As we relayed on Thursday, No. 5 overall pick Ron Holland recently expressed a desire to win the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award in 2024/25.
On the surface, Holland looks like a long shot for that honor. He just turned 19 years old and struggled last season as a member of the G League Ignite with his outside shot (.239 3PT%), overall scoring efficiency (.682 FT%), and turnovers (3.5 per game). The oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag list Holland at +1800 for Rookie of the Year award, with 10 players ahead of him.
Still, it’s not an unreasonable goal for Holland. He should have an opportunity to earn minutes on the rebuilding Pistons, and this year’s Rookie of the Year race looks awfully wide open. A year ago, BetOnline.ag listed Victor Wembanyama as the overwhelming favorite (-150) for the award; this time around, the player with the best odds – Rockets guard Reed Sheppard – is at just +600.
Zaccharie Risacher of the Hawks and Alex Sarr of the Wizards were the top two picks in the 2024 draft, but neither player is expected to make the sort of immediate impact that Wembanyama – or even No. 2 overall pick Brandon Miller – did. They’re listed as the third- and fourth-best bets for Rookie of the Year honors at +850 and +900, respectively.
Sheppard will have to earn minutes in a crowded Rockets rotation, but he showed during his lone college season at Kentucky that he’s capable of providing the sort of outside shooting Houston could use — he made a whopping 52.1% of his three-point attempts in 2023/24.
Grizzlies center Zach Edey, who has the second-best ROY odds at +650, could be a compelling candidate. It remains to be seen how he’ll adjust to the speed and athleticism at the NBA level, but he has a path to playing time in a Memphis frontcourt that no longer features Steven Adams or Xavier Tillman. He also spent four years playing college ball and should be more NBA-ready than many of his fellow lottery picks. Plus, the Grizzlies arguably have more upside in 2024/25 than any other lottery team, so if the team wins 50+ games, that could help Edey in the end-of-season vote.
Spurs guard Stephon Castle (+900), Bulls forward Matas Buzelis (+900), Lakers sharpshooter Dalton Knecht (+1100), Timberwolves guard Rob Dillingham (+1200), Wizards guard Carlton Carrington (+1400), and Trail Blazers center Donovan Clingan (+1600) are some of the other first-year players viewed as Rookie of the Year candidates, but not all of them are locks to be in their teams’ rotations right away. Clingan, for instance, will have to battle Robert Williams and Duop Reath for minutes at center behind presumptive starter Deandre Ayton.
We want to know what you think. If you had to make a Rookie of the Year prediction today, which player would you feel most comfortable picking? Will there be several good contenders for the award or is there a particular rookie you expect to pull away from the pack?
Of the last 10 Rookie of the Year winners, five have been No. 1 overall picks and four others were selected in the top four. Will we deviate from that trend this year and get our first winner outside the top four since No. 36 overall pick Malcolm Brogdon won the 2017 award?
Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts on which of this year’s rookies will make the biggest first-year impact.