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Ranking Rookie Scale Extension Candidates From Least To Most Likely

October 9th, 2024 at 7:03am CST by Luke Adams

Four NBA players have signed rookie scale extensions so far in 2024, but if recent history is any indication, that number should at least double - and perhaps triple - by October 21, which is the deadline for those deals to be completed.

In each of the past four offseasons from 2020-23, at least 10 rookie scale extensions have been signed, including a record-setting 14 a year ago.

And while it's not uncommon for the most lucrative of those extensions to be finalized early in the offseason - like the maximum-salary deals for Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Franz Wagner were this summer - many negotiations go down to the wire. In each of those last four years, at least six rookie scale extensions have been completed in October (or, in the case of the COVID-delayed 2020 offseason, December).

Based on those figures, it seems safe to assume news will break within the next 10 days about a few more rookie scale extension agreements, but which of the players eligible to sign those contracts are the best bets to actually get something done? That's the question we're considering today.

Listed below are the 20 players still eligible for rookie scale extensions, ranked by the likelihood that they'll finalize new deals by October 21. We're starting with the least likely candidates and working our way up to the most likely.

To clarify, this list isn't ranking these players by value -- the No. 1 player isn't necessarily the one who should get the most lucrative contract. We're just using our best judgment to predict which of them are most likely to have new contracts in hand by opening night, allowing them to avoid going through the restricted free agency process in July 2025.

Let's dive in...

Not happening

20. Chris Duarte (Bulls)
Never say never, but it's pretty hard to envision a scenario in which Duarte signs a new contract with the Bulls before the season begins. He was sent from Sacramento to Chicago in the DeMar DeRozan sign-and-trade for salary purposes after two disappointing seasons in Indiana and Sacramento in which he averaged just 5.6 points per game on 37.4% shooting (32.9% on three-pointers). Duarte showed real promise in his rookie year in 2021/22 (13.1 PPG, .369 3PT%) and if he can recapture that form, he'd be worth retaining beyond the coming season, but now isn't the time to commit to him.

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Heat Notes: Butler, Adebayo, Jovic, Rozier, Riley, Pullin

October 8th, 2024 at 10:15pm CST by Dana Gauruder

There were some good signs during the Heat‘s preseason loss to Charlotte on Tuesday, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel writes.

Jimmy Butler played his first preseason game in two years and contributed 11 points in 15-plus minutes. Bam Adebayo made two of his five 3-point attempts as he looks to expand his offensive game. And Nikola Jovic had nine points in 16 minutes while starting alongside Adebayo up front.

“It was good to get that game conditioning in,” coach Erik Spoelstra said of the preseason opener. “It always feels a little bit different no matter how many years you’ve played. Our guys have been working extremely hard. But it was good to face somebody else.”

We have more on the Heat:

Terry Rozier projects as the starting point guard on opening night. He battled a neck injury late last season and into the offseason. “This whole offseason, when I first got hurt, I definitely appreciated the game way more than I ever did,” Rozier said, per Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald. “That’s why I said everything happens for a reason. I really feel like this happened for a reason to make me lock back in, to focus. Now I’m just not looking back.”
All current and future courts at Miami’s home arena will be dedicated to team president Pat Riley, Chiang notes. The Heat’s home court will now be known as “Pat Riley Court at Kaseya Center,” with the new name and Riley’s signature inscribed onto the court. Riley will become just the second coach in NBA history to receive such an honor, Chiang writes, joining Red Auerbach of the Celtics.
Zyon Pullin is participating in camp on an Exhibit 10 contract. The former Florida guard knows he’ll be ticketed to the Heat’s G League affiliate, the Sioux Falls Skyforce. “It’s really just been definitely spend time in Sioux Falls and really just trying that development program, the history and track record it’s had,” Pullin said, per Winderman. “It’s a reason why I wanted to be here in the first place. So I think it’s just continue to lock in once we go down there and keep developing and see where it goes from there.”
In case you missed it, the Heat’s Thursday preseason game vs. Atlanta has been pushed back to next Wednesday (October 16) due to Hurricane Milton.

Clippers Notes: Lue, Harden, Leonard, Mann

October 8th, 2024 at 8:40pm CST by Dana Gauruder

There are six new players on the Clippers‘ roster and six players who are 25 or younger. Head coach Tyronn Lue finds himself doing more teaching in training camp and he doesn’t mind the change, he told Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times.

“I love it,” Lue said. “It gives me something to do. The young guys, just teaching. The new guys, teaching, understanding spacing, understanding how to execute offensively, what we’re looking for first, second, third option. So, it’s been good.”

Lue added that he doesn’t expect everyone to absorb the lessons immediately.

