Based on what we’ve seen to this point in the 2023/24 NBA season, we have little reason to view the Celtics as anything but strong favorites entering the NBA Finals. Betting website BetOnline.ag agrees, listing them at -220 to win the series.
Boston finished the regular season with a 64-18 record, seven games ahead of any other team in the NBA, 14 games ahead of any other Eastern Conference team, and 14 games ahead of the Mavericks.
Only 21 teams in NBA history have won more games in a single regular season than the Celtics did this year, and 15 of those clubs won championships.
Only two teams in league history have had a higher regular season net rating (+11.7) than the Celtics did in 2023/24, and both of those teams (the 1996 and 1997 Bulls) won titles.
None of this year’s playoff teams has a better postseason record (12-2) or net rating (+10.8) than the Celtics. By comparison, the Mavericks are at 12-5 and +4.1.
So what’s the case against the Celtics? Well, there are a few factors to consider with Game 1 set to tip off on Thursday.
For one, will the Celtics have a healthy Kristaps Porzingis? The big man intends to suit up on Thursday, barring a setback, but he admitted to reporters on Tuesday that he’s not sure whether he’s 100% after being sidelined for approximately five weeks due to a calf strain that forced him to miss two full rounds of the playoffs.
If Porzingis is unavailable or unable to perform at his usual level, it would reduce the Celtics’ offensive options and limit their ability to protect the rim on defense. The Mavericks have thrived this postseason in part by letting centers Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively hang out near the basket to defend the paint, allowing rival big men to let it fly from beyond the arc. That would be a more difficult strategy to deploy vs. Boston if Porzingis (who made 37.5% of 5.1 threes per game this season) is back in form.
The more difficult path the Mavericks traveled to reach the NBA Finals may be another point in their favor. None of the teams the Celtics defeated en route to the Finals had a top-10 record or a top-nine net rating during the regular season, and all three were missing their best players for part or all of the series vs. Boston (Jimmy Butler for Miami, Donovan Mitchell for Cleveland, and Tyrese Haliburton for Indiana).
Dallas, on the other hand, ran through three of the Western Conference’s top four seeds, knocking off a Clippers team that ranked seventh in net rating during the regular season before going on to upset the Thunder (No. 2 in net rating) and Timberwolves (No. 3). The Mavs weren’t supposed to make it this far, which means they’re essentially playing with house money at this point, whereas the Celtics – following a series of playoff letdowns in recent years – are in championship-or-bust mode and may be feeling more pressure.
Finally, while the Celtics had the strongest, most well-rounded starting lineup of any NBA team this season, the Mavericks showed in the Western Conference finals vs. Minnesota that if their stars – Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving – are the best players on the court, they can get enough from their role players to beat a team with a more talented supporting cast. Boston will have plenty of talented defenders to throw at Doncic and Irving, including Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, but if the Mavs’ star guards can outplay Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, they’ll have a chance.
We want to know what you think. Are there enough compelling reasons to believe the Mavericks can pull off the upset and become the NBA’s 2024 champions, or will Boston cap off a dominant season by winning its record-setting 18th title?
Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions!
Boston starting 5 is way better than Mavs starting 5. However, Mavs look more “team “ than Boston. Tatum has not been a true dog when it matters most until this year. Luka can take over any games.
Boston’s main advantage is any player in their starting 5 can shine any given day. They are really very talented individually.
It is going to be a good series…both teams can play
Maybe if the Mavs can learn from the Pacers mistakes…they can steal the series
Boston is the better team and it’s clear. But the better team doesn’t always win.
Boston plays great defense but offensively they really only have one and a half closers. I say one and a half because you can sort of count on Jaylen Brown in the last 2 minutes of a game and the same with Jrue Holiday.., especially on defense.
Derek white is a great player and he’s my pick for most underrated guard in the entire league. Just love him.
And of course Jason Tatum is top 10 in the entire league but the knock is he’ll get you 20 but he can’t get you two. Maybe he’ll change the narrative concerning him but it seems like in the past he has crumbled in game 7 fourth quarter situations.
Dallas on the other hand is much improved from both the deadline trades and how they’ve fit together as a squad. They’re really meshing well with their excellent wings and their two top five in the league closers.
I think that will be the difference. They play the good defense, they have the big men, and there’s several guys who will score for them.
But when it comes down to closing a game the Mavericks have two otherworldly guys, and the Celtics don’t. Hoping for seven games and I think Dallas takes the championship.
I agree for the most part. If games are close in 4th quarters Mavs have higher chances. If KP plays like he did in regular season Boston have higher chances.
Kyrie is 0-10 in his last 10 game against the Celtics
You see a lot of takes on here that make you scratch your head. But Gary I think that was about the best and most intelligent evaluation of teams or a series I have seen on here. Should be a great series and could go either way but I agree with what you said and why 100%.
