Leading up to the 2024 NBA draft, we heard over and over again that the class didn’t feature the type of star-level talent at the top that we’d seen in recent years, when No. 1 overall picks like Victor Wembanyama and Paolo Banchero went on to earn Rookie of the Year awards. The common refrain was that some of 2024’s top prospects had the ability to eventually become impact players, but none were likely to be immediate difference-makers.
[RELATED: 2024 NBA Draft Results]
So far, that has certainly been the case for the players drafted with the top few picks in June.
Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher, the No. 1 overall pick, is shooting just 38.6% from the field and 25.0% on three-pointers. Wizards center Alex Sarr is among the NBA’s leaders in blocked shots (2.1 per game), but the No. 2 overall pick has been ineffective on offense, with a 35.1% field goal percentage, including 20.3% from beyond the arc. No. 3 pick Reed Sheppard has found playing time hard to come by with the Rockets and has averaged a modest 3.7 points in 11.9 minutes per game.
Still, while the top 2024 picks aren’t exactly off to red-hot starts, there are a handful of rookies who have exceeded expectations this fall. A pair of non-lottery selections lead the way — Jared McCain of the Sixers and Dalton Knecht of the Lakers, who were drafted 16th and 17th respectively, are already making teams regret passing on them.
McCain has been one of the few bright spots for a 2-11 Sixers team, averaging 25.2 points per game on .482/.441/1.000 shooting in six appearances since becoming a regular rotation player. Knecht had a monster night on Tuesday to lead the Lakers over the Jazz, racking up 37 points and matching an NBA rookie record with nine three-pointers. He has now averaged 24.3 PPG on .673/.677/.857 shooting in his past four outings.
After Tuesday’s game, LeBron James was asked about Knecht and admitted that the Lakers drafting him at No. 17 was less about the scouting department finding a diamond in the rough and more about L.A. lucking out, as Dave McMenamin of ESPN relays.
“The other 16 teams f—ed it up,” James said. “Did anybody watch him? S–t. … You don’t ‘find’ an SEC player of the year.”
Besides McCain and Knecht, there are a few other rookies who have stood out in the early going. The Grizzlies have two of them, with lottery pick Zach Edey averaging 11.1 points and 6.9 rebounds per game as the team’s primary center and second-rounder Jaylen Wells chipping in 11.5 PPG with a .368 3PT% as a rotation mainstay.
Wizards guard Carlton Carrington (10.4 PPG, 5.0 APG, .389 3PT%), Jazz big man Kyle Filipowski (7.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.2 APG), and Suns defensive ace Ryan Dunn are among the other rookies who have made positive first impressions.
We want to know what you think. Have the results through the season’s first four weeks made your change your Rookie of the Year prediction? Are you concerned about any of the top picks in this year’s class or do you think it’s just a matter of time until they start making strides (and shots)? Do you expect McCain and Knecht to continue playing at – or even anywhere near – their current levels? Which player looks to you like the steal of the 2024 draft?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on this year’s NBA rookie class!
Don’t understand why some guys who dominate in college aren’t top five picks. Only reason I can think of for some is size but not an issue for Knecht or Edey
Both drop in the draft because of their defense skills. For Edney it takes time for big men to learn the NBA. Knecht was viewed as a 3 pt shooter with lack of skills. Both players have potential but many teams do not want to wait for them to be stars.
Knecht also dropped because he was 23 when he was drafted as well. Don’t forget that part. A lot of teams thought he didn’t have a high enough ceiling as a pro.
Not true at all @arc89. Recently, NBA teams have prioritized youth vs. experience, with the mindset being that college no longer duplicates the unique pressures of the NBA game. NBA teams have invested in player development and believe they can produce stars. Knectht’s age was the biggest issue. Looking at his draft combine strength and agility measurements backs up this up as he was near the top in most categories. Specifically, the lane agility time projects defensive movement, and there Knecht was the 2nd fastest. You can’t judge defensive ability when you’re watching a highly ranked NCAA team’s leading scorer and shooter because no college coach around would have their best shooter/scorer defend opposing teams best players. Knecht showed the ability to be physical in college, play average help defense, and hold his own. NBA teams aren’t drafting shooters to be defensive stoppers. Bottom line is, Bron is right, 16 teams effed up. His age is not a negative because you can’t teach the high release and fluid motion combined with the elite athleticism that Knecht possesses.
