Extension Candidate

Extension Candidate: DeMarcus Cousins

September 7th, 2013 at 1:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

It's doubtful that there's a more divisive figure than DeMarcus Cousins among this year's extension-eligible players on rookie-scale contracts. Cousins is a rare gem — a young center who flirts with averages of 20 points and 10 rebounds. He also has a reputation as a malcontent, drawing three separate suspensions last season, according to Patricia Bender's database. Sacramento's completely revamped braintrust, from owner Vivek Ranadive to GM Pete D'Alessandro to coach Michael Malone, have to make the decision on Cousins' extension without the benefit of going through a season with him. The Kings would still have the right to match offers if they let him hit restricted free agency next summer, but the extension period offers them the opportunity for complete control and perhaps a chance.to leverage any desire Cousins may have for long-term security into a team-friendly pact.

The new-look Kings have indicated a willingness to give Cousins the benefit of the doubt. D'Alessandro came aboard with a fondness for Cousins, and he traveled with Ranadive and Malone to meet the 6'11" center in the big man's native Alabama. D'Alessandro consulted with Cousins about free agents, and team officials reportedly expressed their commitment to Cousins when they met again with him and his representatives on multiple occasions in Las Vegas over the summer.

There was some turbulence in the spring, as a report from Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio suggested that Malone's hiring meant Cousins was a "goner," but later it appeared rival teams were advancing that notion in the hopes they could shake Cousins loose at a bargain price. Later, Amico reported that Malone was excited to work with Cousins.

Through it all, agent Dan Fegan instructed Cousins to keep quiet on the incoming powers that be in Sacramento. It also looks like Fegan's going after a max contract for his client, with hints that he'll demand a trade if no such deal is forthcoming. Fegan is as cagey as they come, as witnessed by his negotiations for Dwight Howard, and he's already scored one max extension this summer, for John Wall. He negotiated the offseason's other rookie-scale extension, too, for Larry Sanders. Still, the Kings wield the hammer. If they don't want to give him a max extension, they can simply wait until next summer, allowing themselves an extra year to monitor his progress. Another team could come along with a max offer at that point, but the Kings could match it, and it could only be a four-year deal with 4.5% raises, as opposed to the five-year contract with 7.5% raises he could get from signing with Sacramento outright. Realistically, the Kings control Cousins' fate for years to come, unless he takes the drastic move of accepting his qualifying offer next summer. So, a trade demand would ring hollow.

The specter of a trade seems more likely to be a weapon for the Kings rather than an arrow in Cousins' quiver. Sacramento could sign him to a long-term deal, and if they don't like his progress, the team could swap him to a team willing to overpay for size, as SB Nation's Tom Ziller suggested. Of course, an extension could make a trade difficult, at least for the coming season, thanks to the Poison Pill Provision.

An extension for Cousins, be it for the max or otherwise, is no certainty. The Kings were an atrocious defensive team with him on the floor last season, allowing 109.5 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. That's a rate that would have made Sacramento the worst team in the league in that category. Of course, the Kings weren't much better defensively when he wasn't on the court, but it's tough to make a long-term commitment to someone who's a minus on one side of the floor. Cousins averaged a career-worst 0.7 blocks per game last season, though he did make progress on defending without fouling. He picked up 3.6 personals a night — the first time he averaged fewer than four, and the first time he didn't lead the league in total fouls committed.

He's far more evolved at the offensive end, even if his range doesn't extend much farther than eight or nine feet away from the basket. He's improved his field goal shooting in each season, though there's still room for further growth from the 46.5% mark he put up last year. He took fewer shots last season, which accounted for a dip in points per game, but he also grabbed fewer rebounds in the same minutes per contest, with a lower rebound rate, according to Basketball-Reference. That could be a function of the way former coach Keith Smart used him, but the regression still seems like a red flag.

The Kings already have about $40MM committed for next season, and with Cousins and Greivis Vasquez both up for extensions this summer, there's not much room to maneuver. Still more important than any basketball or cap-related measure is Cousins' maturity. It makes sense that the Kings have visited with him frequently throughout the summer, so that the new management can get a sense of the way he handles himself. Cousins just turned 23 last month, so it's reasonable to suggest that his youth had much to do with his past transgressions. Still, the experience of going through a walk year, and the pressures that come with it, might force him to finally grow up. It could also reveal a further inability to handle life in the NBA.

The consequences of tying him up long-term seem to outweigh the downside of letting Cousins hit free agency next summer, namely the possibility that the Kings would miss out on signing him to a bargain deal, one he and Fegan might not agree to anyway. I expect Cousins will be the most talented extension-eligible player not to get one this year.

Extension Candidate: Greivis Vasquez

September 3rd, 2013 at 9:09pm CST by Chuck Myron

Marc Stein of ESPN.com last week tweeted a list of players whom GMs see as legitimate candidates for rookie-scale extensions, and perhaps the most surprising name on it is Greivis Vasquez. He was the runner-up in Most Improved Player of the Year balloting and finished third in assists per game in his first year as a full-time point guard last season, but there are many who don't view him as a budding star. Pelicans GM Dell Demps and the rest of the team's front office apparently don't, since they gave up Nerlens Noel and a 2014 first-rounder to replace Vasquez at the point with Jrue Holiday, then shipped the former Maryland Terrapin to the Kings as part of the Tyreke Evans sign-and-trade.

