After winning the first championship in franchise history a year ago, the Nuggets kept their starting five intact but lost a pair of reserves who played key roles during that title run. While Bruce Brown and Jeff Green were the first two players off the bench for Denver in last year’s postseason, the Nuggets weren’t in position to compete with Indiana’s offer for Brown – which included a $22MM starting salary – or the Rockets’ bid for Green (an $8MM starting salary, plus incentives).
The Nuggets’ plan to address those holes in their rotation centered on youth. In addition to drafting three experienced prospects who had a combined 13 college seasons under their belts (Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett, and Hunter Tyson), Denver figured second-year players Christian Braun and Peyton Watson would be ready to take on larger roles, as would fourth-year big man Zeke Nnaji.
The Nuggets’ plan wasn’t entirely misguided — Braun, in particular, had a strong sophomore season, earning head coach Michael Malone‘s trust and a spot in Denver’s playoff rotation. But Watson was up and down, Nnaji’s playing time dropped to just 9.9 minutes per game, and the three rookies weren’t as NBA-ready as the front office had hoped.
By the time the Nuggets were eliminated from the playoffs, there were only really six players (the starters, plus Braun) that Malone felt like he could count on, with even veteran reserves like Justin Holiday and Reggie Jackson seeing very limited minutes in the postseason.
The Nuggets don’t need to overhaul their roster. The starting five of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope remained extremely effective in 2023/24, registering the second-best net rating of any lineup that played at least 250 minutes together (+13.6). But Malone simply had to rely on that five-man group too heavily — it logged 958 total minutes together across 48 games, while the league’s second most-used lineup (the Thunder’s starters) played 799 minutes in 63 outings.
The challenge for Denver’s front office this offseason is twofold. First, can the Nuggets keep that starting five intact for another year? Caldwell-Pope holds a $15.4MM player option that he’s expected to decline, and there will certainly be rival suitors looking to steal the three-and-D stalwart away from the 2023 champions.
Second, whether Caldwell-Pope re-signs or whether Denver has to elevate Braun to its starting five, can the Nuggets do a better job of constructing a reliable second unit? The salary cap situation won’t make it easy — with Caldwell-Pope back, team salary could rise above the restrictive second tax apron, and even without him on the books, the club projects to be a taxpayer.
General manager Calvin Booth earned kudos a year ago for the moves he made to help turn the Nuggets into a championship team, but most of the core was built when Tim Connelly was running the front office. This offseason will represent Booth’s biggest challenge yet, as he looks to put together a roster capable of returning to the NBA Finals.
The Nuggets’ Offseason Plan
The Nuggets hold Caldwell-Pope’s full Bird rights, so assuming he turns down his ’24/25 player option, as expected, there’s nothing stopping them from offering as much as it takes to re-sign him. It simply comes down to what sort of commitment management and ownership are comfortable with.
Caldwell-Pope isn’t a particularly dynamic offensive player, but he has made 41.5% of his three-point attempts since arriving in Denver and is one of the keys to the defense — he and Gordon take on the most challenging assignments on that end of the floor. That makes him an extremely valuable role player, and at age 31, a team can feel relatively confident about investing in him for the next three or four seasons and not having his performance fall off significantly in the later years of that contract.
An annual salary of $20MM+ certainly seems within reach for Caldwell-Pope, so unless he’s willing to accept any sort of discount to remain in Denver, the team may have to offer something in the neighborhood of Gordon’s current deal ($87MM over four years) to retain him. That would likely mean operating over the second apron unless the Nuggets can shed salary elsewhere on the roster.
If Denver does look to cut costs, Nnaji would be an obvious candidate to be moved. He’s entering the first season of a front-loaded four-year, $32MM contract that he signed last fall. At the time, it seemed like a reasonable investment, with Nnaji seemingly poised to take on a larger role in Green’s absence, perhaps even serving as Jokic’s primary backup at center. But 2023/24 was the 23-year-old’s worst NBA season, as he averaged just 3.2 PPG and 2.2 RPG on .463/.261/.677 shooting. Needless to say, if he were eligible for restricted free agency this summer, a four-year, $32MM deal would be a long shot.
Nnaji’s salary isn’t massive, and he’s still young enough to be a bounce-back candidate, but his value has slipped so precipitously in the last year that it would take draft assets to move off his four-year contract. The Nuggets may prefer to preserve those assets for a move that actually upgrades the roster instead of just saving some money.
If we assume Caldwell-Pope re-signs and Nnaji returns, the Nuggets’ roster-building options aren’t extensive. Jokic, Murray, and Gordon aren’t going anywhere, and the team’s top decision-makers signaled at the end of the season that Porter wouldn’t be moved either. No one else is earning more than $5.25MM – or $3.1MM, if Jackson declines his $5.25MM player option – and if Denver is operating over the second apron, the team won’t be able to aggregate salaries in a trade.
A lack of trade activity would leave two paths for filling out the bench: hoping for improvement from young players and scouring the free agent market for minimum-salary bargains. As we discussed above, that was the strategy that didn’t work particularly well last year, though there’s reason to hope it could be more successful this time around. Players often make major strides between their first and second or second and third seasons, so guys like Watson, Strawther, and Pickett could follow Braun’s path and become more consistent performers in 2024/25.
It’d be risky to count on that though, so the Nuggets ought to be a little more aggressive seeking out a rotation player or two who would be willing to sign for the minimum. Denver can offer a good situation for veterans looking to contend for a championship and potentially play regular minutes. Torrey Craig, Kyle Lowry, Lonnie Walker, Delon Wright, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Mason Plumlee, and Daniel Theis are some potential low-cost targets I like.
