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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

September 24th, 2020 at 4:57pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Portland Trail Blazers.

Salary Cap Outlook

Accounting for their guaranteed salaries, player options for Rodney Hood and Mario Hezonja, and a cap hold for their first-round pick, the Trail Blazers have over $104MM in commitments on their books for 2020/21. That probably eliminates the possibility of cap room, but the team should be able to stay out of the luxury tax — its decisions on certain free agents and Trevor Ariza‘s partially guaranteed salary will likely be made with the tax line in mind.

Depending on how far over the cap Portland goes, the team will have either the full mid-level ($9.3MM) and bi-annual ($3.6MM) exceptions available, or will be limited to the taxpayer MLE ($5.7MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Trail Blazers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Rodney Hood, player option: $6,003,900
Mario Hezonja, player option: $1,977,011

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Trevor Ariza ($12,800,000)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $1.8MM.

Two-Way Contracts:

Moses Brown (expiring)
Jaylen Hoard (expiring)

Free Agents:

Hassan Whiteside (Bird)
Caleb Swanigan (Bird)
Carmelo Anthony (Non-Bird)
Wenyen Gabriel (RFA; Early Bird)
Jaylen Adams (N/A)
- Note: Adams won’t have any form of Bird rights because he was signed as a substitute player.

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 16 overall pick

Second Round:

No. 46 overall pick

The Trail Blazers have their own two picks in the 2020 NBA draft. As a result of their summer playoff push, their first-round pick moved out of the lottery and down to No. 16.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will Hassan Whiteside and/or Carmelo Anthony be re-signed?

With Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins out for most of the 2019/20 season with injuries, Whiteside was asked to play a major role in the Trail Blazers’ frontcourt, and it would have been unfair to expect a much better performance than the one he provided.

The former Heat big man averaged 15.5 PPG, 13.5 RPG, and a league-leading 2.9 BPG in 67 games (30.0 MPG). Portland had a +2.7 net rating when he played, compared to just -5.5 when he sat.

Those numbers don’t tell the whole story, of course. Whiteside’s net rating was buoyed by sharing the court so often with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. And while his individual numbers were impressive, he’s not an especially versatile defender and his effort can be inconsistent.

An unrestricted free agent this offseason, Whiteside won’t match the $27MM he earned in 2019/20, and the Blazers should probably be wary about offering him even half that amount for ’20/21. Nurkic will be back in the starting lineup next season, and Collins’ role in the frontcourt should be increased as he continues to develop. Whiteside would be a useful depth piece, but Portland would probably be better off using its cap flexibility to focus on wings, perhaps opting instead for a lower-cost backup center who can stretch the floor a little.

Prioritizing wings could bode well for Anthony, who spent time at small forward when the Blazers got healthy and pivoted to jumbo lineups during the summer restart. Carmelo isn’t the dynamic scorer he once was and can’t be relied upon for lockdown defense, but he was a great fit in Portland as a secondary scorer, averaging 15.4 PPG with a .385 3PT% in 58 regular season games and making some big shots during the Blazers’ push for the No. 8 seed.

All indications are that the Blazers and Anthony have mutual interest in a reunion, so it may come down to the price tag — Carmelo’s minimum-salary contract was a bargain for Portland in 2019/20, but he may not come so cheap next season, and the club will have to decide how high it’s willing to go to bring him back. With only Non-Bird rights on the veteran forward, the Blazers would have to dip into their mid-level or use their bi-annual exception to offer him more than about $3MM.

2. Will Trevor Ariza be retained?

Portland’s decision on Anthony may hinge on part on what the team does with Ariza, another veteran forward who is a more effective defender than Carmelo, albeit not nearly as dangerous a scorer. Only $1.8MM of Ariza’s $12.8MM salary for 2020/21 is guaranteed, so the team could clear $11MM from its books by waiving him.

However, clearing that money wouldn’t create any extra cap room for the Blazers, who figure to operate as an over-the-cap team whether or not Ariza is around. That fact, combined with Ariza’s strong production for Portland last season (11.0 PPG on .491/.400/.872 shooting in 21 games), should help ensure that the 35-year-old is retained.

That doesn’t mean Ariza is a lock to spend the entire season with the Blazers. His expiring contract could be useful in a trade if there’s an opportunity for the club to acquire a younger and/or more impactful wing.

However, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Ariza finishes out his contract in Portland. In their first-round loss to the Lakers this summer, the Blazers were missing a player like Ariza (who had opted out of the restart) — a versatile defender with enough size to guard LeBron James. While the team will only play the Lakers a handful of times in 2020/21, Ariza’s ability to guard similar opposing frontcourt scorers should come in handy going forward.