Holiday scored more often last season, but he did so on a greater number of shot attempts, and he and Vasquez had nearly an identical field goal percentage. Holiday had the edge on three-point percentage, while Vasquez averaged one more assist per game. The most significant difference between the two players is probably their contracts; Holiday is entering the first season of a four-year, $41MM extension, while Vasquez has one more year left on his rookie deal. The Kings point guard probably has less room for improvement, since he's about two and a half years older, but the fact that the Pelicans gave up so much in the swap with Philadelphia indicates that they strongly believe the former Sixer is the better value. In any case, it seems unlikely that Sacramento GM Pete D'Alessandro and agent Arn Tellem, who reps Vasquez, work out a deal that pays as much as Holiday's does.

The strongest argument against a lucrative investment in Vasquez is his defense. The Pelicans (then Hornets) were woeful at stopping other teams with him in the lineup last season, giving up 108.8 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would have been worse than every other team in the league except the Bobcats if the number were extrapolated. New Orleans checked in at 28th in that category anyway, but when Vasquez went to the bench, the team only gave up 104.5 points per 100 possessions, a mark better than nine teams.

Sandwiched between New Orleans and Charlotte in that category last year was Sacramento, so there won't be much surrounding Vasquez to make up for his defensive shortcomings. The Kings also added Luc Mbah a Moute this summer, but they're going to need a lot more than that to improve on defensive. Complicating matters is that Sacramento's other rookie-scale extension candidate, Demarcus Cousins, was an even worse sieve last season, as the Kings gave up 109.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the court. It's hard to envision Sacramento having much success with a pair of defensive liabilities tied to long-term deals for major money, so unless D'Alessandro and company envision a major improvement for one or both of them, the Kings probably won't hand out extensions to more than one of them.

Cousins would probably be the team's first choice based on physical talent alone, but if the Kings don't feel like he can overcome his mental lapses, Vasquez offers some intriguing offensive value. The native of Venezuela improved his shot selection this past season, ditching midrange attempts for shots at the rim and behind the three-point arc. He's gradually built himself into a competent three-point shooter, improving from 29.1% accuracy as a rookie to 34.2% last year. His assist percentage, an estimate of the share of his teammate's shots that he assisted upon, trailed only Chris Paul, per Basketball-Reference. Many of Vasquez's assists came courtesy of his 6'6" height, which allows him to make passes other point guards can't, as Grantland's Zach Lowe pointed out this summer.

The Kings have had a revolving door at point guard the past few seasons, and ostensibly Vasquez brings some stability to the position. Isaiah Thomas is entering a walk year, and Jimmer Fredette keeping popping up in trade rumors. Still, D'Alessandro may want to see what he has in those two guys before he locks himself into Vasquez for years to come. Point guard might be a relatively weak position in the upcoming draft class, with only four point men listed among Jonathan Givony's top 25 prospects at DraftExpress (and that includes Dante Exum, who might not be part of the field), but the NBA is crowded with talented one-guards these days.

Vasquez may be willing to capitalize on his success last year and take a steep discount, perhaps opening himself up to an extension worth less than $8MM a year, which was the cheapest average annual value among the extensions signed last offseason. Even so, the Kings are probably better off taking a pass, and seeing whether their new point guard can help them creep up from the dregs of the Western Conference, or if Thomas or Fredette can have third-year breakthroughs similar to the one Vasquez had in 2012/13.

Extension/Trade Candidate: Rudy Gay

September 2nd, 2013 at 5:30pm CST by Luke Adams

The last major roster move made by former Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo came prior to 2013's trade deadline, when Toronto sent Jose Calderon to the Pistons and Ed Davis and a draft pick to the Grizzlies in order to land Rudy Gay. Gay is viewed by many as one of the league's more talented scorers, but has seen his shooting percentages and efficiency ratings slide over the last few seasons.

The acquisition of Gay appeared to be a last-ditch effort by Colangelo to save his job, an effort that was ultimately unsuccessful, as the Raptors replaced him with Masai Ujiri this summer. With Colangelo no longer in the picture in Toronto, and Gay headed for free agency as soon as next offseason, it's worth considering exactly how the veteran forward fits in the team's long-term plans.

Several weeks after the deal with the Grizzlies was finalized, a report surfaced suggesting that the Raptors were likely to offer Gay a contract extension when he became eligible. At the time, I looked into the possibility, breaking down the numbers and determining what a max extension for Gay would look like. But with Ujiri calling the shots now in Colangelo's place, it seems highly unlikely that such an offer will be made to Gay anytime soon.

