Max Contract Scenarios For Carmelo, LeBron
We’re still more than eight months away from next summer’s free agent period, but as yesterday’s story on Carmelo Anthony exhibited, reports on upcoming decisions for players like Anthony, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Kobe Bryant figure to come early and often throughout the season.
Of those potential star free agents, at least two – Carmelo and LeBron – are strong bets to land maximum salary contracts. It’s an outside possibility for both Wade and Bryant as well, especially given their histories with their respective teams, but the best days for both players seem to be behind them, making it unlikely that they’ll continue to receive raises on their current max deals.
In any case, as we’ve discussed before, not all max salaries are created equal, and depending on whether a player re-signs with his own club or joins a new team, the total amount of a max deal will vary considerably. As such, it’s worth examining the scenarios facing Carmelo and LeBron next summer.
Let’s start with the Knicks forward. Anthony has a player option on his contract for 2014/15, so there’s no guarantee he opts out next summer, since he could theoretically maximize his earnings by exercising the option and signing a max deal in 2015. Still, his latest comments have strongly suggested he’ll hit free agency in 2014, so for our purposes, we’ll assume he plans to turn down his player option.
In that scenario, Anthony could re-sign with the Knicks (assuming, of course, that he’s not traded during the season) for up to five years with 7.5% raises, or with another team for up to four years with 4.5% raises. His maximum starting salary would be worth 105% of the $21,388,954 he’s earning this season. Here are the two max contract scenarios for Carmelo:
It’s not hard to see why Carmelo intends to become a free agent rather than signing another in-season extension with the Knicks. Veteran extensions can total no more than four years, including the current season. So if Anthony were to re-up with the Knicks in February when he becomes extension-eligible, his new deal would only keep him under contract through 2016/17, wiping out the $56MM+ in guaranteed money he’d get in the last two seasons of the scenario detailed above.
If Anthony were to play out his current contract and become a free agent in 2015, his potential maximum salaries would be a little higher. We won’t get too far into the specifics on that scenario for now, but he’d be eligible to earn about $140.9MM on a five-year deal and $104.6MM on a four-year pact.
Now let’s turn our attention to James, who, like Anthony, doesn’t necessarily have to become a free agent in 2014, since the reigning MVP will actually have two more years remaining on his current pact as of next summer. But as we did for Carmelo, we’ll assume James opts for free agency, if only to secure a longer-term deal with his current team.
LeBron is unquestionably the NBA’s best player, but won’t be paid like it, since his decision to take a discount to join the Heat will continue to affect his maximum salaries going forward. James is making $2MM+ less than Anthony is in 2013/14, with a salary of $19,067,500. That’s actually also less than the NBA-wide max of $19,181,750 for a player with 10+ years of experience (Carmelo was able to exceed that max due to CBA rules).
Because his current salary is less than the allowable maximum, we’re not 100% sure what LeBron’s maximum starting salary will be. If that league-wide max of $19,181,750 increases significantly next July, it will represent James’ max starting salary. But if we figure it will only increase slightly, then we can assume LBJ’s max starting salary will be 105% of $19,067,500. Here’s what his contract scenarios would look like in that case:
For completion’s sake, we’ll note that if LeBron opts in for 2014/15, then becomes a free agent in 2015, he’d be eligible to earn five- and four-year totals of about $124.3MM and $92.3MM, respectively. If he were to play out his full contract and hit free agency in 2016, those two totals would increase to about $133.5MM and $99.1MM, respectively.
As I noted at the top, James and Anthony represent the two strongest bets to land maximum salaries in free agency next summer. Wade’s knee issues making him a risky long-term investment, while Chris Bosh likely isn’t a max player anymore. Luol Deng, Rudy Gay, and Pau Gasol fall into that boat too, and Dirk Nowitzki has indicated that he’d take a discount to help the Mavs land a marquee free agent.
