Hoops Rumors' Arthur Hill held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
Arthur took questions on possible Bulls trades, potential in-season coaching changes, the Thunder's top challenges in the West, the chances of a fire sale in Milwaukee, which veteran star might fit best in Houston, and more!
Roster continuity is typically viewed as a positive trait for NBA teams. It's not uncommon for players to express appreciation for the opportunity to spend multiple seasons getting comfortable with the same teammates rather than having to deal with significant personnel changes from year to year.
Still, it's roster turnover - rather than continuity - that draws the most headlines during the NBA offseason and generates the most hype entering the fall. That's why we spent way more time talking about teams like the Knicks and Sixers in the weeks and months leading up to opening night than we did discussing the Cavaliers, who added exactly one new player (rookie Jaylon Tyson) to the standard roster they carried into the end of last season.
There's no set formula to NBA success -- carrying over a significant number of players from last year's team doesn’t necessarily give a club a leg up entering a new season. But continuity was a signifier of success in 2023/24.
Of the seven teams who carried over at least 13 players (including two-ways) from their end-of-season rosters in 2022/23 to the start of the '23/24 season, five improved their records and a sixth equaled its win total from the previous season. The Grizzlies were the only exception, and they were hurt far more by injuries than they were by a lack of roster changes.
Many of the top candidates for veteran extensions this offseason have already signed new contracts.
While stars like Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo, and Donovan Mitchell finalized new deals shortly after the July moratorium lifted, there has been a steady stream of veteran extensions since then, with Joel Embiid, Jamal Murray, Jose Alvarado, T.J. McConnell, Terance Mann, Ivica Zubac, and Wendell Carter having all completed new contracts since the start of September.
In total, 18 veterans have signed extensions since the 2024/25 league year began, dwarfing the four rookie scale extensions that have been finalized during that same period.
As we wrote last week, there will likely be a small flurry of rookie scale extensions ahead of Monday's deadline. That may not be the case for veteran extensions, but there's reason to believe we could see some action on that front too.
For one, while the day before the regular season isn't the deadline for all veteran extensions - like it is for rookie scale extensions - it is the last day for an extension-eligible vet to work out a new deal if he has a contract (not an option year) for 2025/26. Those players will be ineligible for new deals during the season if they don't sign by Monday -- they would regain their eligibility next summer.
Players who are on expiring contracts or who hold options for 2025/26 (which could be declined as part of an extension agreement) will remain eligible to sign new deals all season, but some of those players may prefer to get something done before opening night in order to avoid the distraction of having their contract situation hanging over their head during the season.
In the space below, we'll take a look at three groups of players eligible for veteran extensions -- those who face an October 21 deadline, those who will remain eligible all season, and those who are good extension candidates but aren't expected to sign until at least 2025.
This is a sponsored post from BetterHelp.
What’s an important holiday you might not know about? World Mental Health Day on October 10th – encouraging all of us to talk about and take care of our mental health since 1992.
Athletes often experience high pressure, busy schedules, and exposure to harmful stigmas and stereotypes that can lead to mental health conditions or chronic stress and burnout.
If you’re an athlete, there are various ways you can practice self-care to improve your mental health.
Up to 35% of elite professional athletes are living with a mental illness, and student-athletes and those who participate in athletics for pleasure are also at risk. Below are statistics on the most common mental health conditions in athletes.
Eating disorders may be more common in athletes due to pervasive stereotypes about what an athlete’s body “should” look like. In addition, bullying or rejection from teammates, coaches, and team supporters can lead to individuals experiencing fear of shame or the loss of their athlete status if they gain weight, lose muscle, or experience bodily changes.
One study found that the prevalence of depression in athletes is around 15.6% to 21%. The same study reported that athletes who were at a higher risk of depressive disorders were those with sports injuries, those who had been terminated from their career as athletes, and those rated poorly in performance. Depression can lead to a higher suicide risk in athletes, so therapy is often recommended.
Research by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) found that almost 85% of certified athletic trainers believe anxiety disorders are an issue for student-athletes. Other studies report that sports can lead to high levels of stress and pressure, which can cause anxiety.
According to studies, medication and alcohol misuse are the most common forms of substance use in athletes. Athletes may self-medicate due to other mental health challenges, physical pain, or difficulty sleeping. In addition, “sports culture” can sometimes lead to social pressure to drink or take other substances. Breaking down stigmas on a societal and team level can be a way to reduce these challenges.
