Hoops Rumors' Arthur Hill will hold a live chat Tuesday at 11 am Central time (noon Eastern) exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event and read the transcript afterward.
The 2024/25 NBA regular season is officially over, but the draft order for this June has not yet been set.
A handful of factors, including the play-in results, random tiebreakers, and - of course - the lottery results themselves will ultimately determine what the 59(*) picks in the 2025 NBA draft look like. But with the season in the books, there's plenty we do know.
(* Note: The Knicks' second-round pick is forfeited due to a free agency gun-jumping violation.)
Let's dive in and check in on several key aspects of the lottery standings and projected draft order...
A total of 20 NBA veterans hold player options on their contracts for the 2025/26 season, as our free agent list shows.
Those 20 players range from superstars like LeBron James to reserves like Eric Gordon. The value of their respective options reflects that wide gap -- James would earn nearly $53MM if he opts in for next season, while Gordon would earn just shy of $3.5MM.
Still, despite the huge difference between those two players' potential '25/26 salaries, Gordon may be the one of the two more likely to pick up his option and lock in that guaranteed money for next season. Each player facing an option decision will weigh several factors, including his 2024/25 performance, his role, his age, and what sort of offers might be available to him on the open market if he opts out.
Most players holding options won't have to finalize a decision until the league-wide deadline of June 29, but it's not uncommon for certain options to be exercised in April, shortly after a player's season wraps up. So we're looking ahead today at all 20 of those decisions to try to get a sense of which direction they might go.
Let's dive in...
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included the Bulls' options for keeping their current roster together, Cooper Flagg's status among the top draft picks of the last decade, Quentin Grimes' prospects on the free agent market, the surprising coaching change in Memphis and more! Use the link below to read the transcript.
The months on the calendar between the NBA's in-season trade deadline and the start of the offseason represent the only time of year in which teams aren't permitted to make trades.
Still, while the possibility of Shams Charania dropping shocking trade news in the middle of the night is off the table during this final stretch of the regular season, there's plenty going on around the league that will impact future roster decisions and trade talks.
We're checking in on a few of those subplots today. Let's dive right in...
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included whether the Pistons should go star hunting this summer, the potential of the young rosters in Washington and Portland, the Mavericks' chances of making another playoff run, the Celtics' ability to keep their expensive talent together and more! Use the link below to read the transcript.
Within our list of 2025 free agents, there are currently 14 players in the "restricted free agents" section. However, not all of these players will actually become restricted free agents this offseason.
In order to make those players restricted free agents, their teams must issue them a qualifying offer, which is essentially a one-year contract offer that gives the club the right of first refusal in the event the player wants to sign with another team.
In some cases, that qualifying offer is a mere formality. There was a never a scenario in which the Sixers didn't extend a QO to Tyrese Maxey last offseason, for instance. But if the player's club decides not to issue that QO, he becomes an unrestricted free agent, able to freely sign anywhere.
Even if a team wants to retain a certain free agent, it might not make sense to tender him a qualifying offer if the club isn't comfortable with the idea of him actually accepting that offer due to the cost of the QO or the club's overall cap situation.
Last summer, New York opted not to issue a QO worth approximately $6.28MM to Precious Achiuwa, even though the team hoped to keep him. The Knicks were able to eventually re-sign Achiuwa to a one-year, $6MM deal after gaining a clearer understanding of their salary cap situation in free agency.
Of course, in other cases, a team that doesn't issue a qualifying offer to its potential restricted free agent is simply fine with the idea of losing that player. The Pistons passed on a $7.74MM QO for James Wiseman last offseason, then watched him sign a minimum-salary contract with Indiana as an unrestricted free agent.
In total, just 11 of 27 players on standard contracts (ie. non two-way deals) who were eligible to receive qualifying offers last June got them from their respective teams. A similar process could play out this time around.
Here's an early look at which potential restricted free agents are good bets to get their qualifying offers and which ones might end up as unrestricted FAs:
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included the Bulls' best strategy for the future, NBA prospects to watch during March Madness, the suddenly fun Sixers with their makeshift lineup, the team that could benefit most from adding Cooper Flagg and more! Use the link below to read the transcript.
There will be at least a handful of high-level free agents this offseason who score significant paydays, but it may not be a great time for mid-level free agents to reach the open market.
Cap space will be scarce around the NBA and over-the-cap teams have shown an increasing willingness to preserve their mid-level exceptions until later in the league year, especially now that they can be used to acquire players via trade. Additionally, concerns about the punitive impact of the tax aprons will prompt several clubs to be cautious about their spending, or even to shed salary rather than further increasing their payrolls.
Those factors may result in certain second- or third-tier free agents being squeezed this summer and signing for less than expected. There's not necessarily a lot that a free-agent-to-be can do about that -- it's just the reality of the market.
Of course, one way for a player to reassert some control in the process and to reduce the risk of a disappointing foray into free agency is to play the best basketball of his career in the months before his contract expires.
With few impact players likely to change teams via free agency this summer, mid-level free agents who show out in their contract years should attract the interest of would-be contenders on the lookout for a missing piece, putting themselves in position to receive a fair slice of what could be a limited pie.
Here are 10 NBA players who are enjoying contract years ahead of 2025 free agency:
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included the dangers to the Lakers of a prolonged LeBron James absence, the state of the MVP race, the Mavericks' options to tank or fight for a play-in spot, impactful trade deadline deals and more! Use the link below to read the transcript.