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Within our list of 2025 free agents, there are currently 14 players in the "restricted free agents" section. However, not all of these players will actually become restricted free agents this offseason.
In order to make those players restricted free agents, their teams must issue them a qualifying offer, which is essentially a one-year contract offer that gives the club the right of first refusal in the event the player wants to sign with another team.
In some cases, that qualifying offer is a mere formality. There was a never a scenario in which the Sixers didn't extend a QO to Tyrese Maxey last offseason, for instance. But if the player's club decides not to issue that QO, he becomes an unrestricted free agent, able to freely sign anywhere.
Even if a team wants to retain a certain free agent, it might not make sense to tender him a qualifying offer if the club isn't comfortable with the idea of him actually accepting that offer due to the cost of the QO or the club's overall cap situation.
Last summer, New York opted not to issue a QO worth approximately $6.28MM to Precious Achiuwa, even though the team hoped to keep him. The Knicks were able to eventually re-sign Achiuwa to a one-year, $6MM deal after gaining a clearer understanding of their salary cap situation in free agency.
Of course, in other cases, a team that doesn't issue a qualifying offer to its potential restricted free agent is simply fine with the idea of losing that player. The Pistons passed on a $7.74MM QO for James Wiseman last offseason, then watched him sign a minimum-salary contract with Indiana as an unrestricted free agent.
In total, just 11 of 27 players on standard contracts (ie. non two-way deals) who were eligible to receive qualifying offers last June got them from their respective teams. A similar process could play out this time around.
Here's an early look at which potential restricted free agents are good bets to get their qualifying offers and which ones might end up as unrestricted FAs:
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included the Bulls' best strategy for the future, NBA prospects to watch during March Madness, the suddenly fun Sixers with their makeshift lineup, the team that could benefit most from adding Cooper Flagg and more! Use the link below to read the transcript.
There will be at least a handful of high-level free agents this offseason who score significant paydays, but it may not be a great time for mid-level free agents to reach the open market.
Cap space will be scarce around the NBA and over-the-cap teams have shown an increasing willingness to preserve their mid-level exceptions until later in the league year, especially now that they can be used to acquire players via trade. Additionally, concerns about the punitive impact of the tax aprons will prompt several clubs to be cautious about their spending, or even to shed salary rather than further increasing their payrolls.
Those factors may result in certain second- or third-tier free agents being squeezed this summer and signing for less than expected. There's not necessarily a lot that a free-agent-to-be can do about that -- it's just the reality of the market.
Of course, one way for a player to reassert some control in the process and to reduce the risk of a disappointing foray into free agency is to play the best basketball of his career in the months before his contract expires.
With few impact players likely to change teams via free agency this summer, mid-level free agents who show out in their contract years should attract the interest of would-be contenders on the lookout for a missing piece, putting themselves in position to receive a fair slice of what could be a limited pie.
Here are 10 NBA players who are enjoying contract years ahead of 2025 free agency:
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included the dangers to the Lakers of a prolonged LeBron James absence, the state of the MVP race, the Mavericks' options to tank or fight for a play-in spot, impactful trade deadline deals and more! Use the link below to read the transcript.
The NBA's 2025 trade deadline has the potential to be the most impactful in recent memory, primarily because of two trades: the Lakers' acquisition of Luka Doncic and the Warriors' deal for Jimmy Butler.
The Lakers are 9-2 since Doncic made his Los Angeles debut and have moved from fifth place in the Western Conference standings up to the No. 2 spot. Golden State has been just as hot, going 10-1 in games Butler has played over the past month and rising from 10th in the conference to sixth. Suddenly, two teams that looked like they'd be lucky to win a playoff series this spring are playing like legitimate contenders to come out of the West.
Outside of those two trades, there's at least one more you could absolutely call a blockbuster -- the three-team deal that sent De'Aaron Fox to the Spurs and Zach LaVine to the Kings may not have the same sort of short-term effect on the Western Conference playoff picture, but Fox's presence in San Antonio alongside Victor Wembanyama figures to be a major factor in future seasons.
