Free Agent Stock Watch: Lou Amundson
Seventeen days have gone by since agent Mark Bartelstein said Lou Amundson would strike a deal within the week, and the veteran power forward remains unsigned. Amundson has one more week left before NBA training camps start, and it's beginning to look like he'll still be looking for work when the balls start bouncing.
The 30-year-old has never wowed with his ability in seven seasons after going undrafted out of UNLV. He's only once signed for more than the minimum salary, landing a two year, $4.6MM deal from the Warriors in 2010 after averaging career highs of 4.7 points and 4.4 rebounds per game for a Suns team that went to the Western Conference Finals. He's nonetheless maintained a consistent presence on NBA rosters, appearing in 327 games while making just seven starts in his career.
Amundson's shooting percentage has declined in each of the past four seasons, hitting an ugly 39.5% last year, when he split the season between the Timberwolves, Bulls and Pelicans. He has a better impact on the defensive end. During the three years in which Amundson saw his greatest amounts of minutes per contest, his Suns and Warriors teams were better defensively with him on the floor in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. That's somewhat misleading, since the opposite was true in 2011/12, the only other season he averaged at least 10 minutes a night. That year he was with the Pacers, a better defensive squad than the high-scoring outfits he'd been a part of in Phoenix and Golden State. It suggests Amundson is an average interior defender, which isn't necessarily unappealing if he's on the fringes of the rotation, as he has been the past couple of seasons.
The 6'9" Amundson has always been proficient on the boards, notching 10.1 rebounds per 36 minutes for his career. His 17.0% rebounding percentage would have put him fourth on the list of the top rebounders still available that Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors put together in early August if he'd averaged enough minutes last season to qualify. Such board work hasn't resulted in NBA jobs for Hamed Haddadi, Johan Petro or Lamar Odom, the three guys on the list who would have been ahead of Amundson, so it's certainly no harbinger of an NBA deal.
The Lakers and Clippers met with Amundson last month, the latest among a sizable group of teams reported to have had interest in him at some point this summer, one that includes the Knicks, Heat, Kings, Mavericks, Hawks, and Pacers. Many of those clubs also pursued Greg Oden, and it seemed then as though they considered Amundson as Plan B. Oden signed a fully guaranteed minimum-salary contract, an arrangement that was less player-friendly than the two-year deal with a player option that he initially agreed to. Perhaps Oden's concession drove down the price for Amundson, who might not be so willing to make a sacrifice of his own, though that's just my speculation.
Amundson signed a guaranteed minimum-salary pact with the Wolves last year, but I'd be surprised to see him do that this time around. He's probably looking at no better than a partial guarantee, if he gets a guarantee at all. Many jobs with overseas teams have been snapped up, but the international market is probably more favorable for Amundson now than it would be in another month or so if he found himself on the chopping block after opting to go to an NBA training camp on a non-guaranteed deal. His best bet is probably signing overseas, and while the idea of opening the season out of the NBA for the first time since 2007 might not appeal to him, it doesn't mean his career in the Association is over. If Amundson can ink a deal with an NBA out or in China, where the season ends early, he could find his way stateside again later in the season, perhaps on what would be the sixth 10-day contract of his career.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Delonte West
NBA teams sometimes deem a player untouchable after off-the-court issues make them a risk for any guaranteed contract. Even serious injury problems won't scare teams as much as when players are considered locker-room problems; the Cavs signed Andrew Bynum to a deal where only $6MM of his $12MM contract this year is guaranteed, with a team option for $12.5MM in 2014/15.
But the trend away from troubled players is never more evident than with former Celtics and Cavaliers guard Delonte West. West hasn't appeard on an NBA court since the 2011/12 season when he averaged 9.6 PPG, 3.2 APG and 1.3 SPG in a shade over 24 minutes a night for the Mavs. The 6'4" guard out of St. Joseph's University shot over 46 percent from the field and better than 35 percent from beyond the arc in his last season with a hungover championship team in Dallas.
But West's troubled behavior during his time in training camp last fall led the Mavs to cut him. West signed with the Development League's Texas Legends, but was tardy in reporting and only played in eight games for the team while averaging 10.4 points and 4.4 assists.
West turned 30 years old in July and after the Knicks and Grizzlies expressed interest earlier in the summer, the Knicks' interest waned. Despite the advocacy of Grizzlies guard Tony Allen, nary a whiff has been rumored about West even after he said he was open to a non-guaranteed deal.