Of course, an extension offer for Gay wouldn't necessarily have to be for the max, but if he didn't receive a substantial offer, the 27-year-old would have no reason to seriously consider it. After all, he has plenty of flexibility when it comes to his free agency — he'll earn about $17.89MM in 2013/14, then will decide between exercising a $19.32MM option for 2014/15 or hitting free agency in search of a new, long-term contract.

It's still too early to tell exactly what Ujiri and the Raptors' new decision-making team thinks of Gay, but they don't seem interested in shopping him yet. The Pistons reportedly offered a pair of expiring contracts for Gay earlier in the offseason, but were quickly shot down by the Raps, who aren't looking to move the UConn product, especially not for such a light return.

There's some optimism from out of Toronto that a surgical procedure on Gay's eyes will help to reverse the trend of his declining shooting percentages. Despite problems with his vision, Gay never felt comfortable wearing goggles or contact lenses, and finally had surgery this summer that the team hopes will make a difference, as head coach Dwane Casey told the Sporting News last month.

"I am keeping my fingers crossed," Casey said. "For some players, they get that done and it is like seeing a new rim. Hopefully, the same thing happens with him."

The Raptors likely won't make any final decisions on Gay until they see how he fares this season, with a full training camp in Toronto, and hopefully with improved vision. As Zach Lowe of Grantland wrote in July, the Raps privately expressed a belief that Gay would opt out of his current deal in the summer of 2014, so this season will be a crucial one for both the team and player.

I don't think the Raptors will make an extension offer, now that Colangelo isn't making Toronto's basketball decisions — if the club decides it wants to hang on to Gay long-term, a new deal in free agency next summer is the more likely scenario. But if the Raptors struggle in the first half, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Gay become one of the biggest names on the trade market for the second straight deadline.

Trading a big-name scorer for a variety of useful parts is nothing new to Ujiri, who completed a similar deal in Denver with Carmelo Anthony. Gay won't have the same sort of trade value that Carmelo did, but Ujiri, the reigning Executive of the Year, has displayed a knack for finding some value for trade assets, as he showed early on with the Raptors when he landed a first-round pick for Andrea Bargnani. It'll be interesting to see how Gay and the Raps come out of the gate this season, since the forward's performance and the team's success (or lack thereof) should play a significant role in determining Gay's future.

Extension Candidate: Gordon Hayward

August 27th, 2013 at 2:21pm CST by Chuck Myron

Over the weekend, I examined the chances that the Jazz and Derrick Favors would reach agreement on an extension. Teammate Gordon Hayward is eligible for one, too, and he may be just as valuable a part of Utah's future. He's certainly played a more prominent role in the team's recent past, showing steady progress and averaging 29.8 minutes per game the past two seasons. He, unlike Favors, has been a full-time starter for the team, but Hayward spent most of last season as a reserve, rejoining the starting lineup for the final month of the season. It seems certain that he'll start for this season's stripped-down Jazz team, but Utah's front office has to determine whether he's likely to continue to do so when there's more talent on the roster.

Hayward was the team's third leading scorer last season, at 14.1 points per game. He's the only one of the team's top-five scorers to return, and without much offensive talent coming in, he has as strong a chance as anyone to lead the Jazz in scoring this year. The former Butler University star's calling card is long-range shooting, and last season he demonstrated for the first time an ability to hit from just about every spot behind the three-point arc, as his Basketball-Reference heat map shows. He made 41.5% of his three-pointers last season, and even though he played slightly fewer minutes than in 2011/12, he upped the number of threes he took per game to 3.4 from 2.4.

He made nearly as many shots at the rim this past season as the year before, so the fact that his overall shooting percentage declined for the second year in a row is simply a reflection of Hayward's willingness to eschew mid-range jumpers. That's a choice that Jazz coach Tyrone Corbin and his staff probably encouraged Hayward to make, as the NBA increasingly values three-pointers and attempts from point-blank range over all other shots.

Hayward is evolving into the modern ideal of an offensive threat, and he's also a markedly better defender than when he came into the league. The Jazz gave up a whopping 110.8 points per 100 possessions with Hayward on the court during his rookie season, a rate worse than the league's worst defensive team that season. That number went down to 104.6 in 2011/12 and 104.0 in 2012/13. It's still a rate that would rank among the bottom half of teams, but Hayward wasn't exactly surrounded by top-flight defenders last season, and more minutes for Favors along with the departure of the sieve-like Al Jefferson figures to help mask any of Hayward's shortcomings.

The Jazz possess two of the top 10 picks in the 2010 draft in Hayward and Favors, but unlike the offensively challenged Favors, the No. 3 overall selection, Hayward is more of a two-way player. That doesn't mean the team doesn't see him as more valuable. There's always been a premium on big men in the NBA, and quality wing players like Hayward are usually in much greater supply. However, the league is experiencing an ebb in shooting guard talent these days, and while the 6'8" Hayward is much better suited as a small forward, he's played enough at the two that I suspect he'd draw interest from a few teams with holes at the two-guard position if he hits restricted free agency next summer. He'd probably be the best option under the age of 30 at that position. The Jazz would have the right to match, of course, but an inflated offer from another team would drive up Hayward's price.