“I have patience,” Lue said. “You gotta have patience with a group. You can’t get frustrated, but the guys are picking stuff up very well. But I like to teach, make sure we’re in our right spots, let them understand why we’re doing certain things and why you got to set the screen here instead of there, why you gotta be here making the pass instead of there. So, it’s a lot of teaching, but it’s good.”

We have more on the Clippers:

With Paul George in Philadelphia, James Harden becomes the second option behind Kawhi Leonard. Leonard said the veteran guard shares the same mentality that he has. “The relationship has been great,” Leonard told The Athletic’s Law Murray. “He came in last year wanting to win and saying that he wanted to sacrifice and do the things we needed to do to win games. So going into this year, he has the same mindset. You just want another guy on your team that is like-minded and is just willing to do anything that it takes for us to win. I think it’s a good relationship so far. We can be transparent to each other about how we’re playing, good or bad. So I think it will be good moving forward.”
The breakdown on Terance Mann‘s extension looks like this — he’ll make $15.5MM in 2025/26; $15.5MM in 2026/27; and $16MM in 2027/28, Spotrac contributor Keith Smith tweets. It’s a fully guaranteed deal with no options, Smith adds. Mann signed the extension on Oct. 2.
In case you missed it, P.J. Tucker is on indefinite leave from the team. Get the details here.

Atlantic Notes: Yabusele, Knicks’ Starters, Shamet, Nets

October 8th, 2024 at 7:10pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Guerschon Yabusele scored 15 points for the Sixers in their exhibition game against the New Zealand Breakers on Monday and it was a special night for him, Gina Mizell of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes.

“I’m not going to lie, it felt amazing,” Yabusele said. “It’s been a long road, but happy to be here.”

Yabusele signed a one-year contract with the Sixers in late August. He was selected in the first round of the 2016 draft and played two seasons with the Celtics from 2017-19, but hasn’t appeared in a regular season NBA game in five years. The power forward excelled overseas before joining Philadelphia.

We have more from the Atlantic Division:

The Knicks‘ projected starters played anywhere from 13-15 minutes in their preseason opener against Charlotte on Sunday. It’s just a first step as Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns try to settle in with their new teammates. “First game, some good, some bad,” coach Tom Thibodeau said, per Zach Braziller of the New York Post. “Obviously, we have a lot of work to do. I figured it would be a little choppy. There are a lot of areas we need to clean up. But there were some good things as well.”
Landry Shamet entered Knicks camp on a non-guaranteed contract but the veteran guard is thrilled to be on a contender after spending last season with the rebuilding Wizards. Shamet scored 16 points, including four 3-pointers, in New York’s preseason opener. “I want to win, I want to compete, we all do. Anybody in the NBA that says otherwise is lying,” he told Braziller. “We all want to compete at the highest level. It’s exciting to be here. Last year was last year. It was what it was. I’m excited to be here and move forward and build with this group.”
With frontcourt players Day’Ron Sharpe and Trendon Watford sidelined by hamstring injuries, the Nets will look at some smaller lineups in the preseason, according to Brian Lewis of the New York Post. “It just forced us to do something that actually we wanted to do sooner or later; so might as well do it the sooner the better,” first-year coach Jordi Fernandez said.

Nuggets Sign Richardson, Funk, Bediako To Exhibit 10 Deals

October 8th, 2024 at 5:42pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Nuggets have signed Will Richardson, Andrew Funk and Charles Bediako, according to a team press release. All three players signed Exhibit 10 deals, according to the Denver Gazette’s Vinny Benedetto (Twitter link).

The Nuggets made room for the trio by waiving Gabe McGlothan, Jaylin Williams, and Jahmir Young.

Richardson went undrafted in 2023 before signing with the Grand Rapids Gold last season. The former Oregon guard averaged 7.0 points, 2.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists in 17.8 minutes per contest for Denver’s G League affiliate.

Funk also went undrafted last year before joining the Nuggets during training camp. Funk, who played college ball at Bucknell and Penn State, also appeared in four of the Nuggets’ Summer League games in 2023. He eventually signed a two-way contract with the Bulls in February, but was waived in July.

The seven-foot Bediako played two college season at Alabama. Bediako, who was also undrafted in 2023, has appeared in Summer League games for both the Spurs and the Magic. Denver’s intent to sign Bediako was previously reported.

It’s likely all three will be waived. They’ll each be eligible for a bonus worth up to $77.5K if they join the Gold and remain with the G League club for at least 60 days.

And-Ones: G League Trades, Charania, Breakout Candidates, More

October 8th, 2024 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

A pair of teams have acquired the G League rights for players who are in camp with them on Exhibit 10 contracts.

