More than any other NBA end-of-season award, Coach of the Year depends in large part on the preseason expectations for a given team. The top candidates for Coach of the Year recognition almost always come from the teams that surpass the win totals projected for them in the fall by the greatest margin.
It’s perhaps no surprise, then, that a pair of head coaches from the Central Division are currently considered the frontrunners for this season’s award.
Oddsmakers pegged Cleveland’s over/under for this season at 48.5 wins, but the 48-10 Cavaliers are on the verge of surpassing that total with six-and-a-half weeks left in the regular season. New head coach Kenny Atkinson, hired away from the Warriors last spring, has unlocked the Cavs’ offense, which has posted a league-leading 122.2 offensive rating this season after finishing at 114.7 (16th) in 2023/24.
In an unusual twist, Atkinson’s stiffest competition may come from the man he replaced in Cleveland. J.B. Bickerstaff was let go by the Cavaliers last spring and their results this season suggest it was the right move. But Bickerstaff has been a revelation in Detroit, where the Pistons, projected for an over/under of 24.5 wins, currently hold a 32-26 record.
We knew coming into the season that the Pistons probably weren’t going to go 14-68 again, like they did under Monty Williams a year ago, but there weren’t too many experts or fans who expected them to make a strong push for a guaranteed (top-six) playoff spot in the East. As of today, they holds the No. 6 seed, with a four-game cushion on the No. 7 Magic.
After finishing 27th in offensive rating and 25th in defensive rating last season, the Pistons rank in the top 13 in both categories in ’24/25, with Bickerstaff pressing all the right buttons to unlock first-time All-Star Cade Cunningham and to keep the team on course after its second-leading scorer (Jaden Ivey) went down with an injury on New Year’s Day. The Pistons haven’t just stayed afloat in Ivey’s absence — they’ve thrived, going 17-8 in the 25 games since he broke his fibula.
A pair of Southwest teams have exceeded expectations this season too, with Taylor Jenkins of the Grizzlies and Ime Udoka of the Rockets guiding their teams to 38-20 and 36-22 records, respectively. There was a sense coming into the season that Memphis would bounce back with better health luck and that a young Houston team would take another step forward, but I don’t think many of us were betting on both teams maintaining a 50-win pace beyond the All-Star break.
Of course, while it’s less of a surprise, given that they were the West’s top seed last spring, it’s impossible to overlook the job Mark Daigneault has done with the Thunder, whose 46-11 record puts them hot on Cleveland’s heels as the NBA’s No. 1 overall team. Oklahoma City’s +12.6 net rating is the league’s best mark and would be the second-best net rating of all-time, behind the 1995/96 Bulls (+13.4).
In the East, Joe Mazzulla has done a good job making sure the Celtics don’t succumb to a post-championship hangover, leading the team to a 42-16 record.
A pair of Los Angeles-based head coaches deserve credit too — oddsmakers projected the Lakers and Clippers to be the bottom two teams in the Pacific standings this season, but they hold the division’s top two spots to date. J.J. Redick‘s Lakers are 35-21, while Tyronn Lue‘s Clippers are 31-26 despite missing star forward Kawhi Leonard for a good chunk of the season.
We want to know what you think. Who would your Coach of the Year pick be at this point in the season? Which three coaches would be on your Coach of the Year ballot? Who do you think will ultimately win the award?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!
Kenny by a landslide
Some of us (cough cough Me) do owe Jj a little apology tho probably
Lol props for the mea culpa on JJ. But yeah this should be a landslide win for Kenny.
JB should get some down ballot votes though with what he has done in Detroit. That team is going to triple it’s win total from last which is incredible.
My prediction
Atkinson 94% chance to win
Udoka 3%
Jenkins 2%
Redick 1%
Landslide? Lol. The guy took over a team that’s had home court advantage in the playoffs (99 wins) the last 2 years. Bickerstaff may take arguably the worst team of ALL-TIME to a top 4 seed in the span of a single season. Saying landslide to a guy that took over a home-court playoff team is absolutely bonkers.
1. Atkinson
2. Bickerstaff
3. Redick
Honorable Mention: Jordi Fernandez
The Nets have twice as many wins as they should because of this man. They literally had to sabotage the team before the deadline because they were winning too many games.
I also wonder how much of Jordi leaving his assistant gig in Sacramento can explain them falling off this year. I’m not saying it’s all him but I don’t think it’s a coincidence either.
Joe maz is worthy. Maybe he isn’t the sexy pick but Celtics look primed to repeat
In order: Kenny, Bickerstaff, Udoka.
Bickerstaff is elite at raising the floor of a team (and as a Cavs fan I witnessed it firsthand), but in my mind it’s easier to go from bad to decent than it is to go from good to elite. He deserves plenty of credit, but it also may or may not hurt his case that the team he coached last year is now better without him.
Before the Hunter trade, Kenny had almost the exact same roster that Bickerstaff did last year, and they’ve gone from a team with a second round ceiling to a team that has a legitimate chance to win the Finals.
I think this is overlooking a few things for JB
1. Garland was physically a shell of himself last season
2. Jerome missed the entire season
3. Another year of growth from Mobley
Now the reason Kenny is COY is because he completely remade their offense, which is ultimately what got Bickerstaff fired, but the rosters weren’t “quite” the same even if they were on paper.
I do think Kenny deserves the lionshare of the credit for Ty Jerome, as the system turned an 11th-12th man into a high-level 6th-7th man.
One of these days, Ty Jerome will be the main culprit of a lost close game, they just better hope that it won’t be a crucial playoff game.
Ty Jerome has doubled, tripled down on his ballhog tendencies.
Winner: Kenny (who also is a better coach by every metric over Kerr).
Atkinson over Bickerstaff by a small margin.
Atkinson though, has the benefit of a superior in-their-prime roster – a legit superstar, an all-star level PG and two defensive mobile bigs, lob-threats to boot ……. an already deep shooting bench, plus was recently gifted with Hunter.
My very early COY pick was Mosley, too bad all those injuries derailed their season.
I picked Redick at the start of the season. With the Lakers surging and the Lakers boas I may just be right. They’re only two back of the 2 seed in the West and he’s got old man LeBron playing defense again as of late. That alone should worth a few points.