Hayward scored 17.4 points per 36 minutes last season, a number virtually identical to the 17.2 points per 36 minutes that DeMar DeRozan put up in 2011/12, right before he and the Raptors agreed to a four-year, $38MM extension. Hayward was probably a better player overall in his third season than DeRozan was in his third year, as witnessed by Hayward's 16.8 PER, much preferable to DeRozan's 12.8 PER. Few saw DeRozan's extension coming, and though he showed improvement last season, his inclusion in trade rumors this summer suggests Toronto's new regime thinks their predecessors overpaid him. That means such a deal could be just right for a superior player like Hayward.

Agent Mark Bartelstein reps Hayward, and he also helped Taj Gibson get his extension from the Bulls last fall. Bartelstein is the agent for Nick Young, who didn't get a rookie-scale extension, signed his qualifying offer, and is now making the minimum salary. Bartelstein client David Lee didn't get a rookie-scale extension either, but he signed a one-year deal in restricted free agency and cashed in with a six-year, $80MM contract the next summer. So, Bartelstein understands all of the possibilities at play. I imagine he envisions a deal slightly larger than the one DeRozan got — perhaps four years, $40MM.

Doing that kind of deal, along with the $42MM to $44MM four-year extension I figure Favors will get, would tie up about $38MM or $38.5MM worth of Utah's cap space for next summer, leaving plenty of room for a maximum-salary free agent. The Jazz so far have only about $4MM in salary committed for 2015/16, when an extension or new contract for Enes Kanter would kick in, so locking up Favors and Hayward with extensions this fall wouldn't hamstring the team long-term. Paying a little bit more for them as restricted free agents next summer probably wouldn't hurt the Jazz either, but I don't think executive VP of basketball ops Kevin O'Connor and GM Dennis Lindsey want to pay any more than they have to.

Hayward has shown enough promise for the team to expect that he'll continue to blossom, particularly in the expanded role he'll see this year. The Jazz reportedly are comfortable with letting him play out the season and coming to the negotiating table next summer with another year of evidence on Hayward's game, but they've already begun talks with him and Favors, and ultimately I think they'll see the wisdom of an extension for both. In Hayward's case, that four year, $40MM extension, perhaps with some incentives built into that total, would probably get it done.

Extension Candidate: Derrick Favors

August 25th, 2013 at 10:31am CST by Chuck Myron

The Jazz invested heavily in Derrick Favors from the very start. The former No. 3 overall pick highlighted the package Utah received from the Nets for star point guard Deron Williams, so if then-GM Kevin O'Connor's surprise gambit at the 2011 trade deadline was going to work, Favors had to deliver. The Jazz have since bumped O'Connor up to executive VP of basketball operations, and he and new GM Dennis Lindsey executed a roster overhaul this summer that will give the team its first look at Favors as a full-time starter. Still, Favors and the Jazz have a major decision to make before the 22-year-old can take his place in the spotlight.

It's poor timing for both team and player that Favors has become eligible for an extension to his rookie-scale contract when he's yet to average as many as 24 minutes per game in any season. Utah doesn't get the chance to see whether Favors can handle being the team's first or second option on offense, and Favors hasn't had the opportunity to show what he can do in a marquee role. The Jazz could have at least afforded themselves a look at Favors as a starter for a couple of months if they had traded either Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap or both at the trade deadline. Yet if they had done that, they probably couldn't have wound up with two future first-round picks, as they did when they used cap space to absorb a couple of Golden State's regrettable contracts this summer. It's another example of the team's strategy of sacrificing the present for the future.

The decision whether to extend Favors will nonetheless have long-term consequences. As Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors explained this week, rookie-scale extensions often turn out to be bargains compared to the deals that restricted free agents get. Favors is likely to get a deal for four or five years either this summer or next, so inflated annual salaries could wind up costing the Jazz for years to come.

O'Connor and Lindsey could propose an extension similar to the four-year, $32MM deal that the Bulls gave Taj Gibson, another player who had primarily come off the bench, but Favors' reps at Perennial Sports & Entertainment would balk at that, since their client has much greater potential. The Favors camp may propose an arrangement closer to the roughly $49MM that Serge Ibaka is getting from the Thunder, but that figure is just as likely to elicit a "no" from the team.

I predicted in March that Favors and the Jazz would strike a deal worth $48MM for four years, and while that seems a little high now, especially since that's the kind of money Larry Sanders just got from the Bucks, I still think it's closer to reality than an extension similar to Gibson's would be. The case of Sanders is somewhat instructive here. He, like Favors, didn't see much playing time in his first two seasons in the league, but he blossomed into a Defensive Player of the Year candidate with starter's minutes last season. It's reasonable to expect that Favors is poised for a breakout, too. He's recorded a PER of 17.3 in his two full seasons with Utah, and in the same timeframe, he's displayed a knack for rebounding, grabbing 11.1 boards per 36 minutes.