If you’re an athlete, whether you practice for fun or are in an elite team, there are a few self-care tips you can consider.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), mental healthcare can reduce the risk of physical illnesses like heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. To prioritize your mental health, pay attention to what your emotions tell you, learn about self-care, take breaks when needed, and address your stress when it arises.
Stigmas, harmful practices, and misconceptions are common in athletic communities. Below are some ways to challenge these:
Having a support system can significantly reduce mental health challenges, leading to increased wellness and quality of life and a reduced risk of physical illness. Nurture your support system by ensuring you spend quality time with those you love outside of a sports context.
Therapy can be an effective tool for reducing stress and the chances of mental burnout in athletes. For those facing barriers to in-person therapy, online platforms like BetterHelp may be more accessible. Through an online platform, athletes can access resources like support groups and worksheets and weekly therapy with a provider via phone, video, or live chat.
Studies show that online therapy can be effective in treating conditions commonly seen in athletes, like anxiety and depression. In one study, online therapy was found to be more effective in symptom reduction for these conditions than face-to-face therapy.
For those who are struggling, mental health treatment may be beneficial. Seeking help is not a sign of weakness but strength, and over 41.7 million US adults see a therapist. By talking to a professional, you can develop ways to cope productively with your challenges and potentially receive referrals to other support options, such as psychiatry or support groups.
Four NBA players have signed rookie scale extensions so far in 2024, but if recent history is any indication, that number should at least double - and perhaps triple - by October 21, which is the deadline for those deals to be completed.
In each of the past four offseasons from 2020-23, at least 10 rookie scale extensions have been signed, including a record-setting 14 a year ago.
And while it's not uncommon for the most lucrative of those extensions to be finalized early in the offseason - like the maximum-salary deals for Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Franz Wagner were this summer - many negotiations go down to the wire. In each of those last four years, at least six rookie scale extensions have been completed in October (or, in the case of the COVID-delayed 2020 offseason, December).
Based on those figures, it seems safe to assume news will break within the next 10 days about a few more rookie scale extension agreements, but which of the players eligible to sign those contracts are the best bets to actually get something done? That's the question we're considering today.
Listed below are the 20 players still eligible for rookie scale extensions, ranked by the likelihood that they'll finalize new deals by October 21. We're starting with the least likely candidates and working our way up to the most likely.
To clarify, this list isn't ranking these players by value -- the No. 1 player isn't necessarily the one who should get the most lucrative contract. We're just using our best judgment to predict which of them are most likely to have new contracts in hand by opening night, allowing them to avoid going through the restricted free agency process in July 2025.
Let's dive in...
20. Chris Duarte (Bulls)
Never say never, but it's pretty hard to envision a scenario in which Duarte signs a new contract with the Bulls before the season begins. He was sent from Sacramento to Chicago in the DeMar DeRozan sign-and-trade for salary purposes after two disappointing seasons in Indiana and Sacramento in which he averaged just 5.6 points per game on 37.4% shooting (32.9% on three-pointers). Duarte showed real promise in his rookie year in 2021/22 (13.1 PPG, .369 3PT%) and if he can recapture that form, he'd be worth retaining beyond the coming season, but now isn't the time to commit to him.
The new rules in place this season for NBA teams operating above either tax apron dictate that those clubs are prohibited - in most cases - from taking back more salary than they send out in a trade.
That restriction will make it difficult for two teams operating above the apron to make a trade with one another, but the Knicks and Timberwolves provided a blueprint with this week's Karl-Anthony Towns blockbuster for one way it can happen -- find a third team to take on some extra salary.
In the Towns trade, the Hornets acquired approximately $6.8MM in salary from the Knicks without trading away any themselves, which allowed both Minnesota and New York to send out more salary than they took back in the deal. Charlotte received three second-round picks - two from the Knicks and one from the Wolves - for their troubles.
That's not the only way for two apron teams to trade with one another, but it's the most straightforward path, particularly in bigger deals like the Towns one. With that in mind, it's worth considering which teams around the NBA are the best candidates to be the next Hornets, acting as facilitators in deals involving two clubs facing apron-related restrictions.
There are essentially three characteristics that make a team an ideal candidate to be a third-party facilitator in this sort of trade:
We've spent much of the offseason discussing the roster moves that an NBA team operating over the first or second tax apron can and can't make, and why it makes sense for a front office to do its best to stay under one or both of those aprons if it's in position to do so.
So it came as a bit of a surprise when one of the top free agents left on the market - Nassir Little - agreed to a contract with the Heat, who had been carrying 14 players on standard contracts and were operating approximately $1.64MM below the second apron line. After all, the expectation had been that Miami would stick with a 14-man roster to open the regular season in order to remain below the second apron -- a minimum-salary deal for Little (or any other player) would push them above that threshold.