Perhaps the most interesting name of the potential max players is Kobe. It remains to be seen how he’ll recover from his Achilles injury, and even if he comes back strong, it’s safe to say he’ll be in line for a pay cut next summer, since he’s currently earning more than $30MM. But just for fun, let’s suppose he did receive maximum-salary offers in free agency. Here’s what his max scenarios would look like:
Of course, to reiterate, there’s no way the Lakers are making Bryant a $183MM offer next summer, and I can’t imagine there will be many teams with the cap space and the desire to offer a 36-year-old Kobe a $32MM salary. I think it’s far more likely we’ll see his salary reduced by $15-20MM, rather than increased. Still, Kobe’s maximum possible contract shows just how large NBA salaries can get for a player who has been earning the max for his entire career.
Eastern Notes: Iverson, Monroe, Bucks, Heat
As the Heat prepare to face the Nets for the first time since Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce headed to Brooklyn, LeBron James discussed the ex-Celtics who were critical of Ray Allen signing with Miami a year ago.
“I think the first thing I thought was ‘Wow, Ray got killed for leaving Boston and now these guys are leaving Boston,'” James said, according to Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com. “I think it’s OK, I didn’t mind it. But there were a couple guys who basically (expletive) on Ray for leaving and now they’re leaving. That’s the nature of our business, man. I don’t know what Boston was going through at the end of the day. I know Ray had to make the best decision for him and his family and his career. Doc [Rivers], KG and Paul did that as well. You can’t criticize someone who does something that’s best for their family.”
As we look forward to a preseason matchup that could be an early preview of an Eastern Conference playoff series, let’s round up a few other items from around the East….
- Confirming that Allen Iverson will indeed announce his retirement later this month, NBA.com’s David Aldridge reports that the former MVP may wind up taking a post-playing job with the Sixers.
- Nothing has changed on the Greg Monroe front, according to Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press, who writes that the Pistons and Monroe are still highly unlikely to reach an agreement on a long-term extension within the next couple weeks.
- When it became clear that Brandon Jennings wasn’t interested in re-signing in Milwaukee, the Bucks got what they could for him, and according to Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, a couple of those young players who came over in the deal with the Pistons are looking good so far this fall.
- Even with Greg Oden suffering a setback and Chris Andersen dealing with a foot issue, the Heat aren’t likely to keep a player like Justin Hamilton on their roster, says Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel, pointing to Joel Anthony as the club’s insurance policy.
Southeast Notes: Magic, Oden, Cole, Wizards
The Magic have 19 players under contract, but only 12 fully guaranteed deals on their books, meaning there could be a couple regular-season roster spots up for grabs in Orlando. And as Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel notes, camp invitees Solomon Jones and Mickell Gladness took advantage of their audition on Monday against the Mavericks — Jones scored 11 points and grabbed eight boards, while Gladness blocked six shots in just 16 minutes of action.
As Jones and Gladness continue to compete for NBA jobs, let’s check out a few other items from around the Southeast Division….
- One of the reasons Greg Oden chose to sign with the Heat over a host of other NBA suitors was because Miami doesn’t have any motivation to rush him onto the court, so a fast start for the Heat this season will help keep the team from hastening his return, writes Ethan Skolnick of Bleacher Report.
- In his latest mailbag, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel suggests Norris Cole‘s performance in 2013/14 could significantly affect the Heat‘s decisions at the point guard position. Cole is the only Miami player on a guaranteed contract beyond this season, while Mario Chalmers will hit unrestricted free agency next summer.
- With a new five-year max extension under his belt, John Wall talks to Howard Beck of Bleacher Report about his increasing expectations for the Wizards‘ coming season and for the long term in Washington.
- Michael Lee of the Washington Post takes a look at Pops Mensah-Bonsu‘s uphill battle to regain a spot on an NBA roster. Mensah-Bonsu is currently in camp with the Wizards.