The lack of interest is a little peculair considering the positive reactions to his play at Tim Grgurich's camp in Las Vegas in mid-August. But West's mental health struggles — he suffers from bipolar disorder — and his run-ins with the law over the years have scared teams off.
It's worth noting that Delonte's play on the court has never been the problem. He's shot slightly above league average from 3-point range over his eight-year career (37.2%), and he's averaged over 30 minutes a night for multiple playoff teams and title contenders, like the late 2000s Cavs. He plays hard defense and is an unselfish player who can be a contributor off the bench or as an interim starter.
Plenty of teams need help in the backcourt, but there are a lot of available guards still left on the market, including Richard Hamilton, whose free agent stock Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors assessed last week. But while most of the guards available may fall short of the experience and numbers West can bring to the table, the lack of interest from teams this summer leads one to believe teams are wary of West's issues off a basketball court.
Since the rumored interest by the Knicks, they've re-signed Pablo Prigioni and signed Beno Udrih to backup Raymond Felton. The Grizzlies were West's other potential suitor earlier in the summer, but they've already signed Nick Calathes to a two-year deal worth less than $2MM. While Calathes is talented, the Grizzlies still might want to bring West in to take a closer look during training camp.
Unfortunately, after so many issues completely unrelated to basketball still surrounding West, the talented guard is hovering in absentia after already missing the entirety of the 2012/13 season. If a team does take a chance on him and invites him to training camp, it'll likely they're trying to get a feel for how he meshes with the rigors of NBA life again.
A contender with a strong front office and an experienced coach is the sort of team that seems likely to take a chance on West sometime during the season if he doesn't catch on before training camp. But West's repeated chances to stay in the NBA are slowly dwindling.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Richard Hamilton
The Bulls were a taxpaying team for the first time in 2012/13, and appear set to pay an even bigger bill in '13/14. However, that doesn't mean the club isn't still trying to cut costs where it can. Like the Lakers with Metta World Peace and the Heat with Mike Miller, the Bulls released a rotation player this summer to reduce team salary, parting ways with Richard Hamilton.
Unlike World Peace and Miller, Hamilton wasn't amnestied, but was on a partially guaranteed contract, so Chicago will only have to pay him $1MM of his $5MM salary. That salary may also be stretched over three years, with Hamilton receiving about $333K in each of the next three seasons. The reduction in his 2013/14 salary likely means the veteran guard will be a little more motivated to secure a new contract — in fact, we heard back in July that Hamilton isn't considering retirement, and is hoping for a bounce-back season in the right situation.
Hamilton, who signed a three-year, $15MM deal with Chicago after the 2011 lockout ended, had a disappointing stint with the Bulls, struggling with injuries and seeing his production slide when he was on the court. In 78 contests over two seasons with the club, the 35-year-old averaged 10.5 PPG and had a shooting line of .438/.337/.833, all down from his career rates.
Still, while those may have been underwhelming numbers for a player earning mid-level money, they're still solid enough to earn him a spot on an NBA bench. The former seventh overall pick was expected to be a starter in Chicago, coming off the bench just five times in his 78 games with the team. But virtually every NBA team has an idea of what its starting lineup will be at this point in the offseason, so if Hamilton catches on with a club now, he'd almost certainly be looking at a role as an eighth or ninth man, at best.
In that role, and at a discount price – perhaps the veteran minimum – Hamilton should still be an effective roster piece, providing a scoring punch for a team's second unit. Even in his last two years in Chicago, Hamilton averaged about 23 minutes in the games he played, so a reduction in his playing time to 15-20 MPG could help him stay fresher and healthier, warding off potential injuries.
We heard earlier this week that the Rockets and Knicks may have some interest in Hamilton, and it's not hard to imagine him fitting in on a few other contenders as well. The Thunder, for instance, appear likely to cut DeAndre Liggins, and could view Hamilton as a poor man's Kevin Martin. If OKC were to sign him to a one-year minimum-salary deal, the team would only be on the hook for about $884K of his $1.4MM salary.