I’ve always liked you sn33 !! Just kidding, I think there’s a lot of good opinions here including these in reply to mine. We won’t know until the series is over What mattered and what didn’t. Did you have the Mavericks making it this far? I certainly did not. Should be a great series though.
Haha I’m actually a Mavs fan so I’m hoping to cash a nice ticket next week haha in all honesty I thought getting to the WCF was most likely going to be the peak coming into the playoffs. I wasn’t sure how much they would have left in the tank if they beat OKC. But they continue to surprise hope they have one left in them.
You’re not convinced the NBA chooses who wins the games anymore? Does that just come and go?
Sinister Joe.., how about coming in with a basketball take instead of wasting your time focusing on posters?
That would really be a great change of pace for you.
But of course you’ll come back with something snarky and has nothing to do with basketball, the NBA, the celtics, the mavericks, or the finals.
It’ll have something to do with me and what I wrote and how you found something to criticize.
But to each his own. If that brings you Joy then have at it. Who am I to tell you what to write.
By the way after talking this through did we not determine that the NBA probably just prefers in the finals that it goes seven games? Or you forgot that part and only remember the items you choose to hold on to and bash?
It’s fun to root for Dallas, but the reality is that their offense is Guard based and the C’s have two of the Leagues best defenders those positions…
Make money – C’s….
Celtics in 5, maybe a sweep.
Sorry, even Joe Mazzulla cannot screw this up. Kyrie does not like playing against White and Holiday and the Celtics will hunt Luka, Kyrie and probably the Mavs centers on O. Tatum is big enough and much faster to the rim than their bigs.
If Boston shoots well from 3, this series is over in 4. IF not, 5. Luka is an amazing player on O, but suspect on D and this series will be about who plays better defense.
That is the Celtics.
Full disclosure: I am a Celtic Fan and I cannot stand their offense, but the Mavs dont have the bodies to force the Celtics into the type of game they need to win. Cavs and Pacers have many bodies to throw at the Celtics.
To beat the Celtics you must play physical, man to man defense that puts pressure on their primary ball handlers on O, Tatum and Brown. Jones is solid on D, but not physical. Tatum will just go through him as will Brown.
Celtics also have a fantastic record on the road in the playoffs.
I think it is pretty safe to say you haven’t watched much of the Mavs the second half of the year or during the post season. Otherwise you would realize how ridiculous some of the things you said about them are. Not saying they are going to win for sure but it should be a great series. 4 or 5? Give me a break.
Adamokur has a point. Boston has greater talent. But they get into trouble when they go individual ball. If Boston plays as a team and uses the bench correctly and enough, they win in 5 or 6. If Horford is the only bench player who gets more than 15 minutes and if starters don’t include the subs in the offense like they often have not, the Celtics could be in trouble.
I’ll be rooting for the Mav’s but expect Boston in 5
Don’t really care …….
I go with Boston. Cause I dislike Mavs more.
Never liked Kyrie. Not a Luka fan. A oneWay player…..
“A one way player” Have to love people who continue to repeat false narratives they heard on tv. It just makes it pretty obvious those people don’t watch games. Bitter about that draft pick much? Hahaha
Luka has come a long way on defense, hell I’d say he’s slightly above average. It’s always like this though, people still swear Jokic is horrible on defense as well.
Agreed 100%. Not saying Luka is an all defensive player. But the whole “he can’t play defense” is nothing but regurgitated nonsense spewed by clueless clowns who obviously don’t watch games.
The NBA is about stars and how many of them do you have. And by that also available to play. Indiana found out that an up-and-coming guy is not enough. You need Stars and Dallas has two of them. Plus the grunts to help get it done.
Boston has three perhaps four stars if you count Porzingis. He may play one game he may play six and that will be a huge difference either way.
Holiday is a star though not recognized as one and Brown and Tatum are potential Stars who disappear at times. Dallas in 7.
Does Boston need both Tatum and Brown to go big points wise to win games? Dallas definitely needs luka and kyrie to do so.
Jeff Van Gundy says Luka and Kyrie may be the best offensive backcourt of all time but Boston has the perfect counter in White and Holiday who may be the best defensive backcourt of all time.
Lol
Rooting for Celtics but Mavs feel dangerous in a different way. Mavs in 5.
Didnt the Celtics lose Game 1 at home against the Pacers? Celtics simply has not looked good at all in the postseason for some reason. As for the Mavs, they have the best player in nba. Enough said.
No, the Celtics swept the Pacers. They’re so bad they’ve lost two whole games this post-season.
Celtics might have won on the scoreboard, but to me they LOST 2-3 games against the Pacers.
“Two whole games” yeah one against the Heat without Jimmy and one against the Cavs without Mitchell. Not to mention had to come back down double figures against the pacers 3 times twice without Hali. So on top of having the easiest path to the finals ever your “two whole games” is really lacking perspective.
Mavs in 4-5. This series will be about selflessness. Jaylen and Jayson still hate eachother last time I checked.
Then you don’t pay enough attention