Odds & Ends: Tanner, Wizards, Teague, Heat
Agent Jim Tanner, who had previously been a partner at Williams & Connolly LLP, is opening up his own sports and entertainment management business, according to Scott Soshnick of Bloomberg Sports. Tanner will be taking all of his clients, including Tim Duncan, Ray Allen, and Jeremy Lin, with him to the newly-created Tandem Sports & Entertainment. You can view our full list of the new agency’s clients right here.
Here are a few more odds and ends from around the NBA:
- There hasn’t been much playing time available for the Wizards‘ camp invitees in the preseason, writes J. Michael of CSNWashington.com. Considering Washington already has 15 players on guaranteed contracts, the team’s non-guaranteed players will likely just be waived before opening night.
- Following up on a report that the Timberwolves had shown interest in Marquis Teague, Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 Twin Cities tweets that David Kahn may have had interest in the young point guard, but Flip Saunders hasn’t inquired with the Bulls.
- The Heat‘s opening night roster may look fairly set, but Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel cautions that the team usually keeps its options open for at least one meaningful in-season move.
- Keith Schlosser of Ridiculous Upside has the details on a handful of prospects set to enter the D-League’s draft.
Eastern Notes: Biyombo, Diogu, Beasley
A few notes from around the Eastern Conference.
- Bobcats center Bismack Biyombo is not worried about the team picking up his team option by October 31, reports RealGm.com’s Shams Charania.
- Knicksjournal.com’s Keith Schlosser asks what it will take for Ike Diogu to make the Knicks final roster.
- Sun-Sentinel.com’s Ira Winderman examines the possibility of Michael Beasley infiltrating Miami’s rotation.
Southeast Notes: Jefferson, Bosh, Oden, Magic
The Bobcats made their first big splash in free agency this summer by signing Al Jefferson to a 3-year, $40.5MM contract to helm the post for one of the league’s most disappointing teams over the last half decade. The Bobcats announced today that Jefferson sprained his ankle against Miami in last night’s preseason action, and will be in a walking boot for several days:
“[Jefferson] suffered a sprained right ankle in the second half of last night’s preseason game vs. Miami. X-rays taken at the arena proved to be normal. As a precaution, Jefferson is expected to be in a walking boot for several days in an effort to contain the swelling and not put any pressure on the joint. Once out of the walking boot, he will be re-evaluated and will begin the rehab process.”
Here are a few more notes tonight from around the Southeast division, including more on Jefferson:
- Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer tweets that Jefferson was in extensive pain and because it’s preseason the Bobcats are likely to treat the sprain conservatively so as not to endanger the health of their new big man.
- With so much speculation about what LeBron James and Dwyane Wade will do this coming summer when they can opt-out of their contracts with the Heat and become unrestricted free agents, Chris Bosh will have the same opportunity. But he’s grown comfortable with his role on the team as the third wheel of a champion, writes Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel.
- Winderman also reports that Magic CEO Alex Martins said before their preseason matchup against the Heat, that he’d like the Magic to have their own D-League affiliate in Jacksonville.
- Sources say Heat center Greg Oden will be cleared to practice next week, and could see action for the first time in four years in one of the Heat’s final preseason games, reports Michael Wallace of ESPN (by way of the Toronto Sun).
- Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel profiles Magic camp invitees, Mickell Gladness, Manny Harris, Solomon Jones and Kris Joseph. None of the four will see a dime unless they make the Magic’s final roster, which means overcoming the long odds against them, Robbins adds.
Winderman On Stoudemire, Bosh, D-League
The Knicks aren’t drawing much attention as a potential landing spot for LeBron James next summer, unlike in 2010, when New York cleared cap space for LeBron and wound up signing Amar’e Stoudemire instead. But Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel believes that if Stoudemire musters a bounce-back season, the Knicks have at least a slight chance of trading his hefty contract and again opening up room for LeBron. It would be a shock if the Knicks found a taker for Stoudemire, whom they owe more money than anyone else on their roster, but considering the Hawks unloaded Joe Johnson last year with nearly $90MM left on his deal, you never know. Here’s more from Winderman:
- Many NBA players in Chris Bosh‘s circumstances would see next summer’s potential free agency as a chance to bolt and become a team’s No. 1 option, but Bosh is comfortable as the third man in the Heat‘s hierarchy. “The thing I like about this, is, of course I’m not the guy, I’m not the number-one option,” Bosh said. “That gives me creativity to be able to take my position and mold it into what I want to do.”