Hamilton says he isn't ready to retire, and his numbers with the Bulls, while not quite as solid as the team may have hoped, suggest he's still got something in the tank. We're only about a month away from the start of the NBA preseason, so there's no guarantee the UConn product will be in camp with a club by then, but I'd be pretty shocked if he doesn't play NBA minutes at some point during the 2013/14 season.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Earl Barron
One of the remaining free agents that has drawn interest lately is Earl Barron, who appeared in 11 games for the Wizards and one for the Knicks last season. As we noted yesterday, the 7'0" center has drawn interest from the Pacers, Pelicans, 76ers, and is still under consideration for a return to New York. Barron displayed a few standout performances in 2012/13, including an eight point, eight rebound (four offensive) effort in 16 minutes of action against the Cavaliers, a four-point, four-block, and 14 rebound line over 26 minutes in Atlanta, and 11 points along with 18 rebounds in 35 minutes during New York's final game of the season against the Hawks.
One thing worth paying attention to is the ability he's shown to rebound the basketball at a high-rate, as the 18-rebound performance in April was somewhat reminiscent of Barron's last stint with the Knicks in 2009/10, when he averaged 11.0 RPG along with 11.7 PPG over the last seven games of that season. Although Barron's field goal percentage (35.7%) isn't much to look at, it's arguable that 12 games isn't much of a sample size to work with. Based on his shot charts over the course of several seasons, it appears that he's not shy about taking jumpers from mid-range, and coupled with his rebounding ability, Barron could be an option worth keeping around as insurance in the frontcourt.
With teams looking to fill out roster spots and/or hand out training camp invites at this point, it wouldn't be surprising either way if Barron was offered a guaranteed contract for the minimum or the opportunity to earn a roster spot in the fall on a non-guaranteed deal. Even if he can't make a team before the start of the regular season, he'll certainly be worth keeping an eye throughout the year in case teams find the need to add more depth at center.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Antawn Jamison
With all the big-money free agents off the board, and most of the mid-level types scooped up as well, HoopsHype.com currently ranks Antawn Jamison as the best option still available. While there are plenty of candidates among the remaining free agents to have better 2013/14 seasons than Jamison, it's hard to argue that any other unsigned player matches his combination of talent and track record. As such, it's worth trying to figure out where the veteran forward may land.
A year ago, when Jamison hit unrestricted free agency following the expiration of a four-year, $50MM contract, his top priority was contending for a championship. At the time, his decision to sign a minimum-salary deal with the Lakers looked like a good way to pursue that title, but the season clearly didn't work out how Jamison or the team planned.
Before he signed in Los Angeles, Jamison was courted by a number of teams, including his hometown Bobcats, who were reportedly willing to offer more money and perhaps more years than the Lakers. Charlotte didn't show the same type of interest in Jamison this time around, but after a frustrating year in L.A., the 37-year-old will no doubt keep last summer's free agency in mind. That may be why he hasn't rushed into a situation that looks great on paper, preferring instead to take his time to figure out the best possible fit.
It's possible that best fit could come with L.A.'s other team, but the Clippers have reportedly told Jamison that they're waiting on Lamar Odom, who is the club's preferred choice. In any case, the Clips would only be able to offer Jamison the veteran's minimum, and it's not clear if he'll have to settle for that amount again. Although Jamison's production took a significant hit last year, that dip can be attributed in part to a non-optimal role with the Lakers. The former fourth overall pick still posted solid offensive numbers, including 9.4 PPG, a .464 FG%, and a 15.3 PER.
As I observed when I recapped how teams have used their mid-level exceptions so far this offseason, plenty of clubs still have money to spend. Contenders like the Thunder, Rockets, Grizzlies, Heat, Pacers, and Pistons could all offer Jamison more than the minimum salary, and a few of those clubs may be in need of some frontcourt depth. If Jamison is willing to play for the minimum again if it means competing for a championship, that opens up a few more doors, including the Clippers.
Jamison has suggested that he wants to play two more seasons before retiring, but he's probably unlikely to land a guaranteed two-year deal this summer. If he signs a minimum-salary contract, perhaps it could include a second-year player option, whereas a deal larger than the minimum could potentially include a non-guaranteed second-year (essentially a team option).
