The Grizzlies were tied for second place in the West as recently as March 14, while the Warriors held a top-five spot in the conference for the entire first week of April. However, neither Memphis nor Golden State was able to lock up a guaranteed playoff spot in the final days of the regular season.
The two teams will face one another on Tuesday in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game for the Western Conference, with the winner earning the right to enter the playoffs as the seventh seed and match up with Houston in round one.
Although the Warriors and Grizzlies finished the season with matching 48-34 records, the two clubs were headed in opposite directions down the stretch.
Hours after finalizing a trade for Jimmy Butler on February 6, Golden State fell to 25-26 on the season and held the No. 10 seed in the West only by a tiebreaker. But the Warriors won Butler’s debut two days later and never fell below .500 again, finishing the season on a 23-8 run. During that stretch, Golden State had the NBA’s third-best winning percentage (.742), eight-best offensive rating (118.2) and top defensive rating (109.0).
The Warriors aren’t entering the postseason as one of the title favorites, having stumbled a little as of late — they would have clinched a playoff berth already if they hadn’t lost three of their last five games, including a disappointing defeat to the lottery-bound Spurs last Wednesday. But they’ve certainly looked better than the Grizzlies, whose season has been trending downward in recent months.
On the day of the trade deadline, the Grizzlies had a 35-16 record. But two days later, on the same day the Warriors won Butler’s debut, Memphis lost to Oklahoma City to kick off an uninspiring stretch that saw the team finish the season by going just 13-18. Lottery teams like Portland and Toronto had better records during that stretch than the Grizzlies, who ranked in the bottom half of the league in both offensive rating (115.6) and defensive rating (116.0) from Feb. 8 onward.
Oh, and Memphis also made a head coaching change during that time, replacing Taylor Jenkins with assistant Tuomas Iisalo on March 28. The Grizzlies have a 4-5 record since that change.
The Grizzlies have plenty of talent on their roster and Warriors stars Stephen Curry (thumb) and Butler (thigh) are dealing with nagging ailments, so the result of Tuesday’s Western Conference play-in game is hardly a foregone conclusion. Still, after accounting for the Warriors’ 3-1 record vs. Memphis this season and the fact that they’ll be hosting Tuesday’s play-in game in San Francisco, it’s not hard to understand why Golden State is considered a good bet to advance — BetOnline.ag has the Warriors listed as seven-point favorites.
Over in the East, it’s a battle of the year’s top Southeast teams on Tuesday, as the No. 7 Magic (41-41) host the No. 8 Hawks (40-42). The winner will claim the seventh seed and face Boston in the first round of the playoffs.
It has been an odd season in Orlando, where the Magic looked like one of the conference’s top teams in early going despite losing Paolo Banchero and then Franz Wagner to oblique tears that sidelined them for extended periods. But the Magic’s injury issues – which also ended Jalen Suggs‘ and Moritz Wagner‘s seasons early – eventually caught up with them, resulting in a 12-26 midseason swoon from December to March that cost the team a chance at a top-six seed.
Orlando finished the year strong, winning nine of its last 12 games, and performed very well defensively on the season as a whole, registering the league’s second-best defensive rating (109.1). But even with Banchero and Wagner on the court, the Magic struggled to score — their 108.9 offensive rating ranked 27th in the NBA, ahead of only Brooklyn, Charlotte, and Washington.
The Hawks, meanwhile, appeared to be in trouble when rising star forward Jalen Johnson went down in January with a season-ending shoulder injury. They were 22-22 as of Johnson’s last game and promptly fell several games below .500 without him before trading away second-leading scorer De’Andre Hunter at the trade deadline shortly thereafter.
But instead of continuing to slide down the standings and ending up in the lottery, Atlanta got a second wind, led by Trae Young, Onyeka Okongwu, Dyson Daniels, and Zaccharie Risacher, along with deadline additions like Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, and Terance Mann.
As good as Daniels has been defensively this season, the Hawks’ overall team defense has lagged behind — it was their offense that propelled them to a spot in the No. 7 vs. 8 play-in game. From March 6 onward, Atlanta went 12-8 and posted the second-best offensive rating in the Eastern Conference (120.4).
Tuesday’s matchup, in which the Magic are listed as five-point favorites, per BetOnline, could come down to how much headway the Hawks’ offensive weapons can make against one of the NBA’s best defensive units in Orlando.
We want to know what you think. Which two teams will claim playoff spots on Tuesday and which ones will have to try again on Friday to punch their tickets into round one?
Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions.
I’m going to have to wear my brown britches while watching the warrior game tonight. Could be some tense moments.
You all know this story, right?
