Of the 15 teams in the Western Conference, only two are clearly focused more on the 2025 draft lottery than the 2024/25 standings. The 10-31 Jazz and 14-28 Trail Blazers don’t have realistic postseason aspirations this season, with management prioritizing the development of young players and the possibility of landing another high draft pick.
Those two teams are sandwiching the 12-32 Pelicans, who definitely didn’t expect their season to play out like this. Plagued by injuries since top offseason acquisition Dejounte Murray broke his hand on opening night, New Orleans has won its past four games but likely dug too deep a hole in the first half to seriously vie for a play-in spot this season, even if the roster gets (and stays) fully healthy.
Still, that leaves 12 teams in the hunt for eight playoff spots in the Western Conference.
We can safely pencil in the Thunder for one of those spots — and it will almost certainly be the top one. At 35-7, Mark Daigneault‘s squad has a seven-game cushion on the next-best team in the conference.
The Rockets (28-14), Grizzlies (28-15) and Nuggets (26-16) round out the current top four in the West and appear well positioned to claim playoff berths. That’s not necessarily a lock, given how competitive the conference is — a single injury could be all it takes for one of those teams to fall back to the pack. But they’re in strong positions.
After the top four, things gets interesting. Here are the current Western Conference standings from five through 12:
- Los Angeles Clippers (24-18)
- Los Angeles Lakers (22-18)
- Dallas Mavericks (23-20)
- Sacramento Kings (22-20)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (22-21)
- Phoenix Suns (21-21)
- Golden State Warriors (21-21)
- San Antonio Spurs (19-22)
These eight teams are separated by a total of 4.5 games. The gap from No. 6 to 11 is just two games. A five-game winning streak or losing streak for any of these clubs could significantly change the perception of how their season is going.
To that point, as recently as January 4, the Kings were 12th in the conference at 16-19, while the Spurs were in eighth place at 18-16. A Sacramento hot streak and a San Antonio cold spell have resulted in those two clubs swapping places in the standings just seven games later.
The Spurs are probably a little ahead of schedule in their rebuild and didn’t necessarily expect to make the postseason this year, so if they continue to slump, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for them. But the rest of the clubs listed above had serious playoff aspirations this season. The Clippers, Lakers, Mavericks, Timberwolves, Suns, and Warriors are all spending into the tax on their rosters, and the Kings aren’t far off.
Barring a major collapse from one of the top four seeds, one of these clubs (or two, if San Antonio sticks around) will finish outside the top 10, missing out not just on the playoffs but on the play-in altogether. Two more will be eliminated in the play-in tournament and will fail to clinch one of the eight playoff spots in the West.
What happens at the trade deadline could go a long way toward determining how this race plays out down the stretch, but we want to know what you’re thinking at the halfway point of the season.
Which teams do you expect to finish outside of the top 10 in the West? Which teams will be eliminated in the play-in? Which clubs besides the Thunder are the most serious contenders to represent the conference in this year’s NBA Finals?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!
Still see a OKC-Memphis conf finals. Trust Grizz’ closers and experience more than Houston.
Dallas is a wild card, but who knows where they’ll be standings-wise. Denver also is in the mix but don’t trust their depth
Would be v surprised if team outside those 4 makes conf finals. Rockets most likely today the party but I think they first have to upgrade the FVV spot
To crash the party **
OKC – much better record than expected; moderate shock if not representing West in Finals
Houston – much better than expected; indifferent if not representing West in Finals
Memphis – better than expected; indifferent if not representing
Denver – slightly worse than expected; moderate shock if not representing
LAC – on par with what expected; high shock if representing West in Finals
LAL – slightly better than expected; high shock if representing West
Dallas – moderately worse than expected; slight shock if not representing
Sacramento – much worse than expected; moderate shock if representing West
Minnesota – much worse than expected; indifferent if not representing
Phoenix – much worse than expected; slight shock if representing
Golden State – moderately worse than expected; high shock if representing
San Antonio – moderately better than expected; through-the-stratosphere shock if representing
IMO
4 best teams in the playoffs will be
Mavs
Grizzlies
Thunder
Nuggets or Clippers
4?
Tough spot 5~12
You almost feel like you shouldn’t buy, cant stand still and selling is not an option. I see a lot of inactivity overall with teams letting the cards fall where they may for 2025 in this pocket .
Wide open enough in margins that one of those teams could easily get hot/lucky as is and Rep the West. I don’t particularly trust any of the top 3 teams yet to steamroll thru
It’s a bloodbath…
Crunch – I’m interested in what weakness you see in OKC this season that would make them vulnerable to any other team in the Western Conference playoffs, esp 5-8?
OKC has taken their defense up two notches since last season, and we haven’t even seen Hartenstein and Chet play together yet. SGA is unstoppable. My take is that only Luka/Kyrie and Jokic can win more than 1 game against these guys. IMO, this team is built for playoff basketball.
When you watch the thunder against Cleveland twice in the last couple weeks, you could see they are VERY reliant on SGA. I don’t see them getting into trouble on the way to the conference finals, but I’m wondering out loud if something should happen to him and he misses time? Would the thunder be vulnerable?
Yall are gunna hate me for this, but if GSW make it in, and Curry and Dray are cooking, they will go far. They def need to trade for Vooch for this to happen tho…
No bro, I for one like your comments and appreciate them. Your opinion is no less valid than any of ours. Keep them coming, they stir up a lot of conversation.
We’re not just going to keep quiet if we disagree with you, and we’re going to call you out. Then you call us out. That’s the fun !!
I don’t think the Warriors trade for improvement on their chances this season. I think they cash it in and call it a day and a preserve curry and dump the rest or at least try to.
Bold moves, but I think that’s the way to go considering how they’ve played the last Month or longer.
They can win vs an old slow team, I think a team like Houston or even San Antonio is a terrible match for them.
The Warriors need a lot of luck to make the play in and then even more to progress…