- If the Magic establish a D-League team in Jacksonville or another location close to Orlando, it could make it easier for the Heat to move their affiliate from Sioux Falls to Estero, Fla., where a D-League-caliber arena already exists.
- Michael Beasley‘s casual approach turned off many around the NBA, but he insists he’s taking his current opportunity with the Heat more seriously than when he joined the team as the No. 2 overall pick in 2008, as Winderman notes in a separate piece.
East Notes: Bargnani, Cavs, Heat, Antetokounmpo
Let’s round up all of the links coming out of the Eastern Conference on Thursday night:
- In Canada for tomorrow night’s matchup with the Raptors, the Knicks, at this point in training camp, seem thrilled Toronto gave up on Andrea Bargnani this offseason, writes Marc Berman of the New York Post, who tabs head coach Mike Woodson as one of Bargnani’s biggest fans in the early going.
- Woodson also said on Thursday that rookie and No. 24 pick Tim Hardaway Jr. has “put himself in a nice position” to get minutes in the Knicks rotation, writes Al Iannazzone of the Long Island Newsday.
- Despite going undrafted in June, it sounds like Matthew Dellavedova is on track to make the Cavaliers‘ final roster as the third point guard, writes Bob Finnan of the Cleveland News-Herald. The Cavs signed the Saint Mary’s product to a two-year deal with a small guarantee about a month ago.
- Despite a shaky preseason debut on Tuesday, No. 1 pick Anthony Bennett says he is simply trying to find his groove after offseason shoulder surgery, writes Jodie Valade of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, who adds that the highly-touted rookie is currently concentrated on improving his conditioning.
- Ethan Skolnick of Bleacher Report breaks down the five candidates in Miami with a chance to crack Erik Spoelstra’s nine-man, championship rotation: Michael Beasley, Rashard Lewis, Roger Mason Jr., James Jones and Joel Anthony. Skolnick also mentions Greg Oden, who may be a factor for the Heat in 2014.
- Greek import Giannis Antetokounmpo, who the Bucks took in June at No. 15, has flashed big-time talent two preseason games into his NBA career, tweets Jonathan Givony of Draft Express, who says some scouts adamantly labeled the “Greek Freak” a bust without giving him a sufficient look (Twitter links here).
How Teams Are Using Minimum Salary Deals
As Chuck Myron of Hoops Rumors outlined in a piece over the summer, when we say a player is earning the maximum salary, that doesn’t necessarily tell us how much he’ll make in a given season. Based on service time and the previous year’s salary, a player’s maximum will vary, meaning Kobe Bryant‘s 2013/14 salary will more than double James Harden‘s, even though they’re both technically max players.
The same can be said of minimum salaries, which vary from player to player, albeit not quite as drastically as max salaries. Depending on how many years of NBA experience a player has, his minimum salary for the 2013/14 season could be worth as little as $490,180 (for a rookie), or as much as $1,399,507 (for a player with 10+ years of experience). You can find all the specific figures for ’13/14 in our glossary entry on the minimum salary exception.
That minimum salary exception, which allows teams over the cap to sign players for the minimum, comes with a few more quirks. For example, it can only be used to sign players for one or two years — a longer contract requires a different exception or cap space. Additionally, if a team signs a veteran to a one-year contract using the minimum salary exception, the team is only on the hook for the two-year-veteran’s minimum ($884,293), with the league picking up the rest of the tab.
