Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included a possible new home for Brandon Ingram, the Bulls' problems at power forward, Trail Blazers who might be on the move, the Cavaliers' playoff prospects and more!
A total of 20 NBA trades were completed during the 2021/22 season. That number dipped to 17 in '22/23 before jumping to a whopping 27 in '23/24.
While it's possible the number of in-season trades made between now and the 2025 trade deadline will match or surpass those totals, I expect it to be more difficult than ever this season for teams to find suitable trade partners and viable deals as they navigate the cap, tax, and aprons.
Fourteen NBA teams are currently operating in luxury tax territory. Nine of those teams are over the first tax apron and four of those nine are over the second apron too, significantly restricting the types of moves they're permitted to make.
Of the 16 non-tax clubs, seven are within $5MM of the luxury tax line and will likely do all they can to avoid surpassing that threshold. A total of 17 clubs (some in the tax and some not) face hard caps that could further limit their flexibility.
In other words, completing even a fairly straightforward deal could require some creativity, given the roadblocks that teams will have to work around on the trade market.
There's also another complicating factor for teams to consider, which we want to focus on today. In the space below, we'll take a closer look at how two forms of bonuses could impede trade scenarios this season, as well as identifying several top trade candidates with bonuses who are worth keeping an eye on.
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included whether Houston is the best spot for Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Pistons' options in speeding up their rebuild, a potential coaching change in New Orleans, the Bucks' early-season dilemma, a possible dark horse winner for the in-season tournament and more!
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included the Knicks' salary cap maneuverings, early-season favorites in the Eastern Conference, a surprising start in Brooklyn, Zion Williamson's latest injury issues, concerns about Giannis Antetokounmpo leaving Milwaukee and more!
Over half of the NBA's 30 teams face some sort of hard cap for the rest of the 2024/25 league year. A total of 14 clubs are hard-capped at the first tax apron ($178,132,000) as a result of moves they made on the trade market or in free agency, while three more are hard-capped at the second tax apron ($188,931,000).
Those teams won't be permitted to surpass their respective hard caps for any reason for the rest of '24/25, and it's entirely possible - likely, actually - that more clubs will join them on that list as they finalize in-season signings and trades in the coming months. Just a couple weeks ago, the Grizzlies became the 17th team to get hard-capped when they used a portion of their non-taxpayer mid-level exception to sign Scotty Pippen Jr.
[RELATED: How NBA Teams Become Hard-Capped]
However, in most cases, a hard cap doesn't actually serve as a material obstacle for a team. For instance, the Hornets are currently hard-capped at the first apron, but their team salary for apron purposes is more than $16MM below that threshold.
While the Hornets could take on some additional salary in a pre-deadline trade, it's extremely hard to imagine a scenario in which they surpass the luxury tax line ($170,814,000), let alone approach their $178MM+ hard cap. Certainly, Charlotte's front office should be aware of that hard cap over the course of the season, but it shouldn't be a front-of-mind concern that would prevent the team from pulling the trigger on any moves it realistically wants to make.
Not every team can afford to approach its hard cap like the Hornets though. For a handful of clubs, the hard cap will be a day-to-day consideration that affects a team's ability to sign a free agent, make a trade, or even carry a full 15-man roster.
Let's take a closer look at which teams have to be most aware of their hard caps over the course of the 2024/25 league year.
Hoops Rumors' Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
Arthur took questions on possible Bulls trades, potential in-season coaching changes, the Thunder's top challenges in the West, the chances of a fire sale in Milwaukee, which veteran star might fit best in Houston, and more!
Roster continuity is typically viewed as a positive trait for NBA teams. It's not uncommon for players to express appreciation for the opportunity to spend multiple seasons getting comfortable with the same teammates rather than having to deal with significant personnel changes from year to year.
Still, it's roster turnover - rather than continuity - that draws the most headlines during the NBA offseason and generates the most hype entering the fall. That's why we spent way more time talking about teams like the Knicks and Sixers in the weeks and months leading up to opening night than we did discussing the Cavaliers, who added exactly one new player (rookie Jaylon Tyson) to the standard roster they carried into the end of last season.
There's no set formula to NBA success -- carrying over a significant number of players from last year's team doesn’t necessarily give a club a leg up entering a new season. But continuity was a signifier of success in 2023/24.
Of the seven teams who carried over at least 13 players (including two-ways) from their end-of-season rosters in 2022/23 to the start of the '23/24 season, five improved their records and a sixth equaled its win total from the previous season. The Grizzlies were the only exception, and they were hurt far more by injuries than they were by a lack of roster changes.