Still, I think the most likely scenario for Jamison is that he signs for the minimum with a contender like the Clippers or the Thunder. He's never been a particularly strong defender, but the UNC product can still contribute enough on offense that he could be a good value for a playoff team in need of one more scoring option off the bench.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Nate Robinson
Nate Robinson never looked more valuable than he did this spring, when Chicago's third-string point guard took over the starting role and lifted the team to a Game Seven win on the road in Brooklyn. Robinson and the Bulls followed that up with a strong challenge of the Heat in the conference semifinals. His trademark inconsistency still surfaced, as witnessed by his performance in a pair of Game Fours. In the fourth game against the Nets, he scored 34 points, but he went scoreless on 12 field goal attempts in the fourth game versus the Heat. Yet the "Good Nate" mostly outweighed the "Bad Nate" during the playoffs, especially as he showed an ability to fit in with coach Tom Thibodeau's defense. That should be enough to merit a healthy raise on his minimum-salary deal, and that means he'll probably be out of Chicago's price range.
Robinson was a break-even player during the regular season, as the Bulls scored just about as many points with him on the floor as they gave up. That's what many teams look for out of their backups, so Robinson has probably earned a shot in a team's rotation next season, a job that normally warrants more than the minimum salary. Robinson appeared in every one of the Bulls' regular season and playoff games this year, and shot 40.5% from behind the arc, the first time he's eclipsed a 40% rate of success on three-point attempts. He embraced a playmaking role, as he did in Golden State last year, posting a respectable 4.4/1.8 per-game assists-to-turnover ratio with the Bulls. His strides on defense, where he became less of a liability, and his ability to accept Thibodeau's hard-charging coaching style, were even more impressive.
The Bulls have Robinson's Non-Bird rights, so unless they dip into their mid-level exception, the most they can pay him next season is $1,519,172, an amount equal to 120% of the minimum salary for a player with eight years of experience. Chicago is in line to pay the tax again next season, so the team's only method of signing other teams' free agents for more than the minimum will likely be the $3.183MM taxpayer's mid-level exception. Robinson's market value is probably right around that amount, so using the mid-level on him wouldn't allow Chicago to upgrade elsewhere. Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich will presumably be back to man the point guard position, and the team probably wants to give Marquis Teague, its first-rounder from 2012, a longer look next season. That doesn't leave much room for Robinson.
Robinson's agent, Aaron Goodwin, says his client's first priority is to re-sign with the Bulls, but he'd be open to hearing from the Knicks as well. The Knicks might like to inject a boost of athleticism into their point guard ranks, but they're under the same salary crunch as the Bulls. New York's bloated payroll would make the mid-level exception the team's only mechanism for signing Robinson, and the Knicks may have to use it to keep some of their own free agents. A sign-and-trade is out, since taxpaying teams can't acquire players in a sign-and-trade under new collective barganing agreement restrictions this summer.
The taxpayer's mid-level amount is probably a fit for Robinson, but he's most likely to end up on a team with fewer financial headaches than the Knicks. He could also work on a club that can use part of its standard $5.15MM mid-level on him. He showed his value to contenders this past season, and winning teams probably won't shy away from him as much as they did when he was a forgotten man in 2010/11 with the Thunder, who waived him on the eve of the following season. He's still a spark plug offensively, capable of the spectacular, and after this year, a team's primary worry would be his off-nights on that end, as opposed to his defense. I expect a contending team with plenty of other offensive weapons that can offset his shortcomings to bring Robinson aboard.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Jarrett Jack
It's not often that a player who makes the fewest starts since his rookie season and sees his scoring average decline nearly three points from the year before emerges as a hot commodity. Yet that's the spot Jarrett Jack finds himself in as he hits free agency. Jack was a superb sixth man this season for a Warriors team that won a playoff series, giving the eight-year veteran his first glimpse of the postseason beyond the opening round. He was frequently the No. 1 option on offense down the stretch, while the "greatest shooting backcourt in the history of the game," as Mark Jackson proclaimed Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, deferred to Jack's ability to create off the dribble.
Jack's scored 12.9 points per game this year, off from his career high of 15.6 in 2011/12 with New Orleans. Perhaps picking up some tips from the shooters around him, or benefitting from the same conditions that allowed them to thrive, Jack displayed some of his best touch from beyond the three-point arc, knocking in 40.4% of his attempts. He exceled as a distributor as well, averaging 5.6 assists against 2.0 turnovers per game. The Warriors gave up slightly more points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor, according to NBA.com, but his net effect was positive. The Warriors outscored opponents by 1.7 points per 100 possessions as a whole this season, and by 2.2 points with Jack in the game.