Taking into account these rules, it’s not hard to see why the Heat, a team in the luxury tax, signed veterans like Michael Beasley and Roger Mason Jr. to one-year deals. Including a second-year team option on Mason’s contract, for instance, would allow the Heat to bring back the veteran shooter next year if he thrives this season. But a two-year minimum salary would mean Mason would be on the team’s books for his full $1,399,507 salary in 2013/14, rather than just $884,293. In other words, adding an extra year to his deal would have cost the Heat an extra $500K+ in salary, plus additional tax payments, even before that second year arrived.
On the other side of the spectrum, the Sixers, the team with the most cap space in the NBA, doesn’t need to use the minimum salary exception to sign anyone. As HoopsWorld’s salary page for Philadelphia shows, the team has taken full advantage of that flexibility this offseason, inking an incredible seven players (Darius Morris, Gani Lawal, Mac Koshwal, Vander Blue, Rodney Williams, Khalif Wyatt, and Hollis Thompson) to non-guaranteed four-year contracts worth the minimum.
Not all of those seven players will make the Sixers’ regular season roster, and those that do may not last four full years with the team. But if there’s even one gem in the group, Philadelphia has locked that player up through 2017 for a total salary that barely exceeds what Nerlens Noel will earn this year. It’s one of the benefits of having cap space, and it’s an opportunity that the CBA doesn’t afford to teams like the Heat.
The Rockets are another team that has taken full advantage of the flexibility of minimum salary contracts, having locked up players like Patrick Beverley and Greg Smith to long-term deals for the minimum. And even when Houston went over the cap this summer, the club didn’t have to worry about the tax implications of two-year minimum salary contracts, meaning guys like Reggie Williams, Ronnie Brewer, and Omri Casspi received multiyear non-guaranteed deals rather than one-year pacts. Assuming those players make the team, the Rockets will pay each of them more than the $884,293 the Heat owe their minimum salary guys, but Houston won’t have to pay extra tax penalties, and will have the flexibility to bring those players back cheaply next season.
Whenever another new name joins the ranks of the NBA’s maximum salary players, we’re reminded that not all maximum salaries are created equal. It’s worth remembering that the same can be said about minimum salaries, and teams can create savings, gain flexibility, or land bargains depending on what sort of minimum contracts they’re handing out.
Eastern Notes: Mason, Irving, Cavs, Magic
It took a while for Roger Mason Jr. to land with an NBA team this offseason, as Mason didn’t sign with the Heat until late September. However, that doesn’t mean there was no other interest in the veteran shooter. According to Ethan J. Skolnick of Bleacher Report (via Twitter), Mason had also been considering the Bulls before a 45-minute conversation with Ray Allen sold him on Miami.
Here’s more from around the Eastern Conference:
- When asked by a young fan at a community event if he’d leave Cleveland like LeBron James did, Kyrie Irving said he wouldn’t, as Sean Highkin of USA Today details. While we probably shouldn’t assume that’s set in stone, it’ll likely be a while before the Cavs guard hits the open market anyway. Irving still has two seasons remaining on his rookie contract and will be a strong candidate for a long-term extension a year from now.
- While some observers believe that DeSagana Diop has the inside track on securing a reserve roster spot with the Cavs, Kenny Kadji is making a pretty strong case for the job, writes Bob Finnan of The Plain Dealer (Sulia link). We heard yesterday from another Cleveland scribe, Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon Journal, that Henry Sims may be Kadji’s primary competition for a roster spot.
- The Magic see Jacksonville as a good location for a potential D-League affiliate, but it’s not the only possibility, writes Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel. The Magic’s D-League affiliate for the 2013/14 season is the Fort Wayne Mad Ants, a team they share with the Bobcats, Pistons, Pacers, Grizzlies, and Bucks.
- New Celtics big man Vitor Faverani isn’t the most verbose guy in the league, but he offers Boston a lot in the way of physical play and pick and rolls, according to Ben Rohrbach of WEEI.com.
Zach Links contributed to this post.