The Wisconsin Herd (Bucks) sent Marquese Chriss‘ rights and a 2025 first-round pick to the Birmingham Squadron (Pelicans) in exchange for Liam Robbins‘ rights (Twitter link), while the Raptors 905 are receiving Jared Rhoden‘s rights from the College Park Skyhawks (Hawks) in exchange for the rights to Omari Moore and a 2025 first-rounder (Twitter link via Blake Murphy of Sportsnet).

Robbins is currently on Milwaukee’s preseason roster, while Rhoden is under contract with Toronto.

In other G League trade news, the Austin Spurs announced (via Twitter) that they’ve sent the returning rights for Yauhen Massalski to the San Diego Clippers in exchange for a 2025 second-round pick, while the Cleveland Charge (Cavaliers) acquired Elijah Hughes‘ rights from the Wisconsin Herd (Bucks) in exchange for the rights to Sam Merrill and a 2025 second-rounder.

Trading away Merrill’s returning rights won’t mean anything for the Cavaliers as long as he remains on Cleveland’s NBA roster, but if he were to be waived down the road, the Bucks’ affiliate would have first dibs on him as a G Leaguer.

Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

Shams Charania, who has spent the past few years with The Athletic, is making the move to ESPN to replace Adrian Wojnarowski as the network’s senior NBA insider, Charania announced on Twitter. Recent reporting suggested that ESPN news-breakers currently covering other sports – including Jeff Passan (MLB) or Adam Schefter (NFL) – were among the candidates being considered to replace Wojnarowski, but Charania was always the more logical choice, given his lengthy history of major NBA scoops.
In an Insider-only story for ESPN, Jeremy Woo identifies 11 players he believes are prime breakout candidates in 2024/25. Woo’s 11 candidates fall into four groups: players who could make the leap to an All-Star level, such as Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley; players who could ascend to borderline All-Stars, like Hawks forward Jalen Johnson; players who will benefit from taking on larger roles, including Bulls guard Josh Giddey; and role players who could make bigger impacts, such as Kings guard Keon Ellis.
Kurt Helin of NBC Sports predicts the 10 players most likely to be traded in 2024/25, ranging from big names like Brandon Ingram and Zach LaVine to role players such as Bruce Brown and Jonas Valanciunas. Three of the players in Helin’s top 10 – Bojan Bogdanovic, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Cameron Johnson – are currently members of the Nets.

Southeast Notes: Poole, Heat, Hawks, Risacher, Carter, Lee

October 8th, 2024 at 2:44pm CST by Luke Adams

Jordan Poole was a little “quiet” and “standoffish” during his first year with the Wizards, according to Kyle Kuzma, who believes that was out of character for the 25-year-old guard and notes that he seems more comfortable entering his second season in D.C.

“I don’t think last year he necessarily was (Jordan Poole last season),” Kuzma said, per Varun Shankar of The Washington Post. “… We have the same agency, and I know for a fact from conversations that was not him. And I think that I see more of what Jordan Poole is now.”

As Shankar details, the Wizards’ plan to get the ball into Poole’s hands more and let him serve as a primary play-maker is one key reason for his increased comfort level. He had 16 points, six assists, and no turnovers in 22 minutes of action during Sunday’s preseason opener vs. Toronto.

“(Playing point guard has) allowed me to have more influence, more impact, get my hands on the offense,” Poole said, adding that his goal in his new role is to be “aggressive” and to “find ways to get my teammates involved.”

Here’s more from around the Southeast:

The preseason game between the Heat and Hawks originally scheduled to be played at Kaseya Center in Miami this Thursday has been postponed until Wednesday, October 16 due to Hurricane Milton, the Heat announced today (Twitter link).
This year’s No. 1 overall pick, Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher, isn’t coming into the league with nearly as much as hype or pressure as some past top picks, but as his pro career begins, he’s still eager to reward the club’s confidence in him, as Lauren Williams of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution details.
The three-year, $58.65MM contract extension that Wendell Carter signed with the Magic features a third-year team option, league sources tell Michael Scotto of HoopsHype (Twitter link). That means the deal will only include about $37.65MM in fully guaranteed money, with a $21MM option for 2028/29.
Having gotten a head coaching opportunity after what he estimates was 10 interviews with teams over the years, Charles Lee is focused on building a culture of togetherness with the Hornets, writes Jared Weiss of The Athletic. “I think that we try to talk about right now just our competitive habits and how we all affect each other,” Lee said. “Knowing that if one person isn’t holding up their end of the bargain or their end of the competitive bargain, then all of us are going to feel that.”

Jazz Cut Max Abmas, Taevion Kinsey, Isaiah Wong

October 8th, 2024 at 2:21pm CST by Luke Adams

The Jazz have trimmed their preseason roster from 21 players to 18, announcing today in a press release that they’ve waived camp invitees Max Abmas, Taevion Kinsey, and Isaiah Wong.