A sea captain sees an enemy ship on the horizon. He calls to his first mate
“Bring me my red shirt.”
A tremendous battle ensues in which the pirate captain is victorious.
His curious first mate asks him, “Captain, why did you wear your red shirt into battle?” To which the captain responds,
“Because that way if I were wounded the blood would not be noticeable and the men would fight on.”
The first mate was impressed, until the next day when the captain spotted ten enemy ships on the horizon and called to his first mate,
“Bring me my brown britches.”
Yeah, if Steph has 8 TOs again it could be tough to watch.
If they settle for 3 pt shots and not drive to the basket they will lose. Grizzles foul a lot get their big men in foul trouble.
GSW absolutely is losing, they are 0-3 in play in games. Kerr does not know how to coach in these 1 off games, he will play his worst players too long and GSW will lose because of it. Kerr should have been fired in 2024, and still should be. Because he can’t coach them to a W, he only knows “Curry going off” is what wins games. GSW/Kerr without Curry is who Kerr really is as a HC – a bad one.
GP2 is never better than Kuminga, especially if you need perimeter defense or inside defense, he provides neither. Just energy and a couple steals. He has never locked down any stars defensively this year for a full game, and yet Kerr thinks he is suddenly an all-star. Kuminga’s spacing destroys GP2s. GP2 isnt in the top 10 players on GSW at all. Watch him get minutes over better players. Buddy stinks and provides nothing other than helping Kerr play his 4 smalls lineups too. Kerr will play these 2 worthless players far too long tonight, and GSW will lose because of it.
Davey, who are you? One day we’re winning the championship the next day we’re losing tonight?
Don’t lose faith.
This is our warriors. Going to be a great game and it’s only Memphis. Brand new coach.., they’re so out of sorts It’s not even funny.
They’re too immature for the players to lead them to the promised land and having a new coach new direction new voice won’t help either in this must win game tonight.
They’ll start getting a little tight in the fourth quarter and fall apart when the going gets tough.
Just have a little faith Davey. It’s not over yet. Championships and multiple rings for Curry in front of us, remember?
And enough of all this being Kerr’s fault. It’s not Kerr’s fault. It’s the entire group as a unit.
Gary, its called “being an analytical fan, not a homer” The analytics say “Giving GP2 more than 15 mins a game is suicide” and Kerr has decided to chose suicide. We are screwed if he truly thinks GP2 is a top 5 player on this team. Why is he late and close closing vs anyone, let alone playoff teams like the Clippers?
We are 3-5 in GP2s last 8 games he plays in and 6-1 in the last 7 games he doesnt play in – deciding randomly GP2 is Michael Jordan, is Kerr’s latest baffling gaffe he pulls based off his insane obsession with running back the 2022 small ball lineups.
Kerr does nothing to help the team win, all other NBA HC’s do their best. Direct Kerr quote “The 15-50 season was my favorite, because there’s less pressure when losing”. Gary, even you can see that from 2023-present, Kerr has been sensationally bad at his job. Time for a new, fresh approach from Kerr’s stale small ball!
Kerr is coaching to keep his job. If he loses the next 2 games, Lacob won’t just run it back next year.
If you can’t make the playoffs with Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler, it’s because you insisted on surrounding them with the smallest team in the NBA.
My prediction: GSW makes the playoffs and beats HOU.
This proves once again that Davey J is not a Warriors fan. It is just a troll trying to bait people. You really can’t ignore the facts. Kuminga has had his worst shooting year. Heild and GPII have had better shooting years. When you can’t hit an outside shot, you are not creating space. Defenders will just sag on Butler and Green. The plus/minus for the trio of Kuminga/Butler/Green is -24.
Kuminga is a better defender than GPII or Heild. But, since the Butler trade, and Kuminga playing less due to injury, the Warriors defense has gotten stingier and the scoring has gone up. Why mess with success?
Now Davey is going to claim he is a victim and being trolled. But, the numbers show you are wrong. And the 23-8 run shows Kerr is doing the right thing. Go ahead. Try and dispute the actual facts.
Giants74, you choose numbers to suit your argument, but, in fact, their totality proves the opposite. Listen to the world outside our GSW bubble and you’ll see.
We had the 2nd weakest schedule in the NBA for Butler’s first 20 games. We won the games we were supposed to. Since then, we’re headed in the opposite direction. That’s what the numbers say.
Outside our bubble, you’ll hear these facts:
– We just lost 3 of our last 5 games, including 2 at home, and 2 to playoff teams Houston and Clippers.
– We’re not “peaking at the right time.”
– We failed to make the playoffs. No team has ever won a Championship with that distinction.