Nice post Savant
His off ball cutting is amazing (Daltons) which plays up well on the Lakers with their great passers and (now) great offensive schemes .
I think he will go back to the bench as they are short on scoring there once Rui is avail but he’s making a calling to be in that closing unit day after day
Yves Missi has definitely been a stand out
I think Risacher and Sarr will both be very solid players, but it will take time for them to get there. I’m surprised Knecht has been this good this early, but good for him.
I’m a Knicks fan and they’re far from stars, but every pick the Knicks made and held onto will be solid rotation players, eventually. Thibs has not been as reluctant as in the past to give them some minutes and I think it will pay off. They had a real solid draft.
This draft at the top has been brutal so far. Sarr is awful, he has no clue offensively what he is doing. Sheppard and Risacher are at best projects(neither has done anything so far to justify the pick).
Sheppard hasn’t gotten opportunity. Shooters need opportunity and time to get in rhythm. It’s hard to pop up off the bench in the NBA, and hit shots from a longer distance than in college, especially when you haven’t touched a ball since warmups 15 minutes prior. Just ask Jamal Crawford, and he was one of the best at it yet still only shot 34.8% for his career. Once Sheppard gets opportunity, either through injury or otherwise, the minutes will show he can flat out shoot. He’s probably the one shooter in this draft better than Knecht.
Barring injury from having his ankles clamped by a certain Golden State forward Edey is still my pick for ROY. His numbers don’t jump off the page but he’s reliable and his counting stats should get better as the team gets more acclimated to playing with him.
Knecht can’t keep the pace of the last four games. Teams will start paying attention and including him on defensive schemes. McCain’s numbers will drop for the same reason as Knecht’s, that along with Maxey returning to the lineup and with Embiid and George shaking off the rust.
Risacher and Sarr were drafted on potential and will take time to develop. I don’t think we’ll see anything other than flashes of the player they’ll become for a season or two.
Stats show Edey is not going to be ROY. h his stats for a season would be 9.4 with 6.6 RB. Not ROY stats. Knecht has a better chance because of scoring. Don’t forget there are a few others like Mccain having a better year.
Actually he averages 11.1PPG, 6.9RPG, 0.9SPG and 1.1BPG on 20.1MPG. It would make sense that as he and team get more comfortable with each other while he starts to play more minutes those numbers would go up.
As far as as Knect? His numbers will drop as defenses start keying in on him. Defenses will key on in McCain’s well. When Maxey returns and Embiid and George shake off the rust with the exception of rest nights for George and Embiid McCain becomes the 4th option.
Same can be said for Edey when Ja comes back a lot less touches of the ball. Most of those stats were without Smart and Dane on the floor.
You really think defenses will key in on him versus Lebron on AD? That’s silly. You can’t guard everyone on an opposing team and he’s shown he knows how to pass and cut. He may be on the scouting report now, especially if he continues to start but one thing all NBA teams do, is let opposing players shoot corner threes after dribble penetration. Oh yeah, Knecht shot 84% on corner threes in the NBA combine.
There no schemes for a Rookie when you have Bron and AD on the team. He’s getting his points. Cause he’s smart enough and talented enough to play off of that.
Well siad KnickerbockerAl! Vets and coaches don’t respect rookies. JJ has told everyone DK is top 1% in the league and he got everything he wanted last night. The big thing is, he can hit the contested three because his release is Bird-esque. He won’t be Bird, or even close, but the Lakers don’t need him to be. A better Kyle Korver would do just fine.
Surely, no one can shoot over 60% from the field and three-point range for a season, like Knecht has done the last six games. No one is suggesting that. Can he shoot in the low 40s percentage wise while spacing the court for Bron and AD? Absolutely. Note the three dunks, including one oop, last night. He knows how to attack the basket and pass. Rick Barnes is one of the better coaches in the NCAA in terms of teaching fundamentals on offense and defense. He’s just not a great recruiter, but Knecht knows how to play. Sadly, Edey is one-dimensional, although that one dimension is elite. He can score inside and rebound and block the occasional shot. Right now, McCain and Knecht are the two obvious leaders for ROY but this will change as playing time changes and the season progresses. Does JJ keep Knecht in the starting lineup when Rui returns or does he demote Reddish back to the bench? This will determine how much opportunity Knecht gets. Will Philly get healthy and put McCain in the starting lineup with their big three so that court spacing is better? Time will tell. Edey will likely have the most consistent minutes of all rookies.