The 22nd overall pick in the 2005 draft, Jack made $5.4MM this season, the last of a four-year, $20MM contract. He reportedly had a chance to extend that deal with the W's this season, but shut down talks with the team in the middle of the season. With the exception of players on rookie-scale contracts, an extension usually isn't in a player's best interest. Jack would have been limited to a 7.5% raise on his salary from this season and three additional years. That would have been a total package worth $18.63MM, a sum of guaranteed money that most bench players don't see. It's not clear whether the Warriors were prepared to go that high in the extension. If they did so, Jack's $5.805MM salary for next season would likely put them in danger of going over the tax apron.
Without Jack, and assuming Carl Landry opts out of his deal while Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson and Brandon Rush all opt into theirs, the Warriors would be committed to $69,020,402 for 10 players next season. It's not certain exactly where the tax threshold, at $70.307MM this year, will be set for 2013/14, but in any case, the Warriors seem destined become a taxpayer unless they make a major move. Crossing the tax apron, which will be $4MM above wherever the tax line is set, would limit the team's flexbility, chopping about $2MM from its mid-level exception and placing a restriction on Golden State's ability to acquire players via sign-and-trade.
That likely makes Jack and Landry an either-or proposition for Golden State, as Tim Kawakami of the Bay Area News Group wrote last week. Kawakami figures the Warriors will choose Jack, and while that seems logical, I'm not sure they'll be able to afford him unless they either dump other salaries or are prepared to cross the tax apron. Even if he re-signed for his $5.4MM salary from last season, Jack would be tough to squeeze back onto the payroll. The 29-year-old was adamant last month that he'll prioritize a return to the Warriors next season, even if it means giving up the opportunity to start elsewhere.
Jack had an expanded role in the playoffs, becoming his team's second leading scorer, at 17.2 points per game, and drawing four starts in place of an injured David Lee. Even if he doesn't sign with a team that wants to make him a starter, he should at least be in line for a slight bump up in pay. He was one of the top sixth men in the league this year, and teams with cap space probably wouldn't hesitate to pay him $6MM a year. That may be too much for Jack to pass up, as much as he enjoyed his year as a Warrior.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Timofey Mozgov
A year ago, Omer Asik was coming off two seasons in Chicago in which he averaged 2.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, a .529 FG%, and a 12.6 PER in 13.2 minutes per game. Despite the pedesterian numbers, Asik was considered a big man with upside, and earned a three-year, $25MM contract from the Rockets. He lived up to that $8.3MM annual salary in his first season in Houston, starting all 82 games and averaging a double-double.
Timofey Mozgov isn't exactly the same type of player as Asik, but there are certainly plenty of similarities between the two bigs. Mozgov was considered a crucial piece in the blockbuster trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to New York two seasons ago, but with JaVale McGee and Kosta Koufos ahead of him in the Nuggets' rotation, Mozgov hasn't seen a whole lot of playing time over the last two years. Since the start of the 2011/12 season, Mozgov's averages look similar to Asik's in Chicago: 4.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, a .520 FG%, and a 12.9 PER in 12.3 MPG.
Like Asik a year ago, Mozgov will be eligible for restricted free agency this summer. While it was a no-brainer for the Bulls to extend a qualifying offer to Asik to ensure they could match rival offers (even though the team ultimately decided not to match Houston's offer), that's not necessarily the case for the Nuggets and Mozgov. At least one report has suggested Mozgov will receive a qualifying offer from Denver, but that was met with some skepticism from at least one reporter, and it's not hard to see why.
Assuming Andre Iguodala opts out of his 2013/14 contract in search of a long-term deal, the Nuggets will still have approximately $52MM in guaranteed money on their books before attempting to negotiate new contracts for Iguodala and Corey Brewer. If the team hopes to bring back both players, or even just Iguodala, it's unclear if Mozgov's $3.93MM qualifying offer will be an affordable expense for a team that figures to steer clear of the luxury tax.
Still, the Nuggets have shown they're willing to pay big bucks to a player who essentially amounts to a backup center (McGee). Perhaps the risk of Mogov accepting that $3.93MM qualifying offer will be outweighed by the desire to keep a valuable asset under team control. After all, based on the amount of interest reported in Mozgov at the trade deadline, it seems there will be plenty of suitors for the big man, both this summer and perhaps in a trade at next year's deadline.