– We failed at our stated goal of integrating our best young player, the only wing defender with size on the roster following Wiggins’ departure. That means, per all of Kerr, Lakob, and Dunleavy prior to JK’s return from injury, we failed to “raise our ceiling” to the level required to win a Championship.
In getting beaten against Houston and the Clippers, we showed an inability to defend the 3-point shot and the interior. Other than Steph’s and Butler’s individual play, there was little else to like.
The Clippers got wherever they wanted on the floor. Playing GP2 was a big part of that, as was playing the smallest lineup in the NBA.
ARI, this is all crap. The Warriors beat Houston and the Lakers and Memphis right before they lost to Houston and that was four games and six nights. Those are all playoff teams.
The Warriors ARE a playoff team and WILL make the playoffs if they win tonight or Friday night. Are you saying only the top SIX teams in the West make the playoffs?
That’s not correct eight teams make the playoffs the bottom two just have to play an extra game or two to get in.
Didn’t the Warriors go Something like 14–2 in those games they were “supposed to win.” I don’t care who you’re playing that’s an impressive start integrating a brand new guy who’s an integral part of your offense AND defense. It’s very impressive.
And it shows the type of team they are and player he is for that to happen. 100% unselfishness Regarding all parties. Very impressive.
ARI, this is all crap #2.
You can’t integrate your best young player if he’s not any good. I’m not even going to develop that thought.
JK doesn’t deserve playing time in huge games. These are huge games and he’s just now coming off a six week ankle injury. If the Warriors make it, you may play him game one and two in the hopes of getting him on track quickly But a playoff game against the Clippers a couple nights ago is not the place for experiments like some of you guys want to do.
Warriors are already experimenting with Moses Moody !! Moody had a fine first half until everything fell apart for him in the last three minutes of the second quarter against the Clippers.
Two turnovers, missed layups, bad defense and horrendous decisions. You’ll notice he sat in crunch time because Gary Payton won’t make those mistakes and plays equal wing defense.
And maybe Gary Payton will get a put back dunk for you whereas Moses Moody has never done that in the history of his NBA playing career. In fact, I think he’s had two monster slams in the last six months that I’ve seen. Should be once a week or heaven forbid, once a game.
ARI, this is all crap #3.
The Clipper game went to overtime. Did you watch? It doesn’t get any closer than that. The Clippers are strong watch them take out the Lakers if LeBron‘s not careful. Might happen.
The Warriors went to to toe with a very strong team. They have size length defense 2 all world players performing at a high level right now. James Harden showed up and so did Kahwi. Those are two superstars. Zubac is a great center. Top five in the entire league? Maybe But call me out on that if necessary. In any case he’s a darn good postman.
All that and the Warriors went face-to-face toe to toe and overtime against them. Clippers had the foot on the gas. They did not want to be a seven seat either. That was the best they could give, and the Warriors took everything they had.
Small ball, big ball, whatever. This is the Warriors. You play the guys you feel can help you win. Gary Payton is 6-1 so what? He won’t make stupid mistakes I’ll tell you that.
Gary- take a closer look at my posts, please. I read all of your responses closely, and I hope you will read this one from me.
1) I clearly stated that I predict the Warriors will make the playoffs. (We’re playing 2 home games, the odds are prohibitively in our favor.) But a 7th place has only a 53% less chance of winning a ‘Chip than a 6th place team.
2) Every statement I made about ease of schedule, wins-losses, and our recent losses is factual.
3) As far as the importance of integrating Kuminga, I was I was quoting each of Joe, Jacob, Mike Dunleavy, and Steve Kerr in the period between acquiring Butler and Kuminga‘s return. All of them said the following we can be much better with Butler than we were before but Kuminga “raises our ceiling“ to the level of winning more playoff series.
You may well be right that Kuminga sucks, but all 3 of Kerr, Dunleavy and Kerr made explicit public statements to disagree with you. They don’t believe that this team has enough beyond Steph, Draymond, and Jimmy to win more than one round of playoffs. They all said we need another scorer and wing defender. And if you listen to anybody outside our GSW bubble after the Clippers game, that’s the common take on us.
Gary, ask yourself this: if Lacob and Dunleavey weren’t committed to Kuminga going forward, why wouldn’t they have traded him a few months ago when his value was so high?! We could have had a C or a badly needed wing defender. Weren’t we going all in?
Beyond our Big 3, this group is still too young and too small to win more than one series. Our bench scored 12 points and Moody 4 points against the Clippers. In his last 10 games, Moody has shot is shooting 30% from 3 and averaged 8 points. We’re playing 3, sometimes 4, short guys at once. Our small guards help with rebounding, and the result is poor 3-point defense.