Now, there are a couple points worth clarifying on Little's contract.
First, his one-year, minimum-salary deal is fully non-guaranteed, with Exhibit 9 language, Hoops Rumors has confirmed. That means that the forward's salary doesn't currently count against the salary cap, and if he's waived before the season begins, the Heat's cap situation will be right back where it was before the signing, about $1.64MM away from the second apron.
Even if Little makes the team, he'd be paid by the day during the season, so if he's waived in the first month or two, Miami would be stuck with only a partial cap hit and would be able to move back below the second apron.
The second point is more complex and it's the one we'll focus on at length today. Let's say the Heat decide they want to keep Little on their opening night roster, then he earns a regular rotation role in the first couple months of the season, making himself indispensable and forcing Miami to guarantee his full-season salary.
In that scenario, the Heat would go from operating under the second apron to operating approximately $449K over it. However, for the most part, their proximity to the apron wouldn't actually change the moves they can and can't make during the season in any material way.
With the start of most NBA training camps just 11 days away (and even sooner than that for the Celtics and Nuggets), the 2024 offseason is nearing its end.
Before we put a bow on the summer of 2024, we have one more installment of our "Offseason Observations" to share today, following up on similar articles published in July and August.
Here are some of the under-the-radar cap- and CBA-related stories I'm keeping an eye on as teams around the league prepare for their media days and training camps.
The disparity between Exhibit 10 bonuses
As we've written many teams in recent weeks, when a player signs an Exhibit 10 contract with an NBA team, is waived before the regular season begins, and then spends at least 60 days with his club's G League affiliate, he's eligible to earn a bonus worth up to $77.5K.
We always clarify that those bonuses can be worth "up to" $77.5K because that's the maximum possible Exhibit 10 bonus in 2024/25 (up from $75K a year ago, having increased at the same rate as the salary cap). But not every player who signs an Exhibit 10 contract is able to negotiate that maximum bonus.
The NBA's current Collective Bargaining Agreement went into effect fairly recently, in 2023, and many of the more punitive restrictions on tax apron teams weren't implemented until 2024, but we're already feeling the impact of the new CBA on the league's highest-spending clubs.
The Celtics, Bucks, Suns, and Timberwolves, who are operating above the second tax apron in 2024/25, were unable to sign any outside free agents for more than the veteran's minimum this offseason. They've also faced significant limitations on the trade market, including an inability to aggregate salaries, trade cash, use previous trade exceptions, or take back more salary than they send out.
Those restrictions have been a major factor in the clubs' relative inactivity on the trade market. Boston and Milwaukee are two of just four teams around the NBA who haven't made any trades this summer. The Lakers, another one of those four teams who haven't made a deal, are operating just a hair below the second apron).
Meanwhile, of the four second-apron teams, the Suns are the only one to have acquired a player on an NBA contract in an offseason trade. That deal - David Roddy for E.J. Liddell - was a straightforward salary dump that ultimately resulted in the newly acquired player (Liddell) being waived for luxury tax savings, which serves as an important reminder -- on top of their roster-building limitations, those apron teams will be on the hook for substantial tax payments at season's end.
Still, as impactful as the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement has already been on some of the NBA's most expensive rosters, some of the toughest penalties being imposed on the league's biggest spenders are still to come in 2025. Today, we're taking a closer look at a couple more notable ways in which the current CBA will complicate teams' dynasty-building efforts in the coming years by further disincentivizing big spending.
Let's dive in...
Most of the 29 trades completed so far this offseason by NBA teams have been made with financial considerations in mind. In some cases, those considerations were obvious -- when the Timberwolves sent Wendell Moore to Detroit, the Nuggets dealt Reggie Jackson to Charlotte, or the Grizzlies traded Ziaire Williams to Brooklyn, saving money was the primary motivating factor.
For other trades, cap savings were just one part of the equation. For example, Portland's July deal with the Wizards was primarily about acquiring Deni Avdija, but by including Malcolm Brogdon in their package for Avdija, the Trail Blazers were able to duck out of luxury tax territory. The same is true of the Hawks in the Dejounte Murray trade, which reduced their team salary for 2024/25 and helped them sneak below the tax line.
While some teams have already made their cost-cutting moves for '24/25, there are others who are worth keeping an eye on this fall and winter. Based on their proximity to the luxury tax line or the tax aprons, they look like potential candidates to pursue deals that would shed some salary.
Let's take a closer look at some of those teams...