The major question mark for Favors is his offense. He shot just 48.3% last season despite the majority of his attempts last season coming at the rim. That's largely because of his putrid 29.0% shooting from three feet and out, as Basketball-Reference shows. That's a mark that will have to get much better if he is to thrive in Utah's beloved pick-and-roll. His shooting percentage ticked up slightly with more a few more minutes and shot attempts per game after the All-Star break, but more drastic improvement is necessary.

There's no such concern on the defensive end of the floor. According to HoopData.com, Favors' blocks, steals and charges drawn per game add up to 2.53, a figure equivalent to the total posted by All-Defensive Second Team selection Paul George, who saw more than 15 extra minutes of playing time per night. Favors used his 7'4" wingspan to block 1.7 shots per game last season, good enough for 13th in the league despite his limited minutes.

So, it's not as if Favors doesn't have an NBA track record. He'll encounter something new this year in Utah, where instead of a contender for a playoff spot, the Jazz are set to field a team that will struggle to win 25 games. Defenses will pack the paint with Favors on the floor, and without much in the way of scoring talent around him, baskets will be hard to come by. Favors may never again play on a team that surrounds him with so little in the way of talent and experience, so this season might not provide the most accurate glimpse of his potential. That's why I think the Jazz and Favors might be best served to do a four-year extension for between $42MM and $44MM. Utah could wind up with a budding defensive stalwart and rebounder extraordinaire on the cheap, while Favors gets an eight-figure salary despite never having averaged 10 points per game. The most significant risk would be on Utah's side, but as the Nuggets showed when they re-signed Nene and quickly swapped his five-year, $65MM deal for JaVale McGee's expiring contract in 2012, there's almost always a team willing to take on a promising big man, no matter the price.

Extension Candidate: Luol Deng

August 23rd, 2013 at 6:21pm CST by Chuck Myron

Luol Deng fits the profile of the rare veteran eligible for a contract extension who might actually sign one. He could be overlooked among the impressive potential class of free agents next summer if he allows his contract to expire, which may make it difficult to secure a long-term deal. Still, he remains a valuable player for the Bulls, the only NBA club he's ever suited up for. Those are conditions that generally favor extension talks, and indeed, Chicago GM Gar Forman says he's begun to discuss an extension for Deng, even though Deng's agent, Herb Rudoy, denies any such conversations have taken place.

The 27-year-old delivers on both ends of the floor, often using his 7-foot wingspan to help him shut down the opposing team's best wing player in Tom Thibodeau's vaunted defense while averaging 16.0 points per game for his career on the other end. He exceeded that mark slightly in 2012/13, when he poured in 16.5 PPG, and added a new wrinkle last season, averaging a career high 3.0 assists per game in the absence of the injured Derrick Rose. He's incorporated the three-pointer into his arsenal since Thibodeau has been his coach, knocking down 35.8% of his 3.1 long-range attempts per game the past three seasons, even though he had an off year from behind the arc in 2012/13.

Last season ended in frightening fashion for Deng, who fell ill and had a spinal tap to test for meningitis. The spinal tap caused a life-threatening infection, knocking him out of the playoffs but thankfully subsiding so he could recover this summer. It was a rare absence from the court for Deng, who not only led the league in minutes per game the past two seasons, but appeared in 89.1% of his team's regular season and playoff games the last four years. Deng has shown durability in the face of taxing minutes and Thibodeau's demanding defensive schemes, and, at 28, he doesn't show signs of slowing down anytime soon.

The South Sudanese native shows up to play, but the emergence of Jimmy Butler last season might have helped fuel Chicago's exploratory talks with the Wizards about swapping Deng for the No. 3 pick and Emeka Okafor. Forman and executive VP of basketball ops John Paxson may also have been influenced by statistics that say the Bulls were better when Deng was off the court last season than when he was on it. Chicago outscored its opponents by 0.9 points when Deng wasn't on the floor, and the team was outscored by 0.2 points when Deng was playing, per NBA.com. Even though Deng played nearly 75% of the 3,966 regular season minutes he possibly could have, that still leaves about 1,000 minutes when he wasn't on the floor, indicating a sample size large enough for study. Of course, the stat isn't infallible — it doesn't account for the other four guys on the floor with him, nor does it factor in the lineups other teams are countering with. Still, it suggests that Deng isn't a linchpin for the team's success. Indeed, the same measurement shows the Bulls were better off without Deng on the floor in 2011/12, too.

Executives around the league have pegged Deng's market value at anywhere between $11MM and $14MM. Deng is entering the final season of a somewhat backloaded six year, $71.06MM contract that he signed under the old collective bargaining agreement. He'd be limited to a five-year deal from the Bulls in free agency under the current CBA, and he can only tack on three extra years via an extension. Just as he couldn't match the length of his current deal, he'd also be hard-pressed to equal his $14.215MM salary for this season. Productive players in their prime don't often take significant paycuts, so that might drive Rudoy and Deng away from the bargaining table in hopes that Deng can land a deal worth closer to $14MM than $11MM in free agency.