3. What are the Blazers’ expectations for 2020/21?

Injuries to Nurkic, Collins, and Rodney Hood nearly sunk the Trail Blazers’ playoff chances in 2019/20, as Lillard and McCollum battled valiantly to keep the club within striking distance of the No. 8 seed. When Nurkic and Collins returned during the restart, Portland looked like a different team, compiling a 6-2 record in seeding games and defeating the Grizzlies in the play-in game before running into the top-seeded Lakers in the first round.

With almost all their top players under contract and Hood expected to be healthy, the Blazers should enter the 2020/21 season with increased expectations. After all, they’re only a year removed from an appearance in the Western Finals. And if the Lakers end up making a championship run this fall, Portland can probably convince itself it would’ve made more noise in the postseason against a different opponent.

Still, the Western Conference will be more competitive than ever next season and it would be risky to pencil in the Blazers for a top-five seed and a playoff series win or two. Lillard is a star and McCollum is a strong second option, but Portland still seems to be one impact player away from being a true title contender.

My best guess is that the Blazers will enter 2020/21 betting that a savvy mid-level addition and better health luck will help push them into the contender conversation, but I think they may eventually have to turn to the trade market to try to find that missing piece.

Armed with all their future first-round draft picks and with promising young players like Collins, Gary Trent Jr., Anfernee Simons, and Nassir Little, the Blazers have the pieces necessary to put together an intriguing package if a star becomes available. It will be interesting to see whether Neil Olshey and the front office start to feel any urgency to push their chips into the pot and try to maximize their window while Lillard (who turned 30 in July) is still in his prime.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Orlando Magic

September 22nd, 2020 at 3:10pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

The Magic currently have approximately $96MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2020/21. That figure would increase to over $102MM if they use this year’s first-round pick and sign last year’s first-round pick, Chuma Okeke. And it would jump to nearly $120MM if Evan Fournier opts into the final year of his contract.

Whether or not Fournier returns, Orlando is unlikely to have any cap room available this offseason, but the team shouldn’t have to worry about going into tax territory. The Magic would have the full mid-level exception ($9.3MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.6MM) available, but almost certainly wouldn’t use both in full if Fournier is back.

Our full salary cap preview for the Magic can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Evan Fournier, player option: $17,150,000
James Ennis, player option: $2,130,023
Melvin Frazier, team option: $1,663,861

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

None

Two-Way Contracts:

B.J. Johnson (expiring)
Vic Law (expiring)

Free Agents:

D.J. Augustin (Bird)
Michael Carter-Williams (Early Bird)
Wesley Iwundu (RFA; Bird)
Gary Clark (RFA; Non-Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 15 overall pick

Second Round:

No. 45 overall pick

The Magic were one of the few NBA teams that didn’t trade either their first- or second-round pick in the 2020 NBA draft. They’ll pick right in the middle of each round.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What’s the plan for Evan Fournier?

Before the coronavirus pandemic complicated the financial outlook for teams and players around the NBA, Fournier appeared likely to turn down the $17MM option on his contract in order to test the open market this offseason.

While $17MM is a lot of money to pass up, the stars seemed to be aligning for Fournier — he’s still in his prime (he turns 28 in October), plenty of teams were expected to be in the market for wings, and the Frenchman had put up some of the best numbers of his career, including 18.8 PPG on .470/.406/.820 shooting prior to the league’s hiatus.

However, an illness put a dent in Fournier’s production during the seeding games and the playoffs, and with the salary cap no longer expected to increase, the prospect of finding a team willing to pay him in the neighborhood of $17MM per year on a multiyear deal suddenly looks a whole lot more challenging.

That doesn’t mean Fournier is a lock to pick up his option. He and the Magic could work out a new multiyear contract that significantly increases his overall guarantee without necessarily assuring him of $17MM (or more) per year. A year ago, for instance, Jonas Valanciunas passed on a $17.6MM option in favor of a three-year contract worth $15MM per year, giving him more long-term security.

But the Magic, having already invested long-term in Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross, may be reluctant to do the same for another key contributor to a roster that has finished in the middle of the pack in each of the last few seasons. If that’s the case, Fournier’s safest bet would be to opt in and try his luck on the 2021 market.

If Fournier opts in, there’s nothing stopping the Magic from gauging his value on the trade market. He’d be on an expiring contract and his pre-hiatus play in 2019/20 was impressive — he could appeal to a team looking to add a complementary scorer on the wing.

2. Will the Magic extend Markelle Fultz or Jonathan Isaac?

While it remains to be seen if Fournier is part of the Magic’s long-term plans, all signs point to the team being willing to invest in Fultz and Isaac as cornerstone pieces. It’s just not clear whether that will happen this offseason, when both members of the 2017 draft class become eligible for rookie scale extensions for the first time.

