As we relayed on Friday, three-time Most Valuable Player Nikola Jokic led the way in the first MVP straw poll conducted by ESPN’s Tim Bontemps for the 2024/25 season. However, while Jokic earned 57 first-place votes from the 100 media members polled by Bontemps, it’s clearly a three-player race at this point.
Jokic totaled 827 total points in the voting, with Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 678 points and Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo at 643. Gilgeous-Alexander received 24 first-place votes, while Antetokounmpo got 19 — no other player earned a single first-place vote, and Celtics forward Jayson Tatum was the only other player to even claim a second-place vote (he got three).
Plenty could change between now and the end of the regular season, and injury luck is always a factor, but it seems highly likely at this point that one of Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Antetokounmpo will be named this season’s Most Valuable Player. Here are their cases so far:
Nikola Jokic:
As usual, the Nuggets center has been an advanced-stats star. He leads the NBA in player efficiency rating (31.9), win shares per 48 minutes (.287), box plus/minus (12.8), and value over replacement player (3.0).
Of course, Jokic’s traditional stats look awfully impressive too. His 31.0 points per game would be a career best, as would his league-leading 50.0% mark on three-point attempts. He’s nearly averaging a triple-double, with 13.0 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game.
The main knock against Jokic at this point is that his Nuggets are fighting to stay out of play-in territory — they’re currently tied for sixth in the Western Conference at 14-11. But it’s hard to blame the big man for that modest record. Denver has a +9.7 net rating in his 819 minutes on the court, while their net rating in the 391 minutes he hasn’t played is a brutal -14.3.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.3 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds per game with a 50.8% field goal percentage, a very strong mark for a guard. He’s also the only player in the NBA who is averaging at least two steals and one block per contest.
The fact that MVPs historically come from teams at or near the top of the standings works in SGA’s favor — his Thunder are 22-5, which is the second-best record in the league and the top mark in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City has a three-game lead in the conference standings on the No. 2 Rockets.
While his supporting cast is certainly stronger than Jokic’s, Gilgeous-Alexander has obviously had a huge hand in OKC’s success. The team has a +15.5 net rating in his 935 minutes and a +1.5 mark in 361 minutes without him on the floor.
The Thunder star also ranks first in the NBA in defensive win shares (2.0) and total win shares (5.4), while placing just behind Jokic in WS/48, BPM, and VORP. His only real weakness is his subpar three-point rate of 33.5% on 6.3 attempts per night.
Giannis Antetokounmpo:
No NBA player has averaged more points per game this season than Antetokounmpo (32.7), who is also among the league leaders in rebounds per game (11.6). The Bucks forward also fills the box score with 6.0 assists and 1.5 blocks per night, along with a career-best field goal percentage of 61.3%.
Giannis is right there with Jokic in terms of PER (31.8) and ranks third behind Jokic and SGA in BPM (9.1) and VORP (2.4). He earns extra points for pulling the Bucks out of an early-season hole, but as a result of that slow start, the team is still just 15-12, fifth in the Eastern Conference. That won’t help his case, so the Bucks will have to keep winning.
Antetokounmpo’s on/off-court numbers are also surprisingly unflattering compared to his top two MVP competitors. Milwaukee’s net rating is essentially the same with him on the court (+1.4) as it is when he’s not playing (+1.3).
We want to know what you think. Which of these three players would you be your MVP pick right now? Which one do you expect to lead the MVP race as the season progresses? Outside of this trio, which player do you think has the best chance to make a run at this season’s MVP award?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!
Jokic is having a great season as usual but so is SGA and the Thunder are seven games ahead of the Nuggets in the standings. If I had a vote and had to vote at this point in the season I’d go with 1-Shai Gorgeous-Alexander 2-Jokìc 3-Tatum 4-Giannis 5-Mitchell.
With respect, I cant think of a more asinine idea of talking about MVPs in December. It’s not just this site, in fact this place is clearly just following the lead of social media here but still, why do people do this? What does it do? Who cares??
Ime Udoka
I love Giannis, but its probably Jokic’s to win. That NET rating with or without Giannis has to be too small a sample size or something, because the Bucks are not the same team without him. That’s a crazy stat. Their bench is really bad. No team is scared about the Bucks reserves scoring. They all can have their moments, and get hot, but its not enough night in and night out.
I’d love to see Gilgeous-Alexander win it, but metrics favor Jokic’s game right now.
Most important player on most dominant team so far. Donovan Mitchell can’t get an honorable mention.