Chicago's willingness to entertain the idea of trading Deng for a package headlined by the No. 3 pick in a weak draft may show that the team isn't going to consent to an extension for Deng unless it involves a hefty reduction in salary. News of extension talks came out a day after the trade rumor, which might simply mean the Bulls are trying to offer an olive branch to a long-tenured part of their team. Weeks later, Forman said conversations about an extension were continuing, perhaps with the Bulls hoping that Deng would become anxious and accept the guarantee of long-term money rather than play out the season and risk serious injury or a decline in performance. That doesn't seem likely in this case, given Deng's track record of durability, as well as his consistency. Some of the trappings of what makes veteran extensions happen are there with Deng and the Bulls, but I don't think they're enough for a deal.

Extension Candidate: Greg Monroe

August 22nd, 2013 at 11:54am CST by Luke Adams

The Pistons' signing of Josh Smith to a four-year, $54MM contract last month raised plenty of eyebrows around the NBA, not necessarily because of the years or dollars, though Smith's $13.5MM annual salary will be the highest among this summer's free agents not named Chris Paul or Dwight Howard. Rather, it's Smith's fit with the Pistons that had many observers questioning the deal.

Detroit didn't exactly have a successful 2012/13 season, but one of the team's bright spots was its frontcourt, where its most productive player, power forward Greg Monroe, paired with up-and-coming rookie center Andre Drummond. The Pistons are unlikely to increase Drummond's workload too significantly from the 20.7 MPG he averaged in his first year, so there should be plenty of minutes to go around in 2013/14 for the club's top three big men, but the long-term outlook is unclear.

With Smith under contract through 2017, and Drummond under team control through at least 2016, Monroe appears to be the odd man out. Despite being the Pistons' leader in minutes, points, rebounds, and plenty of other categories this past season, Monroe's place among the club's core looks more tenuous than Smith's or Drummond's, given his contract situation. Entering the final year of his rookie-scale deal, the 23-year-old is extension-eligible this offseason, and could hit restricted free agency next summer.

Earlier this week, when I discussed rookie-scale extensions and restricted free agency, I surmised that teams were becoming more likely to lock up their rising stars prior to the free agent period. From the club's perspective, it might mean saving a few million dollars, which could come in handy down the road, given the league's restrictive CBA. From the player's perspective, it means landing a massive payday prior to hitting free agency, reducing concern about suffering a serious injury or a dip in production in that fourth year.

For Monroe and the Pistons though, an extension may not be in the cards this offseason. Grantland's Zach Lowe reported in July that teams who inquired on Monroe's availability around the time of the 2013 draft were given a flat "no" by Detroit. However, that didn't stop Lowe from suggesting a couple weeks later that Monroe could be shopped at some point this season if the club "falls in love" with a Smith/Drummond frontcourt. According to the Grantland scribe, the Pistons aren't overly enthusiastic about signing Monroe to a maximum-salary extension.

Even if the Pistons were interesting in locking up Monroe, agent David Falk didn't sound too into the idea when he discussed it with Vincent Goodwill of the Detroit News earlier this year.

"Greg isn't gonna go backwards between his third and fourth year," Falk said. "I don't think I've ever done an extension after a third year. In the '90s you maxed out a guy after his second, but the [CBA] rules are different now.… What incentive does a player have to do an extension after his third year? For me personally, it's difficult to do that…. The structure of the CBA, for me, I can't speak for others, I question why that makes sense."

Falk isn't just posturing; he also represents Pacers big man Roy Hibbert, who was offered a lucrative extension by Indiana a year before his free agency. Hibbert ultimately waited and landed a max offer sheet from the Blazers, which the Pacers matched. Assuming Monroe continues to develop and improve, it's reasonable to think he'd also receive a max offer in 2014, or something very close to it, given the bidding we've seen on free agent bigs in recent years.

Of course, even though neither the player nor the team seems all that inclined to work out an extension agreement at this point, that doesn't mean the two sides won't talk before the October 31st deadline. For the Pistons, locking up Monroe to a long-term extension in the neighborhood of Serge Ibaka's pact with the Thunder (four years, $50MM) would be a nice value play. That sort of deal wouldn't necessarily tie them to Monroe for the long-term, since it'd be a movable contract — the club could theoretically extend him, then trade him a little later, like the Nuggets did with Nene.

As for Monroe, it's possible his views aren't entirely aligned with his agent's. Although Falk would prefer to wait for free agency, Monroe may want to play it safe and ink a new deal this fall while his stock is high, even if he'd risk losing out on a few million dollars by doing so.

Ultimately, between the Pistons' addition of Smith and Falk's aversion to non-max extensions, the the odds of a new deal for Monroe this offseason probably aren't great. My guess is that the former seventh overall pick opts for free agency instead, in which case he'll represent a tantalizing target next summer for teams with cap space who miss out on top-tier options like LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.

