I’ve been there for the the good (a couple decades ago), the bad, the ugly and the downright frightening! The past few years (the Ant years!) have given me hope I haven’t had since KG was young and in his prime. Last season when we traded for Gobert I was excited! I thought that might be our year – then the season started and my hopes were quickly dashed. I never got fully down on the trade but it started to look less appealing to me. Injury to KAT then falling apart in the playoffs – just another letdown. On the positive Ant looked great though!
Fast forward to this season – I’ve never been this pumped or excited for my Wolves! Our already elite D has been turned up a notch in the post-season. Somehow we’ve found our offensive rhythm too. The Mavs are great and can’t be overlooked but I think we can lock them down. It’s our time! Wolves in 5 or 6!
DAL should win… but it’s all about Luka!
If he is healthy DAL will win, if not then they will lose, it’s all about him.
MIN can’t stop him if healthy, so is nothing to do with them.
Can and Will. Start loading up the excuses!
Boston in 6…