Front Office Originals

Many of the top candidates for veteran extensions this offseason have already signed new contracts.

While stars like Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo, and Donovan Mitchell finalized new deals shortly after the July moratorium lifted, there has been a steady stream of veteran extensions since then, with Joel Embiid, Jamal Murray, Jose Alvarado, T.J. McConnell, Terance Mann, Ivica Zubac, and Wendell Carter having all completed new contracts since the start of September.

In total, 18 veterans have signed extensions since the 2024/25 league year began, dwarfing the four rookie scale extensions that have been finalized during that same period.

As we wrote last week, there will likely be a small flurry of rookie scale extensions ahead of Monday's deadline. That may not be the case for veteran extensions, but there's reason to believe we could see some action on that front too.

For one, while the day before the regular season isn't the deadline for all veteran extensions - like it is for rookie scale extensions - it is the last day for an extension-eligible vet to work out a new deal if he has a contract (not an option year) for 2025/26. Those players will be ineligible for new deals during the season if they don't sign by Monday -- they would regain their eligibility next summer.

Players who are on expiring contracts or who hold options for 2025/26 (which could be declined as part of an extension agreement) will remain eligible to sign new deals all season, but some of those players may prefer to get something done before opening night in order to avoid the distraction of having their contract situation hanging over their head during the season.

In the space below, we'll take a look at three groups of players eligible for veteran extensions -- those who face an October 21 deadline, those who will remain eligible all season, and those who are good extension candidates but aren't expected to sign until at least 2025.

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Four NBA players have signed rookie scale extensions so far in 2024, but if recent history is any indication, that number should at least double - and perhaps triple - by October 21, which is the deadline for those deals to be completed.

In each of the past four offseasons from 2020-23, at least 10 rookie scale extensions have been signed, including a record-setting 14 a year ago.

And while it's not uncommon for the most lucrative of those extensions to be finalized early in the offseason - like the maximum-salary deals for Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Franz Wagner were this summer - many negotiations go down to the wire. In each of those last four years, at least six rookie scale extensions have been completed in October (or, in the case of the COVID-delayed 2020 offseason, December).

Based on those figures, it seems safe to assume news will break within the next 10 days about a few more rookie scale extension agreements, but which of the players eligible to sign those contracts are the best bets to actually get something done? That's the question we're considering today.

Listed below are the 20 players still eligible for rookie scale extensions, ranked by the likelihood that they'll finalize new deals by October 21. We're starting with the least likely candidates and working our way up to the most likely.

To clarify, this list isn't ranking these players by value -- the No. 1 player isn't necessarily the one who should get the most lucrative contract. We're just using our best judgment to predict which of them are most likely to have new contracts in hand by opening night, allowing them to avoid going through the restricted free agency process in July 2025.

Let's dive in...

Not happening

20. Chris Duarte (Bulls)
Never say never, but it's pretty hard to envision a scenario in which Duarte signs a new contract with the Bulls before the season begins. He was sent from Sacramento to Chicago in the DeMar DeRozan sign-and-trade for salary purposes after two disappointing seasons in Indiana and Sacramento in which he averaged just 5.6 points per game on 37.4% shooting (32.9% on three-pointers). Duarte showed real promise in his rookie year in 2021/22 (13.1 PPG, .369 3PT%) and if he can recapture that form, he'd be worth retaining beyond the coming season, but now isn't the time to commit to him.

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The NBA's current Collective Bargaining Agreement went into effect fairly recently, in 2023, and many of the more punitive restrictions on tax apron teams weren't implemented until 2024, but we're already feeling the impact of the new CBA on the league's highest-spending clubs.

The Celtics, Bucks, Suns, and Timberwolves, who are operating above the second tax apron in 2024/25, were unable to sign any outside free agents for more than the veteran's minimum this offseason. They've also faced significant limitations on the trade market, including an inability to aggregate salaries, trade cash, use previous trade exceptions, or take back more salary than they send out.

Those restrictions have been a major factor in the clubs' relative inactivity on the trade market. Boston and Milwaukee are two of just four teams around the NBA who haven't made any trades this summer. The Lakers, another one of those four teams who haven't made a deal, are operating just a hair below the second apron).

Meanwhile, of the four second-apron teams, the Suns are the only one to have acquired a player on an NBA contract in an offseason trade. That deal - David Roddy for E.J. Liddell - was a straightforward salary dump that ultimately resulted in the newly acquired player (Liddell) being waived for luxury tax savings, which serves as an important reminder -- on top of their roster-building limitations, those apron teams will be on the hook for substantial tax payments at season's end.

Still, as impactful as the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement has already been on some of the NBA's most expensive rosters, some of the toughest penalties being imposed on the league's biggest spenders are still to come in 2025. Today, we're taking a closer look at a couple more notable ways in which the current CBA will complicate teams' dynasty-building efforts in the coming years by further disincentivizing big spending.

Let's dive in...

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The NBA's Designated Veteran rule, as we explain in our glossary entry on the subject, allows players to qualify for a maximum salary worth 35% of the cap before they gain the required NBA service time.

Typically, a player is ineligible to receive a maximum contract that starts at 35% of the cap until he has at least 10 years of experience, but the Designated Veteran rule gives a player with between seven and nine years of experience the opportunity to do so if he meets certain performance criteria. This has become colloquially known as signing a "super-max" deal.

The performance criteria are as follows (only one of the following must be true):

• The player was named to an All-NBA team and/or was named the NBA Defensive Player of the Year in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.
• The player was named the NBA MVP in any of the three most recent seasons.

Since the NBA introduced the concept of the Designated Veteran contract in 2017, 13 players have signed them across eight offseasons. Celtics star Jayson Tatum became the latest player to join that group this summer when he signed a five-year extension projected to become the first $300MM+ contract in NBA history.

Tatum will be the only player who signs such a contract this offseason, but it's worth taking a peek down the road to see which players are the best candidates to join the list of super-max recipients in 2025.

Here are some players to watch during the 2024/25 season:

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