Fultz, who has experienced a pretty unusual career trajectory for a No. 1 pick so far, stayed healthy for the first time in 2019/20 and flashed signs of the upside that made him the first overall choice three years ago. His ability to break down a defense and set up his teammates was on display in Orlando, as he averaged 12.1 PPG and 5.1 APG, but there’s still plenty of work to be done on his jump shot (.267 3PT%).

At age 22, Fultz still has plenty of growth potential. The Magic will have to determine how confident they are that he’ll continue to improve, how much they’re willing to bet on that growth, and whether Fultz will be willing to forgo restricted free agency in favor of an early extension.

If Orlando bets right on Fultz, it could mean getting him on a team-friendly extension as he blossoms into a star, which would change the long-term outlook of the franchise. On the other hand, investing big money in him now and then watching his development curve flatten would hamstring the organization’s spending ability going forward.

It’ll be a tough decision, so it will be interesting to see how high the Magic are willing to go — ESPN’s Bobby Marks suggests the team should wait for Fultz’s restricted free agency unless he’s open to signing a deal that starts in the neighborhood of his 2020/21 salary ($12.3MM).

As for Isaac, the blossoming Defensive Player of the Year contender would’ve been a more logical candidate for a rookie scale extension if he were healthy. Instead, he’ll be recovering from an ACL injury that’s expected to sideline him for the entire 2020/21 season, so the Magic will have to evaluate his recovery before making any major commitment.

The injury doesn’t mean Isaac can’t sign an extension in the coming months. We’ve seen players like Klay Thompson and Kristaps Porzingis get lucrative new long-term deals while recovering from ACL tears of their own, and all indications are that the Magic want Isaac to be a part of their future. Unlike Thompson and Porzingis though, Isaac isn’t a lock for a maximum-salary offer, so some negotiation will be required if the two sides are going to come to an agreement before the ’20/21 season begins.

3. Will Aaron Gordon be on the trade block?

Prior to Isaac’s injury, Gordon seemed like one of the NBA’s most logical offseason trade candidates. He and Isaac overlap positionally, his name has come up in previous trade rumors, and his contract gets more favorable with each passing year due to its declining annual value ($18.1MM in 2020/21; $16.4MM in ’21/22).

Now that Isaac will be out for the season though, Orlando figures to be less motivated to move Gordon. With the power forward position to himself in ’20/21, the 25-year-old could be primed for a career year, which would be a win-win situation for the Magic — not only would they enjoy the benefits of his production, but Gordon could increase his trade value ahead of the ’21 deadline and/or offseason.

Gordon’s athleticism and defensive versatility make him a tantalizing trade target, and if there’s a team willing to give up an appealing package for him this offseason, the Magic should certainly listen. Of the players the team would be open to moving, Gordon is the most intriguing, and he represents Orlando’s best chance to acquire an impact player who would be a better fit for the current roster.

If there are no favorable offers out there this fall or winter, however, the Magic shouldn’t be in any rush to shake things up. Gordon is in position to boost his value next season, and still has two years left on his contract, so unless something goes wrong, the club will have more opportunities to cash in its stock down the road.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Will Lakers Win 2020 NBA Title?

September 21st, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

When the NBA’s postseason began just over a month ago, the Lakers were coming off a shaky 3-5 showing in the summer seeding games, and had roughly the same odds as the Clippers and Bucks to win the 2020 NBA championship, according to most sportsbooks.

Five weeks later, the Clippers and Bucks have been eliminated from title contention, as have many of the teams viewed as second-tier title threats, such as Toronto, Philadelphia, and Houston. The Lakers hold a commanding 2-0 lead over the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals, while neither the Heat nor the Celtics have looked especially dominant in the Eastern Finals.

In other words, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the rest of the Lakers find themselves in a great position to finish off an impressive playoff run and bring home the franchise’s first championship since 2010. The oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag currently list the Lakers as -350 favorites, meaning you’d have to risk $350 in order to win just $100 for an L.A. title.

While the Lakers may be the overwhelming favorites for now, it’s a little early to pencil them in as the NBA’s 2020 champions. After all, the Nuggets were just a Davis buzzer-beater away from pulling even at one game apiece in the Western Finals — and even down 2-0, Denver is hardly about to roll over, having already overcome a pair of 3-1 deficits in these playoffs.

If the Lakers can put away the Nuggets, they’ll enter the NBA Finals as heavy favorites, but the Celtics and Heat shouldn’t be overlooked either. Boston dominated Joel Embiid and the Sixers before eliminating the defending-champion Raptors – who had the league’s second-best record this season – in perhaps the most hard-fought series of the postseason.

As for the Heat, Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s ankle injury helped them finish off Milwaukee, but they’d played better than the 56-17 Bucks even before Antetokounmpo got hurt. Knocking off the Pacers, Bucks, and Celtics would represent an impressive path to the Finals for Miami.