The Nuggets will also have to make a decision on Vlatko Cancar, who missed the entire 2023/24 season due to an ACL tear and has a $2.35MM team option for ’24/25. Cancar steadily took on a larger role over his first four years in Denver (2019-23) and his injury was a factor in why the team’s bench didn’t live up to expectations last season. Having Cancar available wouldn’t have entirely turned things around, but he showed some real promise in the championship season, averaging 5.0 PPG and 2.1 RPG with a 37.4% three-point percentage in 60 games (14.8 MPG). If the club feels good about where his health is at following his ACL recovery, he should be back.
Finally, Denver holds the 28th and 56th overall picks in this year’s draft. The front office is unlikely to find an immediate contributor at No. 56, but the other selection could prove useful. There have been rumblings that the Nuggets have made Dayton’s DaRon Holmes II a draft promise — if he’s the target and the team believes he’ll be available early in the second round, exploring a trade back would make sense, since the luxury tax impact of an early second-rounder could be quite a bit less than that of a late first-rounder.
Of the Nuggets’ extension candidates, Murray and Gordon are the ones worth keeping the closest eye on, as both players could become free agents in 2025. Murray has just one year left on his current contract, while Gordon has a player option for 2025/26.
Murray could make himself eligible for a super-max contract (starting at up to 35% of the 2025/26 cap instead of 30%) if he makes an All-NBA team next season. That idea may be tempting, given that Booth suggested last October the Nuggets would open to offering Murray a super-max deal. But it’s a risky move for a player who has battled injuries in recent years, including an ACL tear that cost him the entire 2021/22 season. Murray could still sign for up to $208MM over four years on a standard maximum-salary deal this summer, which would be a pretty nice payday if Denver is willing to offer it.
As for Gordon, he’ll become eligible in September for an extension that could be worth up to about $143MM over four years. That’d be a huge commitment for a player who is a fourth option on offense, but the former lottery pick has been such a perfect fit alongside Jokic in Denver on both sides of the ball that he might be worth it, especially with the salary cap expected to rise by 10% annually over the life of the deal.
Salary Cap Situation
Guaranteed Salary
Nikola Jokic ($51,415,938)- Jamal Murray ($36,016,200)
- Michael Porter Jr. ($35,859,950)
- Aaron Gordon ($22,841,455)
- Zeke Nnaji ($8,888,889)
- Christian Braun ($3,089,640)
- Julian Strawther ($2,552,520)
- Peyton Watson ($2,413,560)
- Jalen Pickett ($1,891,857)
- Hunter Tyson ($1,891,857)
- Total: $166,861,866
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- None
Dead/Retained Salary
- None
Player Options
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($15,440,185): Bird rights
- Reggie Jackson ($5,250,000): Early Bird rights
- Total: $20,690,185
Team Options
- Vlatko Cancar ($2,346,606): Bird rights
- Total: $2,346,606
Restricted Free Agents
- None
Two-Way Free Agents
Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Nuggets, Gillespie’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,093,637). It would include a small partial guarantee.
Draft Picks
- No. 28 overall pick ($2,538,240 cap hold)
- No. 56 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total (cap holds): $2,538,240
Extension-Eligible Players
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (veteran)
- Player option must be exercised.
- Vlatko Cancar (veteran)
- Team option must be exercised.
- Aaron Gordon (veteran)
- Extension-eligible as of September 27.
- Jamal Murray (veteran)
- Michael Porter Jr. (veteran)
- Extension-eligible as of September 29.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.
Unrestricted Free Agents
- Justin Holiday ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- DeAndre Jordan ($2,093,637 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $4,187,274
Other Cap Holds
- DeMarcus Cousins ($2,093,637 cap hold)
- Troy Daniels ($2,093,637 cap hold)
- Richard Jefferson ($2,093,637 cap hold)
- Markus Howard ($1,867,722 cap hold)
- Total (cap holds): $8,148,633
Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Nuggets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
Cap Exceptions Available
Note: The Nuggets project to operate over the cap and over the first apron. If they move above the second apron, they would lose access to the taxpayer mid-level exception.
- Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,183,000
Its time to trade Porter especially if the only way to keep KCP is by trading Porter. I’m not sure how much value Porter has with how awful his contract is. Would Detroit do Porter for Ivey? Nuggets need another ball handler/creator. That would clear cap space to sign KCP and would also open up part of the taxpayer mid level exception to add another piece.
IMO if Porter stays and KCP walks Denver isn’t getting out of the 2nd round this year and could potentially lose in the 1st round. OKC Minnesota Memphis and Dallas could easily be the top 4 seeds in the west next year. Time for Denver’s front office to get creative.
Gotta think breaking up MPJs salary into smaller parts is the plan here.
Maybe a team like the Hornets – Bertans, Williams, Martin for MPJ.
Wizards – dump Poole and maybe add in Kispert.
Agree 100%, got crucified for saying, though. Too much money for a shooter. MPJ all round game isn’t good at all. Also if your Denver, spend money while a true contender. Zeke and Reggie Jackson can go elsewhere.
Agree. Gotta trade Porter
Problem is more getting anything of value for him, other than potential cap space via buyouts. He’s too injury-prone and doesn’t do enough on the floor. He can score at an above-average level, he can use his height to grab some rebounds, and that’s it. No defense, negative playmaker, nil versatility. He’s tremendously overpaid for his skillset. His health last season is a mirage.
Nuggets owner can only blame himself. the new CBA makes it almost impossible to keep a championship team together. Every team in the NBA will be facing it. So when you hand out extensions its going to hurt you in the long run.