Extension Candidate: Paul George

August 17th, 2013 at 4:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

It's not often that a player somewhat unexpectedly joins the ranks of the superstars, but that might just have happened with Paul George this past season. The former 10th overall pick from Fresno State stepped into Indiana's spotlight with Danny Granger injured, and transformed from a 12.1 points-per-game scorer who played slightly less than 30 minutes a night into an All-Star, a third-team All-NBA selection, and a second-team All-Defensive player. He backed it up when he took the team a round farther in the playoffs than it had been with Granger as the No. 1 option the year before, challenging LeBron James nose-to-nose in seven stirring games.

The question that remains is just how George's emergence changes Pacers president Larry Bird's long-range plans for the team. Bird sat out this past season, turning the club over to venerable executive Donnie Walsh, but Larry Legend has returned to a small-market team with an unusual wealth of talent. Bird and GM Kevin Pritchard kept a key piece of that talent around with a new three-year deal for David West, and made necessary upgrades to the bench with the signings of Chris Copeland and C.J. Watson and the trade for Luis Scola. Either Granger or Lance Stephenson will join that second unit next season, further strengthening what had been the team's major weakness in 2012/13.

All of the team's major moves this summer look like winners, but it's the last big decision of the offseason that could have the greatest long-term impact on the franchise. Comparative value would dictate a five-year, maximum salary extension for George after the Wizards handed out such a deal to John Wall last month. Even though George has only played at his current level for one season, he seems at least as deserving of a max deal as Wall, who showed his brilliance only in stretches during an injury-shortened 2012/13 campaign. The idea that Wall could win the MVP this season, triggering a higher maximum salary via the Derrick Rose Rule, is generally dismissed as unattainable. Yet nearly 40% of Hoops Rumors readers voted in June to indicate their belief that George will someday win the MVP award.

Wall's extension was done by the end of July, after Wizards owner Ted Leonsis made it clear early in the process that Wall was a priority. Blake Griffin's max extension last summer came together just as the negotiating period began. James Harden signed his max extension with the Rockets two days after they acquired him from the Thunder. The Pacers have left George hanging to some degree, forcing him to bat down speculation that he'll sign with his hometown Lakers in free agency. It's clear that George wants to remain with the Pacers, and Bird would obviously like to see him in Indiana long-term, saying last month on radio that the team is prepared to make Paul a "major offer." A "major offer" doesn't necessarily add up to the max, and George indicated in June that he thought of himself as a max player, so perhaps there is a financial gulf between the Pacers and Aaron Mintz, George's agent.

I predicted back in June that George would wind up with a four-year, $50MM extension, and that was based on the notion that the Pacers would hesitate to do the max. That would add up to about $10MM less than the max over the course of the deal, and roughly $25MM less than a five-year max extension would entail. The savings could allow the Pacers a chance to re-sign Granger, who'll be a free agent next summer, without going into the tax. Of course, Mintz and George could reject such an offer and wait until George becomes a restricted free agent in 2014, when he'd be free to sign an offer sheet with another team. It seems reasonable to expect that some team would float a max offer George's way in that scenario, barring a major regression this coming season, leaving the Pacers to either match and reduce their flexibility with other players, or watch their young superstar walk away.

It could be that Bird is content to go all in on this year, let Granger go after this season, and sign a cheaper replacement in the summer of 2014 to accommodate a max deal for George. In that scenario, it would behoove George to get a deal done this summer, giving him the opportunity to make another All-NBA team — or win the MVP — and trigger the Rose rule, which would afford him a more lucrative contract than the Pacers or anyone could give him next year. Bird and the Pacers, then, would be the ones preferring to wait past the extension deadline so they can avoid the possibility of getting stuck with a more expensive max deal for George.

The idea that George could hit the open market next year, even as a restricted free agent, merely adds to the intrigue already surrounding the summer of 2014. Bird was never short on confidence as a player, so I'm sure he'd be willing to let George hit free agency and take his chances on re-signing him to a team-friendly deal. Similarly, I'm sure Mintz would relish the opportunity to hock a young superstar to the highest bidder. Ultimately, the decision may come down to George, a 23-year-old with a short track record of success. He could be willing to compromise and take less money as a hedge against a decline in performance. He may be ready to get into a staredown with Bird and put pressure on the Pacers to equal the deal that the Wizards gave Wall. George's financial future, and that of the team he wants to stay with for years to come, is at stake.

Extension Candidate Series

August 15th, 2013 at 8:54am CST by Luke Adams

When Nikola Pekovic re-upped with the Timberwolves yesterday, he became the last of the summer’s big free agents to come off the board. As such, the next few big names to sign contracts may not be players on the open market, but rather players signing extensions with their current teams. Players heading into the fourth and final seasons of their rookie contracts are eligible to sign extensions, as are a number of veterans. We’ll be taking a look at some of those guys in Extension Candidate pieces.