Either Eastern team will also benefit from playing in the Disney World bubble, where home-court advantage is essentially nonexistent and the Lakers’ regular-season edge wouldn’t give them an extra Finals game at Staples Center. Still, L.A. has shown so far that it doesn’t need the help that home-court advantage provides.

What do you think? Are you confident the Lakers will win the Finals and get LeBron his fourth ring, or will one of the other three teams still alive play spoiler and take this year’s crown?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Playoff Edition

September 18th, 2020 at 8:46pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. With the playoffs ongoing at the Orlando campus, it’s time to examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors.

Daniel Theis, Celtics, 28, C (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $10MM deal in 2019

Heading into the playoffs, no one quite knew what the Celtics’ big man rotation would look like. There’s no doubt right now which center coach Brad Stevens trusts the most. Theis has played heavy minutes when he’s been able to stay out of foul trouble. He averaged 30.1 MPG in the seven-game series against the Raptors and was productive (10.1 PPG, 8.3 RPG) while keeping turnovers to a minimum (1.0). He’s averaged 33.5 MPG thus far against the Heat. Moreover, the Celtics’ staff trusts that Theis can switch onto a variety of players defensively. His $5MM salary for next season isn’t guaranteed but it’s hard to imagine Boston would let him go.

Marcus Morris, Clippers, 31, PF (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $15MM deal in 2019

Morris had an interesting and controversial journey through free agency last summer. He reneged a two-year agreement with San Antonio and signed a one-year, $15MM pact with the Knicks. When the Clippers acquired Morris at the trade deadline, he was viewed as potentially the final piece to a championship puzzle. The Clippers crashed and burned in part because Morris was a non-factor as the series against the Nuggets wore on. In the last two games, Morris averaged 6.0 PPG and shot 3-for-14 from the field. He was better at being an irritant than a difference-maker. It will be interesting to see if his price tag drops this offseason.

Serge Ibaka, Raptors, 31, PF/C (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $65MM deal in 2017

Ibaka had a strong postseason run while coming off the bench. He averaged 14.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG and 1.3 BPG in 22.8 MPG while making 51.1% of his 3-point attempts. Ibaka turns 31 on Friday but he’ll receive his biggest birthday gift in the coming months when the Raptors or some other suitor hands him a lucrative deal. ESPN’s Bobby Marks believes he will get full $9.3MM mid-level exception offers from playoff teams without cap space but that Toronto may offer a one-year deal at $18MM to keep him and preserve cap space for next summer.

Monte Morris, Nuggets, 25, PG (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $4.66MM deal in 2018

When Malik Beasley was dealt to the Timberwolves in February, Morris became the clear-cut backup to Jamal Murray. He’s been a key piece off the bench during the Nuggets’ dream run to the Western Conference Finals. Morris averaged just 16.6 MPG against the Clippers but scored in double digits four times during the series. He’s also played smart and poised, making more steals (10) than turnovers (8) in 297 minutes during the first two playoff series. Morris has a $1.66MM non-guaranteed salary for next season. That seems like a very big bargain.

Meyers Leonard, Heat, 28, PF/C (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $41MM deal in 2016

The Heat have received significant contributions from a good chunk of their roster during their surprising carpet ride to the Eastern Conference Finals. Leonard hasn’t been among that group. Leonard, who made $11.3MM this season, was a starter until February when he suffered an ankle injury. He’s been relegated to cheerleading status during the restart, appearing in two seeding games and one postseason game. He was mainly a second-unit player in Portland before this season and he’ll have to compete for a rotation spot wherever he lands next season.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Memphis Grizzlies

September 17th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

Though they were initially projected to have some cap room this offseason, the Grizzlies all but eliminated that possibility at the trade deadline when they moved three players on expiring contracts – Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder, and Solomon Hill – in exchange for three – Justise Winslow, Gorgui Dieng, and Dion Waiters – who have eight-figure salaries for 2020/21.

As a result, the Grizzlies have more than $112MM in guaranteed money on their books for ’20/21, so they’ll operate as an over-the-cap team. They won’t have the bi-annual exception available after using it this past season, but they should be able to utilize the full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) if they so choose.

Our full salary cap preview for the Grizzlies can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Jontay Porter, team option: $1,517,981

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

None

Two-Way Contracts:

John Konchar (expiring)
Yuta Watanabe (expiring)

Free Agents:

Josh Jackson (Bird; fourth-year restriction)
Anthony Tolliver (Non-Bird)
De’Anthony Melton (RFA; Early Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

None

Second Round:

No. 40 overall pick

The Grizzlies finally conveyed the first-round pick they owed to Boston as a result of a 2015 Jeff Green trade. It was protected multiple times and would have been protected again in 2020 if it had landed in the top six, but it came in at No. 14.

Memphis traded its own second-round pick (No. 44) to Chicago but acquired the Suns’ second-rounder (No. 40) in last July’s De’Anthony Melton/Jevon Carter swap.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What role do the Grizzlies envision for Justise Winslow?

The Grizzlies got a head-start on their offseason at the 2020 trade deadline when they acquired Winslow in a three-team, seven-player trade with Miami and Minnesota.

Because the Grizzlies had to take on two pricey multiyear contracts in addition to Winslow’s as part of that deal, it eliminated any chance they had of creating cap room this fall, changing the look of the coming offseason.

The organization’s willingness to give up its 2020 cap room by taking on a pair of unwanted contracts signals its fondness for Winslow, who missed most of the 2019/20 campaign due to back and hip issues. While his injury history isn’t particularly encouraging, the former 10th overall pick is still just 24 years old, and the comments out of Memphis following February’s trade suggest the team views him as a foundational piece.

With Winslow on track to return for the start of the ’20/21 season, the Grizzlies will have to come up with a plan for how they want to use him. Some of his best games as a pro came when the Heat moved him into more of a ball-handling role, making him their de facto point guard.

Winslow isn’t going to become the primary ball-handler for a Grizzlies team that features Ja Morant, but does the team view him as someone who could run the second unit? Or will Memphis prefer to keep him on the wing, in what would be his more traditional position? Answering those questions will help determine how the Grizzlies approach the offseason and fill out their bench.

2. Will the Grizzlies re-sign De’Anthony Melton and/or Josh Jackson?

The Grizzlies don’t have any core players hitting the free agent market this fall, but Melton emerged as a solid contributor off the bench and Jackson showed a little upside after eventually being promoted from the G League. Since Melton is a combo guard and Jackson spent most of his time at small forward, Winslow’s role could dictate how aggressive Memphis is in attempting to re-sign either player.

Melton should be the first priority. He’s a talented perimeter defender who had the best net rating (+5.1) of any of the Grizzlies’ full-season rotation players. At age 22, with just two years of experience under his belt, he has plenty of room to improve, and Memphis will have the ability to match any reasonable offer for him, since he’ll be a restricted free agent.

ESPN’s Bobby Marks projects a three-year contract in the $18MM range for Melton, which I think would be a good deal for the Grizzlies — he’d be movable at that price if the team decides in a year or two that he’s not part of the long-term plan.

If his cost exceeds that figure, Memphis will have to be careful. In Morant, Tyus Jones, and possibly Winslow, the team already has several ball-handlers, and Melton isn’t a strong enough shooter to effectively space the floor when he’s playing off the ball, so investing too heavily in him based on his defensive abilities would come with some risk.

As for Jackson, he made positive strides over the course of the season with the Memphis Hustle and later with the Grizzlies, but he still wasn’t close to delivering on the potential that made him the No. 4 pick in the 2017 draft. While Memphis would probably welcome the chance to continue his development on a minimum-salary contract, I’d be surprised if the team went much higher than that to retain him.

3. Will the Grizzlies be active on the trade market again?

Executive VP Zach Kleiman and the Grizzlies’ new-look front office made some of the most impressive and creative trades of the 2020 offseason. They cashed in their Mike Conley stock, moved up in the draft to select Brandon Clarke, acquired a lightly-protected future first-round pick from the Warriors for helping them move Andre Iguodala, and turned Chandler Parsons‘ oversized expiring contract into two expiring deals that could be moved more easily.

While I didn’t like the Grizzlies’ deadline acquisition of Winslow quite as much, the team did well to flip Iguodala – and Jae Crowder‘s expiring deal – for a potentially valuable asset after getting a first-rounder for taking him on just seven months earlier.

With no cap room available this fall, it may be a quiet offseason in Memphis, especially compared to Kleiman’s first summer running the show. However, if the Grizzlies do make any sort of splash, it’s likely to happen on the trade market rather than in free agency.

Without control of their own 2020 first-round pick, the Grizzlies’ assets are somewhat limited, but Gorgui Dieng‘s $17MM expiring contract could help grease the wheels if the team has any targets any mind. And once the draft is over, any of Memphis’ future first-round picks – including the future Utah first-rounder the team controls – would be movable.

I don’t expect the Grizzlies do anything drastic on the trade market this fall, but Kleiman has shown a willingness to be active, so the possibility can’t be ruled out.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Who Will Win Lakers/Nuggets Series?

September 17th, 2020 at 2:42pm CST by Luke Adams

When the Nuggets were down 3-1 to Utah in the first round of the postseason, the idea that they’d eventually appear in the Western Conference Finals seemed like a pipe dream. The same was true when they fell behind the Clippers 3-1 in the second round.

Having improbably survived both of those series, the Nuggets will once again take on an underdog role as they prepare for the next round of the playoffs, but they’ve come to embrace that role.

Among the four teams still active in the postseason, Jamal Murray is the second-leading playoff scorer, with 27.1 PPG on a red-hot .502/.491/.913 shooting line. Nikola Jokic has arguably been even better, complementing his 25.4 PPG (.515/.440/.830 shooting) with 10.8 RPG and 6.0 APG.

While no Nugget besides Murray or Jokic is averaging more than 11.1 PPG in the postseason, the club’s supporting cast has stepped up when needed. Michael Porter Jr. and Gary Harris have been reliable from beyond the arc and have the team’s best playoff net ratings among rotation players, while Jerami Grant and Paul Millsap have also provided Denver with good minutes.

Still, the Nuggets have a challenging task ahead of them as they look to upset the top-seeded Lakers. They’ll enter the series as +420 underdogs, per BetOnline.ag, which means you could win $420 if you risk $100 on Denver to advance to the NBA Finals. It’s hard to find any experts willing to pick the Nuggets in the Western Finals, and that extends to rival team employees too. Josh Robbins of The Athletic spoke to a coach, executive, and scout about the series, and all three picked the Lakers to win in either five or six games.

Like Denver, Los Angeles has leaned heavily on its two stars in the postseason, with Anthony Davis and LeBron James combining for 54.2 PPG, 21.2 RPG, and 12.9 APG through the first two rounds. Jokic, Millsap, and Grant will do their best to slow down that frontcourt duo, but they’ll only be able to do so much.

As is the case for the Nuggets, no third Lakers player has stepped up as a major scoring threat, but Rajon Rondo had a very effective series vs. Houston, with 10.6 PPG, 7.0 APG, 4.6 RPG, and 2.0 SPG. Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are chipping in with secondary scoring, and Markieff Morris and Danny Green had the club’s best on/off-court splits during the second round.

What do you think? Do the Nuggets have a chance at upsetting another L.A. team or will the Lakers do what the Clippers couldn’t and end Denver’s run here? How many games do you expect this series to last? And do you expect the winner of the Western Finals to ultimately claim this year’s NBA championship?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Community Shootaround: All-NBA Format, Snubs

September 16th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The league announced its three All-NBA squads for the 2019/20 season earlier today, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James leading the way as the only two unanimous First Team selections.

While the First Team looked exactly as expected, there were some mild surprises on the next two teams. For instance, I didn’t expect to see Pascal Siakam on the Second Team over Third Team forward Jayson Tatum, who was having a stronger season even before March 11, in my opinion.

While I thought Siakam’s contributions to the Raptors were weighed a bit too heavily, I would’ve liked to find room on the Third Team for his teammate Kyle Lowry. Lowry’s box-score numbers weren’t nearly as splashy as Russell Westbrook‘s, but the Raptors guard was a more well-rounded, two-way contributor who was arguably more important than Siakam to the success of the No. 2 seed in the East.

It also would have been good to see Bucks wing Khris Middleton recognized for his career year with a spot on the Third Team, though I’d have a hard time removing Jimmy Butler – the Heat’s only All-NBA representative – or Ben Simmons, who was one of the league’s best defensive players this season.

Middleton’s candidacy raises an interesting question. His 10 Second Team votes and 52 Third Team votes earned him 82 overall points, which exceeded Simmons’ total (61) and Westbrook’s (56). Because Middleton received his votes primarily as a forward rather than a guard, he missed out on an All-NBA spot.

The positional aspect of the All-NBA vote has increasingly become something of a fly in the ointment as the league transitions into a more positionless style of game. Ball-dominant players like James, Luka Doncic, and Simmons could theoretically be considered either guards or forwards, as could wings like Butler and Middleton. Anthony Davis, meanwhile, could easily have been listed as a forward since he typically started alongside JaVale McGee in Los Angeles, but he was voted in as the First Team’s center.

Could it be time for the NBA to revamp All-NBA voting to allow media members to simply select the 15 best players in the league? After all, there’s already a precedent in the All-Rookie teams, which don’t require voters to list players by position. Even a half-measure like All-Star voting, which now breaks down players into two groups – guards and frontcourt players – could be an improvement.

We want to hear what you think. Did voters get it right with their 15 picks, or did you feel there were one or two glaring snubs? Going forward, would you like to see the league tweak the All-NBA format to loosen restrictions on positions or eliminate them entirely?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Diamond Stone Mulling Offers In China

September 16th, 2020 at 9:01am CST by JD Shaw

Former Clippers center Diamond Stone is in discussions with multiple teams in the Chinese Basketball Association on a potential deal, agent Jerry Dianis told Hoops Rumors.

Stone is expected to finalize his decision on which team to sign with in the near future, Dianis said.

Stone, a 6’10” Maryland product, was drafted with the No. 40 pick in 2016 and holds several years of professional experience. After a brief stint with the Clippers in 2016/17, he was acquired by the Hawks in a three-team July trade, getting waived three weeks later. He also spent time with the Bulls in training camp that fall.

Stone has made past NBA G League stops with the Windy City Bulls, Salt Lake City Stars, Iowa Wolves, and most recently the Rio Grande Valley Vipers. The 23-year-old former McDonald’s All-American has averaged 13.3 points and 5.6 rebounds across 77 G League games (19.5 MPG), proving his worth on both ends of the court.

Several players have opted to scan the market overseas with uncertainty surrounding the NBA G League next season, according to sources. To this point, the NBA hasn’t released official 2020/21 plans for either of its leagues amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. The league has reportedly locked in a date for the 2020 draft, however, which is set to be held on Nov. 18.

Poll: Who Will Win Celtics/Heat Series?

September 15th, 2020 at 2:58pm CST by Luke Adams

The Celtics and the Heat weren’t necessarily the teams that most fans and league observers expected to square off in the Eastern Finals this season, but the conference’s No. 3 and No. 5 seeds will fight for the right to play in the NBA Finals after knocking off the top two clubs in the East, Milwaukee and Toronto.

It’s a fascinating matchup, and one with no obvious favorite. The oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag currently list the Celtics at -137 for the series, meaning you’d have to risk $137 on a bet to win $100. That makes the Heat the slight underdogs at +118.

However, the Heat were the more impressive of the two teams in the second round, dispatching the top-seeded Bucks with relative ease in a five-game series. Miami held Giannis Antetokounmpo reasonably in check until he was sidelined with an ankle injury. And Jimmy Butler led a balanced offensive attack that saw four players – Butler, Goran Dragic, Bam Adebayo, and Jae Crowder – average at least 15 PPG, while Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Kelly Olynyk stretched the floor.

The Heat’s 113.0 offensive rating was second among the eight teams in the second round, behind only the Lakers, and their 106.6 defensive rating was the best of any team not involved in the Boston/Toronto series. Miami’s play in that impressive second-round win is a big reason why 11 of 22 experts at ESPN.com, including Bobby Marks, Tim MacMahon, and Ramona Shelburne, are picking the Heat to knock off the Celtics and make the NBA Finals.

The Celtics won’t be an easy out by any means though. Boston’s offense is a little more well-rounded than Milwaukee’s attack, with a number of players handling play-making responsibilities — if Kemba Walker doesn’t have it going, as was the case in the last two games of the second round against Toronto, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and even Marcus Smart can step up and shoulder the bulk of the scoring duties.

And while the Bucks had the NBA’s best defense during the regular season, the Heat will be tasked in the Eastern Finals with solving the defense that has ranked first overall during the postseason so far. The Celtics’ defensive rating in the playoffs is 101.9, including an eye-popping 100.3 mark in their seven games vs. the Raptors. Underrated center Daniel Theis helps anchor the unit, which is versatile, switchable, and features several dangerous perimeter defenders in Smart, Tatum, and Brown.

With Game 1 of the series set to tip off in a matter of hours, we want you to weigh in with your two cents. Who do you think will win this series? The Celtics or the Heat? How many games do you expect it take? And do you think either club has a legit shot to win the NBA Finals?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to explain your pick!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns

September 15th, 2020 at 1:46pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

The Suns’ cap outlook will depend on which direction they want to go with their roster. They currently project to have $87.5MM in guaranteed money on their books for eight players and a first-round pick, so renouncing or cutting everyone else could result in about $19MM in space.

However, retaining non-guaranteed players like Cameron Payne ($1.98MM) and Elie Okobo ($1.67MM) would cut into that space slightly. So would exercising a $5MM team option for Frank Kaminsky. And attempting to re-sign Dario Saric and/or Aron Baynes, who each have $10MM cap holds, could result in Phoenix remaining over the cap.

If the Suns use cap room, they’ll be able to supplement it with the room exception ($4.77MM). If they remain over the cap, they’ll have the full mid-level exception (about $9.3MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.6MM) available.

Our full salary cap preview for the Suns can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Frank Kaminsky, team option: $5,005,350
Cameron Payne, team option: $1,977,011
- Note: Payne’s salary would only be guaranteed for $25K if his option is exercised.
Cheick Diallo, team option: $1,824,003

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Elie Okobo ($1,663,861)

Two-Way Contracts:

Tariq Owens (expiring)

Free Agents:

Aron Baynes (Bird)
Dario Saric (RFA; Bird)
Jevon Carter (RFA; Early Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 10 overall pick

Second Round:

None

The Suns have their own first-round pick, but traded away their second-round pick (No. 40) to the Grizzlies in a salary-dump deal last July that sent Josh Jackson, Kyle Korver, and De’Anthony Melton to Memphis.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Was the Suns’ end-of-season success for real?

Although the Suns ultimately fell short of qualifying for a play-in tournament for the final postseason spot in the Western Conference, their summer success was one of the biggest early stories of the NBA’s restart.

Critics initially questioned why Phoenix – which entered the summer with a 26-39 record, good for 13th in the Western Conference – was even invited to Orlando, but no other team matched the Suns’ 8-0 record during seeding games.

That end-of-season run was a great sign for the franchise going forward, but it will be up to the Suns’ front office to properly evaluate what it means heading into the offseason. Overachieving teams can get into trouble when they weigh a previous season’s success too heavily and make win-now roster changes, ignoring the possibility of regression and assuming that success will carry over.

That doesn’t mean the Suns should dismiss the positive developments that took place during their summer run. The ongoing improvements made by cornerstone building blocks Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton are great signs for the organization, as are the strides made by young role players like Cameron Johnson and Mikal Bridges.

However, it would be dangerous to assume the roster is just one or two pieces away from contention or to pencil Phoenix in for a playoff spot in a competitive conference next season based on the team’s 8-0 summer. General manager James Jones and the Suns should focus on continuing to make sound decisions without skipping any steps or taking short-cuts in the roster-building process.

2. Will the Suns look to bring back their own players or create cap space?

The Suns’ determination of how seriously to take their summer results will extend to their free-agents-to-be and players with options, many of whom either outperformed expectations or were non-factors during that 8-0 stretch.

Veteran big man Aron Baynes, for instance, had a great season in Phoenix, establishing new career highs in PPG (11.5), RPG (5.6), 3PT% (.351), and a handful of other categories while providing solid defense. But he didn’t play at all during the summer as he recovered from the effects of a COVID-19 diagnosis. As the Suns evaluate whether to re-sign Baynes, will they weigh his full-season success more heavily than their unbeaten streak without him?

Fellow big man Frank Kaminsky is in a similar spot as Baynes — he had a decent season overall before being sidelined by a right knee injury, but struggled during the restart, playing sparingly and putting up just 3.7 PPG on .393/.167/1.000 shooting. As a result, it no longer seems all that likely that the Suns will pick up his $5MM option.

On the other hand, power forward Dario Saric thrived during the restart ahead of potential restricted free agency. He was the club’s third-leading scorer in seeding games, behind Booker and Ayton, with 14.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG, and a red-hot .574/.524/.879 shooting line. Similarly, Cameron Payne was a pleasant surprise on his minimum-salary contract, averaging 10.9 PPG and making 51.7% of his three-pointers in eight seeding games.

If the Suns opt to move on from all their free agents and players with non-guaranteed contracts, they could create approximately $19MM in cap room. But if they start exercising options or re-signing players, that room will disappear in a hurry — especially if Saric or Baynes are retained. Their cap holds exceed $10MM and it might take an offer in that neighborhood to re-sign them.

The Suns have been named as potential suitors for some of the summer’s top unrestricted free agents, including Fred VanVleet and Davis Bertans, but they can only realistically pursue those guys if they open up cap room. As ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Insider link) suggests, a more prudent approach to the offseason might see Phoenix retaining Saric and Baynes on short-term deals and using the $9.3MM mid-level exception to seek out another reliable rotation player on the free agent market.

3. Will Kelly Oubre or Ricky Rubio be traded?

There’s another route the Suns could go if they want to retain some of their free agents while also being a player for some of this offseason’s top free agents. Oubre is on an expiring $14.4MM contract, while Rubio has two years and $34.8MM left on his deal — both veterans could be intriguing chips in trade talks.

Oubre, who underwent surgery on a torn meniscus in his right knee on March 3, is another player who wasn’t in the Suns’ lineup during their hot summer stretch. Throw in the fact that he’ll reach free agency in 2021 and overlaps positionally with some young players on Phoenix’s roster and you can make a case that the team should consider gauging his value on the trade market.

Oubre is entering his age-25 season and was having his best season as a pro before injuring his knee, so he’d fit into the Suns’ long-term plans. But if there’s a player on the free agent market the team wants to go after, acquiring an asset in exchange for Oubre and clearing his $14MM+ salary would be one way to clear cap space.

Another way would be moving Rubio, though he might be a slightly harder sell, since he’s entering his age-30 season and has multiple years left on his contract. This seems like a longer shot to me, since we’re just a year removed from Rubio being the free agent target the Suns had to create cap room to pursue. But Marks suggests that moving the veteran point guard and a draft pick to a team with space (like the Hawks) would be a way to open up the room to go after VanVleet.

Jones and the Suns will have some options this offseason. It’ll just be a matter of deciding which players – either on the current roster or on the free agent market – the team wants to prioritize and which ones aren’t part of the franchise’s long-term vision.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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