BTW, GP2 does some nice things, but statistically he’s one of the worst 3 point defenders in the NBA. It’s not just that he’s too short to contest. Over the last 2 seasons, he’s the most likely NBA player to foul a 3 point shooter per minute.
ARI, I always read your entire post. And when I comment, I reread it. Even the long ones. I’m one of your biggest fans so if I miss something, it’s because I’m a little bit slow, not because I didn’t read it lol
I have responded in the past to that Jonathan Kuminga language from coaching and ownership by stating the obvious.
You pump a kid up with 1/4 of the season to go. You’re not going to tell him he sucks and you’re trading him this summer.
You want him to succeed so it’s rah time. That’s fundamental business sports psyche 101.
You can always change your mind when the summer comes and say, hey our best move now is to such and such, give him the money or trade him whatever that is.
But no one in their right mind tears a guy down with two months left in the season. “It’s go time. You can do it, we need you,” etc. Life 101 and that’s what Joe Jacob did.
It’s not deceiving. It’s facts. Go get them. We’re behind you. This summer we’ll decide what to dole out when it comes.
Who was available for Jonathan Kuminga at $3 million per year?
OK add Kevon Looney another 8 million so for $11 million you lose a back up center and who can you get at that price?
The only guy really available and who would’ve benefited the Warriors was the center from the Bulls. But he’s at $18-20 million. So that’s Payton Looney Jonathan Kuminga for a veteran “Quentin Post type.” No thanks. The Warriors already have a Quentin post type.
There were no takers for JK at the trade deadline. Everyone has heard the whispers that he wants Max and there’s not a team on the face of the planet who will give him $40 million a year.
The Warriors were stuck with him at the deadline.
Everything else you wrote I agree with. Good stuff Ari.
Being thats its one game. Home court means a lot imo. Magic were a solid team most if year. Then injuries started to hurt them. Hawks have had some good wins. This is a tough one. Banchero is the difference here. Magic win.
Warriors are home and Kuminga is listed as questionable. Not a good sign. Grizzlies and Warriors have a real rivalry. Grizz missing players too. Should be a tough game. Warriors should pull it out.
> Warriors are home and Kuminga is listed as questionable. Not a good sign.
Not sure what to make of this, but 2 possibilities come to mind:
1. JK’s ankle truly is still limiting him, which is why he hasn’t been jumping.
2. More likely, the Warriors are trying to protect his value in the trade market. Given that they don’t intend to play him, an ankle injury hurts his value less than the statement they don’t value him.
Jonathan Kuminga is not playing because he sucks.
Some of us have been saying this for two years. They’re not suddenly going to become great players if they don’t have it. Both guys are gone this summer 100%. Moody is Wiggins. Mr. casual, never seen him sprint even one time. Buddy Hield sprints his assets off. Gary Payton sprints his tail off. Moody jogs.
This is absolute crunch time and you’re not worried about trade value this summer. You’re not thinking beyond tomorrow lol.
Today is the day, all hands on deck. You play who you think will help you win.
If JK is not playing it’s because he won’t help you win in the mind of those making that decision.
Let next year worry about itself.., we’ve got enough on our plate tonight. And we had enough on our plate versus the Clippers and versus the Rockets and versus the Lakers, Memphis and Denver the week before.
Where did you read that Kuminga is questionable? Locally, they are saying that only Moody is questionable due to back spasms. Everyone else has been cleared.
Giants74,
I read about Kuminga being doubtful on the wire, probably the same place KnickerbockerAl did, above.
Oh Aristotle…You didn’t dispute what I said. Kuminga has struggled all year with his shooting. According to the NBA.com bubble, the trio of Kuminga/Butler/Green struggle when on the floor together. You can’t blame JKs shooting struggles on Kerr. Podz started his season in a slump and has improved.
The Clippers also struggled to defend the 3 when they played the Warriors.
Giants74, I’m not disputing that Kuminga’s 3 point shooting is down. That was 2 sentences in your lengthy post, just as it was a small fraction of mine.
I’m disputing that the numbers you cite about our record support your conclusions about Kerr and the direction.
Are two-way players eligible for play-in games?
No.
Thanks, Luke.
Kuminga is questionable in his gameplay but not medical wise…
Hoping the Warriors get through this one.
Don’t want the stress of playing for 8th seed…can anyone here see the Kings or Mavs beating the Warriors?
@aristotle still cant reply to you even when we both have not muted each other but you are wrong: Kerr has a lifetime appointment and anything that happens is never ever his fault, even when he randomly decides tall players are bad for basketball, the game tall people dominate at. Sigh.