I'd add one more deal to this list of pre-deadline "blockbusters" by including the four-team trade that saw Khris Middleton head from the Bucks to the Wizards, with Kyle Kuzma going in the other direction.
Classifying it as a blockbuster may be generous, given Middleton's recent injury history and Kuzma's down year, but Middleton is a three-time All-Star, Kuzma averaged over 21 points per game in each of the past two seasons, and both players have won championships as top-three scorers on their respective teams. A trade that includes both of them is a significant one.
Beyond those four deals, there were 16 others completed during the week leading up to the trade deadline. Many of those have rightly flown under the radar -- the Hornets and Thunder swapping 2029 and 2030 second-round picks, for instance, won't have any effect on the rest of the 2024/25 season.
But there are a handful of deals that have already made a real impact in the month since the February 6 trade deadline and have been somewhat overshadowed by the Doncic and Butler mega-deals. We want to shine a light on several of those trades today, highlighting the best and worst of them.
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included Kyrie Irving's future in Dallas, the Sixers' incentives to tank, the ugly race for play-in spots in the East, potential summer trades involving Trae Young and LaMelo Ball and more! Use the link below to read the transcript.
The origins of 2025's most valuable draft picks - the ones that could turn into top-10 selections - are pretty widely known. It's no secret that the Spurs control Atlanta's first-rounder because of their Dejounte Murray trade or that the top-six protected pick the Sixers owe the Thunder stems from an Al Horford salary dump.
But there are dozens of other 2025 draft picks likely to change hands, and the reasons that teams gave up some of those picks aren't quite so memorable. That's especially true of traded second-rounders, but it applies to a few first-round selections too.
For instance, if you're a Pistons fan, you likely haven't forgotten why Detroit owes its top-13 protected first-rounder to the Timberwolves, but if you root for another team, you may not remember that the Pistons originally gave up that pick in a 2020 deal with Houston that saw Detroit acquire Trevor Ariza and the draft rights to Isaiah Stewart.
Going down memory lane and revisiting past deals to see what sort of impact they'll have on this year's draft is a fun exercise, so we're going to run through all of this year's traded draft picks and identify the deal in which they were initially given up.
A couple caveats before we dive in: First, we're just looking at the initial trade in which the pick was moved, so if it has changed hands a few times since then, we're not covering all of those subsequent deals.
The one exception to that rule is if the pick was essentially traded twice by the same club -- for example, the Hawks sent their 2025 second-rounder with top-40 protection to one team and then dealt it with 41-59 protection to another team. We'll look at both deals, since that pick could still end up going to either one of those teams.
Second, we're not including the traded picks that are locks (or near-locks) to fall into their protected range this season, such as the top-14 protected first-rounder the Hornets owe Sacramento or the top-10 protected pick the Jazz owe Oklahoma City. We're just focusing on picks that will - or at least have a pretty good chance to - change hands this spring.
With all that in mind, let's revisit the deals in which teams gave up 2025 draft picks...
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included the Pistons' rise in the East, a potential P.J. Tucker buyout, Jaren Jackson Jr.'s next contract, what the Rockets need to add to their young core and more! Use the link below to read the transcript.
The Spurs announced on Thursday that Victor Wembanyama's second NBA season has come to an early end after testing showed he has a deep vein thrombosis (a form of blood clot) in his right shoulder.
It's a scary diagnosis, but the Spurs caught it early and are said to be optimistic that it will be an isolated issue. There's a relatively recent NBA precedent to back up that belief -- Brandon Ingram's 2018/19 season came to an early end when he dealt with essentially the exact same condition. He was able to return to action later that year and hasn't had any blood clots since then.
Given that Wembanyama is a rising star who has a chance to become the long-term face of the NBA, his return to full health is obviously the top priority not only for the Spurs, but for the league as a whole. However, his absence for the rest of this season will have a fascinating ripple effect across the NBA that could have a significant long-term impact on either the Grizzlies or the Cavaliers -- or both.
In the space below, we'll dig into how Memphis and Cleveland will be affected by Wembanyama's health issue, Bobby Portis' 25-game suspension, the Pelicans' Javonte Green buyout, and more.
Let's dive in...