This list of our Extension Candidate posts can be found at any time under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar. It will continue to be updated as we examine players that might be in for long-term deals in the near future. Here are the extension candidates we’ve previewed so far, in alpabetical order:

Eric Bledsoe (Suns)
Andrew Bogut (Warriors)
Avery Bradley (Celtics)
Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
DeMarcus Cousins (Kings)
Luol Deng (Bulls)
Derrick Favors (Jazz)
Rudy Gay (Raptors)
Paul George (Pacers)
Gordon Hayward (Jazz)
Greg Monroe (Pistons)
Larry Sanders (Bucks)
Greivis Vasquez (Kings)

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Extension Candidate

Extension Candidate: Larry Sanders

August 11th, 2013 at 12:01pm CST by Chuck Myron

The Bucks and Larry Sanders are in the final stages of negotiations on a long-term extension, one that reportedly is likely to pay the center more than $10MM a year. That's heady territory for a player who's only once averaged more than 14.5 minutes per game. Sanders has never scored as much as 10 points per game in any season either, but he's made it clear that he's a game-changer on the defensive end. Bucks GM John Hammond seems prepared to make the judgment that Sanders' defensive contributions far outweigh whatever shortcomings he has on offense.

Milwaukee outscored its opponents by 1.9 points per 100 possessions last season with Sanders on the floor, but the Bucks as a whole were minus 1.4 points in that category. Similarly, the Bucks gave up just 98.8 points per 100 possessions with Sanders in the lineup, a rate that would have been the third-best in the league if Milwaukee's subs had kept it up when Sanders went to the bench. Alas, the Bucks gave up 102.3 points per possession as a team, demonstrating a significant drop-off when Sanders, with his nearly 7'6" wingspan, wasn't protecting the middle. That meant the Bucks were just 12th in that category.

The Bucks were worse offensively, ranking 20th in points per 100 possessions, even with a stockpile of players proficient at either shooting or getting to the hoop, like Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis, Ersan Ilyasova, Mike Dunleavy and, for the second half of the season, J.J. Redick. Sanders wasn't a complete offensive liability last season, and he showed improvement, averaging 9.8 PPG on 50.6% shooting after notching 3.6 PPG and 45.7% shooting the year before. He became a more effective finisher at the rim, where nearly two-thirds of his field goal attempts came from, according to Basketball-Reference. He shot 63.3% from point-blank range last season, better than his 58.6% shooting on such attempts in 2011/12. The problems show up on shots between three and 10 feet away from the basket, where he connected on a woeful 29.7% of his 111 attempts last year. That demonstrates a lack of an ability to score from the block.

The former 15th pick out of VCU is an effective rebounder, averaging 9.5 per game last season, more than three times the amount he grabbed in about half as many minutes in 2011/12. Still, he's not as effective on the boards as perhaps he could be, and if he improves on an offensive rebounding percentage that ranked 16th in the league last season, he could boost his scoring average with increased tip-in opportunities.

Sanders finished third in Defensive Player of the Year voting, and there are similarities between him and Serge Ibaka, who narrowly missed out on Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2011/12, the season before the Thunder rewarded him with a four-year, $49.4MM extension. Ibaka plays power forward on a contending team while Sanders is the center on a club that finished below .500 last year, but both have taken massive strides since entering the league, prompting excitement over just how much better they can become. Ibaka developed a mid-range shot after receiving the extension, helping the Thunder offset the scoring they lost in the James Harden trade. With Jennings, Ellis, Redick and Dunleavy all gone from Milwaukee, the Bucks may hold out hope that Sanders can similarly expand his offensive game.

Sanders averaged 2.8 blocks per game last season, third-best in the NBA, but nearly a block a game fewer than Ibaka had the year before he signed his extension. Still, opposing players quickly caught on to Sanders' basket protection and simply stayed out of the lane, as evidenced by the drop in his blocks per game from 3.2 before the All-Star break to 2.3 after.

The market for centers has long been inflated, even if some evidence from this summer shows front offices don't always pay for size. Sanders recently hired agent Dan Fegan, notorious for his representation of Dwight Howard, and Fegan will no doubt point to the four-year, $44MM contract the Nuggets gave JaVale McGee based largely on McGee's potential. McGee's per-36-minute scoring and rebounding numbers from the year before he signed his lucrative deal far outpace Sanders' production in those categories from this past season, but it's clear that Sanders possesses a far more nuanced understanding of the game.

Sanders seems destined for a deal worth between McGee's $11MM salary and Ibaka's more than $12MM+ annual pay. The question may lie in whether the Bucks will give him a four-year deal or lock him up for five seasons. Teams can only sign one player coming off a rookie-scale extension to a five-year deal, and it doesn't seem like there are any others on the Bucks roster who'll be worthy candidates when they're eligible in a few years. The Bucks figure to be a lottery team this year, and they could net a talented player in the rich crop of 2014 draft talent. Yet, with Milwaukee owner Herb Kohl in favor of fielding competitive teams rather than stripping the roster and angling for better lottery position, it could be a long time before the Bucks have another player on a rookie deal with Sanders' potential. If Hammond and company are believers in that potential, Sanders could be a major obstacle in front of Milwaukee's basket for years to come.

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