Abmas, Kinsey, and Wong joined Utah in September on non-guaranteed Exhibit 10 contracts. They remained on the roster through training camp and a pair of preseason games, but none of them saw any action in either of those contests.

In all likelihood, the trio is now headed for the Salt Lake City Stars, the Jazz’s G League affiliate. Hoops Rumors can confirm all three players received maximum Exhibit 10 bonuses, so as long as they spend at least 60 days with the Stars, they’ll earn $77.5K apiece on top of their standard G League salaries.

Utah is now carrying 15 players on guaranteed standard contracts and three on two-way deals. The team will likely enter the regular season with those 18 players, but could continue to shuffle others in and out of the final three spots on its 21-man preseason roster for G League rights/bonus purposes during the next couple weeks.

Injury Notes: Barrett, Carter, Wallace, Herro, Jaquez

October 8th, 2024 at 12:55pm CST by Luke Adams

Raptors forward RJ Barrett will miss the rest of the preseason after being diagnosed with a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder, the team announced on Tuesday in a press release. Barrett left Sunday’s game against Washington early after sustaining the injury.

As Michael Grange of Sportsnet and Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca note (via Twitter), while Barrett has only been ruled out for the preseason and will be reevaluated before opening night, it’s very possible he’ll miss some time at the start of the regular season as well.

It’s a disappointing setback for Barrett, who looked good on Sunday before getting hurt and was penciled in as Toronto’s starting small forward, and for the Raptors, who have been hit hard by the injury bug this fall. The team is also currently without Bruce Brown and rookie Ja’Kobe Walter — Brown is recovering from knee surgery, while Walter is dealing with a sprained AC joint of his own.

Here are a few more health-related updates from around the NBA:

After turning his left ankle during Monday’s preseason opener vs. New Orleans, Magic center Wendell Carter Jr. has been diagnosed with a sprain and is considered day-to-day, per Jason Beede of The Orlando Sentinel (Twitter links). The timing of Carter’s return will depend on how his ankle responds to treatment, Beede adds. Monday was still a good day for the big man, who signed a three-year, $58.7MM extension with Orlando before the game.
Thunder guard Cason Wallace sprained his ankle in Monday’s preseason opener against San Antonio, but the sprain is considered a mild one, according to Bally Sports Oklahoma sideline reporter Nick Gallo (Twitter link). It’s unclear if Wallace will be available for Wednesday’s game vs. Houston, but it doesn’t at this point as if his availability for the start of the season is in jeopardy.
Tyler Herro (right groin strain) and Jaime Jaquez (left groin strain) of the Heat didn’t participate in an intrasquad scrimmage on Monday, and Jaquez underwent an MRI on his injury, writes Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald. However, imaging on Jaquez didn’t reveal anything concerning, Chiang says, and Herro didn’t even get an MRI because his strain is considered mild. “Everybody can take a big breath. Everything is OK,” head coach Erik Spoelstra said, referring to Herro and Jaquez as day-to-day. “This is not a storyline about new protocols. This is just the appropriate thing right now. … I expect Tyler and Jaime to be back in full contact soon. But they’re already doing a lot of stuff.”

Mavericks Waive A.J. Lawson

October 8th, 2024 at 12:31pm CST by Luke Adams

The Mavericks have waived shooting guard A.J. Lawson, the team announced today (via Twitter).

Although Lawson was on a non-guaranteed contract, his release is a little more notable than many roster cuts this month, since he was on a standard multiyear deal that had carried over to this season, rather than an Exhibit 10/training camp contract.

Lawson, 24, signed a two-year, two-way contract with Dallas back in December 2022, shortly after being waived by Minnesota. He remained on that deal until March 2024, when he was promoted to the standard roster on a new four-year contract that was only guaranteed for the remainder of the 2023/24 season.

Lawson appeared in a total of 56 NBA games for the Mavericks during his two seasons with the team, including 42 in 2023/24. He averaged 3.4 points and 1.3 rebounds in 7.4 minutes per contest and posted a shooting line of .457/.307/.548 at the NBA level. The former South Carolina standout also played seven times for the Texas Legends in the G League last season, averaging 20.7 PPG and 7.0 RPG with a .530 FG%.

Dallas is carrying 14 players on guaranteed contracts. Veteran forward Markieff Morris, who has a non-guaranteed salary, is considered the heavy favorite to claim the 15th standard roster spot, assuming the team carries a full roster to open the season.

It’s worth noting that the Mavs do have a two-way slot available, so if they still like Lawson and want to bring him back, they could re-sign him to a two-way contract as long as he clears waivers — his multiyear deal wasn’t eligible to be directly converted into a two-way.