Many of the top candidates for veteran extensions this offseason have already signed new contracts.
While stars like Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo, and Donovan Mitchell finalized new deals shortly after the July moratorium lifted, there has been a steady stream of veteran extensions since then, with Joel Embiid, Jamal Murray, Jose Alvarado, T.J. McConnell, Terance Mann, Ivica Zubac, and Wendell Carter having all completed new contracts since the start of September.
In total, 18 veterans have signed extensions since the 2024/25 league year began, dwarfing the four rookie scale extensions that have been finalized during that same period.
As we wrote last week, there will likely be a small flurry of rookie scale extensions ahead of Monday's deadline. That may not be the case for veteran extensions, but there's reason to believe we could see some action on that front too.
For one, while the day before the regular season isn't the deadline for all veteran extensions - like it is for rookie scale extensions - it is the last day for an extension-eligible vet to work out a new deal if he has a contract (not an option year) for 2025/26. Those players will be ineligible for new deals during the season if they don't sign by Monday -- they would regain their eligibility next summer.
Players who are on expiring contracts or who hold options for 2025/26 (which could be declined as part of an extension agreement) will remain eligible to sign new deals all season, but some of those players may prefer to get something done before opening night in order to avoid the distraction of having their contract situation hanging over their head during the season.
In the space below, we'll take a look at three groups of players eligible for veteran extensions -- those who face an October 21 deadline, those who will remain eligible all season, and those who are good extension candidates but aren't expected to sign until at least 2025.
Four NBA players have signed rookie scale extensions so far in 2024, but if recent history is any indication, that number should at least double - and perhaps triple - by October 21, which is the deadline for those deals to be completed.
In each of the past four offseasons from 2020-23, at least 10 rookie scale extensions have been signed, including a record-setting 14 a year ago.
And while it's not uncommon for the most lucrative of those extensions to be finalized early in the offseason - like the maximum-salary deals for Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Franz Wagner were this summer - many negotiations go down to the wire. In each of those last four years, at least six rookie scale extensions have been completed in October (or, in the case of the COVID-delayed 2020 offseason, December).
Based on those figures, it seems safe to assume news will break within the next 10 days about a few more rookie scale extension agreements, but which of the players eligible to sign those contracts are the best bets to actually get something done? That's the question we're considering today.
Listed below are the 20 players still eligible for rookie scale extensions, ranked by the likelihood that they'll finalize new deals by October 21. We're starting with the least likely candidates and working our way up to the most likely.
To clarify, this list isn't ranking these players by value -- the No. 1 player isn't necessarily the one who should get the most lucrative contract. We're just using our best judgment to predict which of them are most likely to have new contracts in hand by opening night, allowing them to avoid going through the restricted free agency process in July 2025.
Let's dive in...
Not happening
20. Chris Duarte (Bulls)
Never say never, but it's pretty hard to envision a scenario in which Duarte signs a new contract with the Bulls before the season begins. He was sent from Sacramento to Chicago in the DeMar DeRozan sign-and-trade for salary purposes after two disappointing seasons in Indiana and Sacramento in which he averaged just 5.6 points per game on 37.4% shooting (32.9% on three-pointers). Duarte showed real promise in his rookie year in 2021/22 (13.1 PPG, .369 3PT%) and if he can recapture that form, he'd be worth retaining beyond the coming season, but now isn't the time to commit to him.
The new rules in place this season for NBA teams operating above either tax apron dictate that those clubs are prohibited - in most cases - from taking back more salary than they send out in a trade.
That restriction will make it difficult for two teams operating above the apron to make a trade with one another, but the Knicks and Timberwolves provided a blueprint with this week's Karl-Anthony Towns blockbuster for one way it can happen -- find a third team to take on some extra salary.
In the Towns trade, the Hornets acquired approximately $6.8MM in salary from the Knicks without trading away any themselves, which allowed both Minnesota and New York to send out more salary than they took back in the deal. Charlotte received three second-round picks - two from the Knicks and one from the Wolves - for their troubles.
That's not the only way for two apron teams to trade with one another, but it's the most straightforward path, particularly in bigger deals like the Towns one. With that in mind, it's worth considering which teams around the NBA are the best candidates to be the next Hornets, acting as facilitators in deals involving two clubs facing apron-related restrictions.
There are essentially three characteristics that make a team an ideal candidate to be a third-party facilitator in this sort of trade: