Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included the teams most likely to be active before the trade deadline, the Pacers' search for a backup center, Jonathan Kuminga's future with the Warriors, the case for keeping the Pelicans' roster together and more!
The 2025 NBA trade deadline is still nearly two months away, but with more than a quarter of the season in the books and several dozen players set to become trade-eligible in a week, it's just a matter of time until negotiations between teams start to get more serious.
With that in mind, it's worth checking in on which clubs around the league will be looking to sell at this season's deadline.
It has gotten a little tougher to find in-season sellers in recent years. Before the NBA introduced the play-in tournament, it wouldn't be uncommon for a team hovering around the 11th or 12th spot in its conference to throw in the towel in February, recognizing that climbing into the top eight to earn a playoff spot probably isn't realistic.
Now, with 10 teams in each conference technically advancing to the "postseason" via the play-in tournament, that club holding the 11th or 12th seed is often less inclined to sell, given that it would only take a short winning streak for that club to re-enter the play-in picture.
Still, with several teams in rebuilding mode, a strong 2025 draft class on the horizon, and a handful of clubs potentially trying to hang onto protected draft picks, several prospective sellers are emerging as trade season approaches. In a two-part series, we'll take a closer look at which teams fit the bill and what percentage of their rosters they'll be willing to discuss with would-be contenders, breaking them up into four separate groups.
In part one today, we'll take a look at the two groups of teams who are most likely to be open for business when buyers come calling. Keep an eye out for part two later in the week.
We'll listen on anyone
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets, whose preseason over/under was widely set by oddsmakers at 19.5 wins, have been more competitive than expected -- at 10-13, they're already halfway to their projected win total. Still, given how the front office operated during the 2024 offseason, that hot start may actually make the team more - not less - motivated to sell.
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included RJ Barrett's omission from ESPN's 25 under 25 list, Josh Giddey's next contract, a possible new home for Dorian Finney-Smith, predictions for the next stage of the NBA Cup and more!
Ahead of October's deadline for rookie scale extensions, there were 24 players who were eligible to sign those contracts during the 2024 offseason. Eleven of those 24 did so, leaving 13 players who didn't get new deals and are now on track for restricted free agency in 2025.
A few of those 13 players were never legitimate candidates for rookie scale extensions. For instance, the Bulls weren't pushing to lock up Chris Duarte to a new deal. But there were several who reportedly had discussions with their respective teams and looked like they had a chance to sign contracts in October, such as Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga and Mavericks swingman Quentin Grimes.
We're not even six weeks into the regular season, but already the performances of several of those 13 players have impacted - for better or worse - what their contract discussions would look like if they were able to return to the negotiating table today.
Those 13 players aren't the only ones who will be eligible for restricted free agency next summer, but we're focusing on them today as we consider whether their stocks have risen or fallen since the preseason and what their next contracts might look like.
Over half of the 30 first-round picks in the 2025 NBA draft have been traded at some point in the past several years, but not all of those picks will actually change hands at the end of this season.
Many of those first-rounders were traded with some sort of protection language, meaning that if they fall in a certain range, the original team will keep its pick.
With that in mind, let's take a closer look at which of 2025's traded first-round picks project to change hands, which ones will likely stay put, and which ones figure to be the most valuable assets.
Protected picks unlikely to change hands
- Wizards' pick traded to Knicks (top-10 protected)
- Jazz's pick traded to Thunder (top-10 protected)
- Hornets' pick traded to Spurs (top-14 protected)
- Trail Blazers' pick traded to Bulls (top-14 protected)
Top-10 protection means the Wizards and Jazz could miss the playoffs and still be forced to surrender their first-round picks, but it looks like there's little chance of that happening. Washington (2-12) currently has the NBA's worst record and Utah (3-12) is tied for the second-worst mark.
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included a possible new home for Brandon Ingram, the Bulls' problems at power forward, Trail Blazers who might be on the move, the Cavaliers' playoff prospects and more!
A total of 20 NBA trades were completed during the 2021/22 season. That number dipped to 17 in '22/23 before jumping to a whopping 27 in '23/24.
While it's possible the number of in-season trades made between now and the 2025 trade deadline will match or surpass those totals, I expect it to be more difficult than ever this season for teams to find suitable trade partners and viable deals as they navigate the cap, tax, and aprons.
Fourteen NBA teams are currently operating in luxury tax territory. Nine of those teams are over the first tax apron and four of those nine are over the second apron too, significantly restricting the types of moves they're permitted to make.
Of the 16 non-tax clubs, seven are within $5MM of the luxury tax line and will likely do all they can to avoid surpassing that threshold. A total of 17 clubs (some in the tax and some not) face hard caps that could further limit their flexibility.
In other words, completing even a fairly straightforward deal could require some creativity, given the roadblocks that teams will have to work around on the trade market.
There's also another complicating factor for teams to consider, which we want to focus on today. In the space below, we'll take a closer look at how two forms of bonuses could impede trade scenarios this season, as well as identifying several top trade candidates with bonuses who are worth keeping an eye on.
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included whether Houston is the best spot for Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Pistons' options in speeding up their rebuild, a potential coaching change in New Orleans, the Bucks' early-season dilemma, a possible dark horse winner for the in-season tournament and more!
Hoops Rumors’ Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Topics included the Knicks' salary cap maneuverings, early-season favorites in the Eastern Conference, a surprising start in Brooklyn, Zion Williamson's latest injury issues, concerns about Giannis Antetokounmpo leaving Milwaukee and more!
Over half of the NBA's 30 teams face some sort of hard cap for the rest of the 2024/25 league year. A total of 14 clubs are hard-capped at the first tax apron ($178,132,000) as a result of moves they made on the trade market or in free agency, while three more are hard-capped at the second tax apron ($188,931,000).
Those teams won't be permitted to surpass their respective hard caps for any reason for the rest of '24/25, and it's entirely possible - likely, actually - that more clubs will join them on that list as they finalize in-season signings and trades in the coming months. Just a couple weeks ago, the Grizzlies became the 17th team to get hard-capped when they used a portion of their non-taxpayer mid-level exception to sign Scotty Pippen Jr.
[RELATED: How NBA Teams Become Hard-Capped]
However, in most cases, a hard cap doesn't actually serve as a material obstacle for a team. For instance, the Hornets are currently hard-capped at the first apron, but their team salary for apron purposes is more than $16MM below that threshold.
While the Hornets could take on some additional salary in a pre-deadline trade, it's extremely hard to imagine a scenario in which they surpass the luxury tax line ($170,814,000), let alone approach their $178MM+ hard cap. Certainly, Charlotte's front office should be aware of that hard cap over the course of the season, but it shouldn't be a front-of-mind concern that would prevent the team from pulling the trigger on any moves it realistically wants to make.
Not every team can afford to approach its hard cap like the Hornets though. For a handful of clubs, the hard cap will be a day-to-day consideration that affects a team's ability to sign a free agent, make a trade, or even carry a full 15-man roster.
Let's take a closer look at which teams have to be most aware of their hard caps over the course of the 2024/25 league year.