The list of potential suitors for Mozgov figures to include his old team, as the Knicks' interest was reported both before and after the trade deadline. The Timberwolves also reportedly made a play for Mozgov, with the Bobcats and Heat making inquiries as well. Not all of those clubs will be able to make big offers for the Russian this summer — New York and Miami, for instance, will both be taxpayers, meaning the mini mid-level exception (up to three years and $9.98MM) will be the most they can offer, and that's assuming they make Mozgov their top free agent priority, which may be unlikely.
For a team like the Bobcats though, pursuing a player such as Mozgov would make a lot of sense. Charlotte has plenty of cap space at its disposal, but is unlikely to be in the mix for any premier free agents, based on the team's record and history. So why not make a play for a young big man with upside like Mozgov? The bidding for the Nuggets center probably won't reach Asik territory, meaning an offer like the one the Hornets gave Robin Lopez last season (three years, $15.36MM) might be enough to get something done, and avoid the Nuggets matching. In that scenario, Mozgov would get some long-term security and a nice payday, while the Bobcats (or a similar lottery-bound team with cap room) would get the chance to roll the dice on a player who could thrive with more playing time. And at that price, the contract wouldn't become too toxic an asset even if Mozgov struggled.
It's hard to get a strong read on Mozgov's free agent value, given how little we've seen of him on the court in the NBA. I don't expect him to be quite the prize that Asik was last year, but if Mozgov receives an offer that seems disproportionate to his career production, we shouldn't be surprised. The 26-year-old didn't get a real chance to shine in Denver, but a player with his combination of size and promise won't go unnoticed on the open market.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Greg Oden
Typically, when we examine a free agent's value, as we have for a number of players in our Free Agent Stock Watch series so far, we'll make an educated guess about his next contract based on his performance heading into free agency. So when a player hasn't actually seen NBA action in nearly three and a half years, evaluating his recent on-court production becomes a little trickier.
That's the case for Greg Oden, 2007's first overall pick, who hasn't appeared in an NBA game since December 2009. A layoff that extensive generally means we won't ever be seeing the player in an NBA uniform again, particularly when his absence from the Association is due to injuries rather than, for instance, playing overseas. But Oden is still only 25 years old, and has his sights set on a return to the NBA for the 2013/14 season.
Given Oden's history of knee problems, his health has to be the first factor taken into account when we consider whether he'll even land a contract this summer. Having undergone multiple microfracture surgeries on his knees, Oden is still working his way back into playing shape. If he can't get healthy, an NBA comeback will be impossible, but for our purposes, let's assume (and hope) his rehab continues to progress well, without any setbacks.
Despite being out of the league for years, a healthy Oden would still likely draw plenty of interest around the league. Even this season, as rumors swirled that Oden was considering signing immediately in order to rehab with NBA team doctors, we heard plenty of clubs linked to the 25-year-old. The Heat, Cavaliers, Spurs, Bobcats, Mavericks, and Celtics were among the teams rumored to be kicking the tires.
That amount of interest seems to suggest that Oden wouldn't necessarily have to settle for a minimum-salary contract if he's healthy. In fact, his decision to wait until the summer rather than signing a multiyear deal this past season suggests to me that he and agent Mike Conley Sr. will be seeking more than the minimum. During the season, many of Oden's preferred suitors, such as the Heat, were only able to offer a minimum contract, whereas those teams should have more cap exceptions available in the offseason. Miami, for instance, will have the taxpayer mid-level exception at its disposal.
Perhaps paying someone with Oden's injury history more than the minimum salary seems like an unnecessary risk, but as we've seen before, former No. 1 picks continue to make out well on the open market even after it seems like they're destined to be busts. Kwame Brown, for example, has never been more than a passable backup, but after the lockout he received a $6.7MM salary from the Warriors. After missing most of the 2011/12 season, he still managed to land a multiyear deal worth about $2.9MM annually from the Sixers.
Brown has been healthier than Oden, to be sure, but he no longer has the ex-Blazer's upside. Oden has played in a full season's worth of games in his NBA career, recording 9.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG, a .577 FG%, and a 19.5 PER in 82 contests (22.1 MPG). It's probably unlikely that he'd match that production after such a lengthy layoff, even if he were injury-free. But it's not hard to imagine at least one NBA team talking itself into rolling the dice on the Ohio State product, perhaps as a cheaper alternative to another risky free agent big man like Andrew Bynum.