Knecht has shown in Tournament who he is. Yes his age worked against him with some teams. To me there is no one more ready to start. Lakers will see it too.
It’s way too early. 20 games further in, we’ll know who is solid and steady, and who is streaky; numbers can change a lot in that time
The draft has become more about upside. You don’t want to miss on a 19yr old. Who could be a star at 25 yrs old. This is what the lottery and even first rd has become. To identify the next 19 yr old who will become a solid NBA. Look at Knicks taking Dadiet a 18yr late in first rd. Clearly not ready for mins on this team. But has a bright future. Teams look at a 22 yr old as not much upside today.
The draft should be about helping your team. Whether it’s rebuilding, retooling, or filling a need.
Look at Grizz. They filled a big need. With a ready now big. Who is till growing as a player.
Lakers got lucky. Knecht just fell to them, but he was perfect for them. Most 19 yr olds even the top picks. Are not ready for major mins. You can do more harm by playing them and pushing them. Their body has not even peaked yet.
Knecht and Edey are both late bloomers. Both were smart enough to understand that and stayed in school to get better. Didn’t run for the money like most 19yr olds do.
Edey started playing ball late in life. You see his shape now. This kid has big time character imo. Has come a long way and is still improving. Character and commitment can take talent a long way lols…. Got much respect for Zach ……..
I said Knecht was the steal of the draft.
And with the Lakers he can give them mins. Cause they need another body that can play NOW. I thought he had a good chance at ROY.
Out of all top picks coming in. Seems Castle is the one doing best. That’s cause he’s 2Way and has positional size.
link to statmuse.com
Knecht wouldn’t have been drafted if he didn’t play a fifth season at Tennessee. In fact, he would have been lucky to be in the G League prior to last year. Dude knows how to work and believes in himself. There will be some good players to come out of this draft, as we’ve already seen, they’re just not the 19 year olds. You’re right though, the draft is about developing talent. Personally, I’d rather spend $20-30 million on a contributing player than developing raw skills for years at that cost, with no guarantee that the player will become great. Some players are a sure thing, but they are generational talents. Even Stephen Curry was thought to be too small and slow to be effective in the NBA. Harden and Curry have proven that shooting and ball-handling ability can more than make up for average explosiveness and athleticism.
Both Harden and Curry got better in the pros. Although Harden is washed now. That’s what real talent does. The mamba mentality is a Real thing. Not all have it. Not all can sustain it. As fans and outsiders. That’s the one thing we can’t really judge till much later. If Zion had it. He’d be the one today —- not AntMan.
For all the grief Randle gets. He works on his game and body. That’s why he’s reached all star status. Too many talented players never get much better.
I’m accepting apologies from everyone who talked crap about JJ not deserving a coaching spot. The list is very long.
He was my pick for Coach of the Year in the pre season. It’s still early but so far he’s proving he knows what he’s doing.
This draft isn’t any different that the preceding ones, except for the very top.
It reflects (at least as to the US players) the college player base, which is bifurcated into 1) guys 4-6 years out of High School, who don’t have the measurables NBA teams looks for, and 2) teenagers who do, but are frighteningly raw (so much so that it’s often difficult to assess their ceiling or floor). Those groups are generally unattractive, and has teams looking overseas. The new thing over the past few years is that US player development has descended to the point that young foreign players now can compete with young US players (it’s all about measurables, neither group can really play yet).
The good new, for some, is that the league’s teams break down similarly. Some trying win, some trying to lose, and some suspicious of both groups. Most of the draft picks, and almost all the lottery picks, are held by teams in the latter two groups of teams.
How does a lethal 3 level scorer drop to #17? Well, LBJ is wrong on the reason, 16 teams didn’t f– up. More like most of those 16 teams weren’t necessarily looking for the best player, preferring to draft upside/ flexibility. It’s broader than simple tanking.
link to sports-reference.com
Edey started playing ball late in HS. At Purdue he got better every year. Now as a pro he’s better today than when he was drafted. He has the mamba mentality. And can get much better yet. He’s still adapting to his new body. He’s got attitude too. He’s got my respect.