As Oden and his agent search for a new deal this summer, there will be plenty of uncertainty and apprehenesion surrounding the former top pick. If he's healthy though, I could see Oden landing a deal similar to the one Brown got last summer — a two-year contract worth between $2-3MM annually with a second-year option. That would make Oden a nice value if he could provide even 10-15 good minutes per game, and wouldn't be a disaster for the team if he couldn't stay on the court.
It would be a great story for basketball if Oden makes it back to NBA relevance in '13/14, so I'll be rooting for him as he continues his rehab and searches for a contract this summer.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Matt Barnes
Matt Barnes saved his best for last on Friday, putting up a season-high 30 points and matching a season high in rebounds with 10. It wasn't enough for the Clippers, though, as they fell to the Grizzlies and were eliminated in the first round after a 56-win regular season. That sort of disappointing finish to the season could portend changes in Clipperland, even for players who exceeded expectations, like Barnes.
The gangly 6'7" forward spent last season "stuck in a bad situation," as he put it, under coach Mike Brown with the Lakers. That, coupled with legal trouble, left him unsigned into September. He was such a forgotten commodity that Chris Paul believed Barnes was still under contract with the Lakers when the two met up late last summer. When Barnes told Paul he was a free agent, CP3 sold the Clippers on the idea of signing him. Barnes was apprehensive, knowing the team was well-stocked with small forwards, but he relented and joined the Clippers for the minimum salary, which was all the team could give him after using all of its other cap exceptions.
The afterthought of a signing couldn't have worked out much better for Barnes or the Clippers. Barnes gave the team toughness and energy off the bench as part of perhaps the best second unit in the league. He often replaced starter Caron Butler as the team's small forward down the stretch, and saw plenty of time at power forward when the team went small. Barnes often shared the floor with the defensively challenged Jamal Crawford, prompting coach Vinny Del Negro to use Barnes on the other team's shooting guard if necessary.
He chipped in offensively as well, and not just with his 30-point outburst in the team's final game. Barnes scored 10.3 PPG this season, the best scoring average in his 10-year career. His shooting from the floor (.462) and three-point range (.342) exceeded his career marks. The only other season in which he scored more points per 36 minutes was 2006/07, his breakout campaign with the Warriors. Barnes tied his career high in PER this season, hitting the same 15.5 figure he posted last season in that "bad situation" with the Lakers.
His efficiency won't go overlooked this summer. Paul certainly won't be any less enamored with his play than he was last fall, and assuming CP3 sticks around, he'll likely continue to exert influence on the front office. Vice president of basketball operations Gary Sacks, who's charged with calling the shots for the team's player personnel, will find it difficult to maintain the team's hallmark depth for next season. A max deal for Paul would put them over the cap, with Lamar Odom, Chauncey Billups, Ryan Hollins and Ronny Turiaf all hitting unrestricted free agency. The Clippers probably won't want them all back, but their replacement options are limited. They won't have their bi-annual exception, since they used it to sign Grant Hill last summer, so Sacks and company will have to make do with their mid-level exception, worth a starting salary of $5.15MM, to add free agents. Hill, too, could be gone if he elects to retire, as seems likely.
That would seem to make re-signing Barnes a priority, though it will be tricky. The team only has Non-Bird rights on him, meaning they can do no better than 120% of his minimum salary. That probably won't cut it, so the Clippers will probably have to dip into their mid-level to make it happen. At 33, Barnes won't merit a long-term deal, but he and agent Aaron Goodwin could be looking to maximize his salary for next season, since the former second-round pick has never made more than $3MM in any year, according to Basketball-Reference.
Other contenders probably envy what Barnes brought to the Clippers this season, and teams like the Knicks, Nets and even the L.A. rival Lakers, with Mike D'Antoni having replaced Brown, could all target Barnes with the taxpayer's mid-level exception of $3.183MM. That's just my speculation, of course, but Barnes could be tempted to leave the Clippers if another team dangles what would be the highest salary of his career. Matching such an offer would leave the Clips with just about $2MM with which to make upgrades, barring trades. The decision could come down to whether Sacks believes Barnes plus $2MM worth of talent would be better than someone they could sign for the full mid-level. Considering the return the Clippers got with Crawford using the full mid-level last season, they may be reluctant to split it up, signaling yet another change of address for Barnes.