Prospect Profile

Prospect Profile: Alex Len

May 12th, 2013 at 10:21am CST by Chuck Myron

Most draft prospects still have nearly seven weeks left to make their cases in workouts with teams, but the book on Maryland center Alex Len is as complete as it's going to be. Len is out for four to six months with a stress fracture in his left ankle, leaving him without a chance to prove he's worthy of the No. 1 pick. As it is, he appears destined for the middle of the lottery, with Chad Ford of ESPN.com and Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress agreeing he's the seventh-best prospect available.

The 19-year-old Ukraine native is a raw talent, and there will be plenty of risk involved in taking him, particularly given his injury. He could nonetheless wind up as a steal, and was in the conversation as a potential top overall selection at times this season. That kind of talk started when he opened the season with 23 points and 12 rebounds, both career highs at the time, in a highly anticipated matchup against Kentucky center Nerlens Noel.

Previously, he had been considered a fringe lottery pick. There were questions entering this season about his strength, as well as his poor free-throw shooting and propensity for fouls and turnovers. He showed up after last summer with added muscle, and answered critics with fewer fouls and turnovers per minute this year, as well as a markedly better performance at the free-throw line. He went from 59% at the stripe his freshman season to 69% as a sophomore this year. He did so in nearly twice as many attempts per game, as Len became a much greater part of the Maryland offense.

He still averaged only 8.5 field goal attempts per outing this season, a jump from 4.3 in a relatively similar amount of playing time last year, but still not as many as his talents suggest he should have taken. Len possesses a legitimate post-up game, and it appeared Maryland coach Mark Turgeon's offensive system held him back, even as some scouts began to think toward the end of the season that Len might be better off staying for his junior year. He showed inconsistency against ACC competition and in the NIT, though his rebounding numbers were more or less the same throughout the season, save for back-to-back three-rebound performances in the first two rounds of the NIT.

Len responded with 13 rebounds in his next postseason contest, and finished the season with averages of 7.8 rebounds in 26.4 minutes per game. His work on the boards is not a question mark, and neither is his shot-blocking ability. At 7'1" with an even longer wingspan, he swatted away 2.1 shots on a nightly basis this season, mirroring his average as a freshman. His size, quickness and athleticism, as well as his touch as a finisher around the basket, make him a sought-after prospect.

There isn't a team out there that couldn't use a shot-blocking 7'1" center with a post game, but the team currently slotted to pick seventh is the Pistons, and they already have Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. Len could give the Pelicans, targeted for the No. 5 spot, an impressive one-two punch inside with Anthony Davis, and the same could be said of the Blazers and LaMarcus Aldridge if Len drops to their current position at 10th overall. The Kings could draft Len sixth overall and put pressure on DeMarcus Cousins to perform, while the Timberwolves, in line for the ninth pick, could take Len as insurance in case a team throws an inflated offer at restricted free agent Nikola Pekovic.

Minnesota, though, has expectations of becoming a playoff team next season, and that could dissuade them from picking Len. Despite his impressive potential, he remains a work in progress, and appears best suited for a team that's willing to be patient.

Prospect Profile: Trey Burke

April 27th, 2013 at 6:30pm CST by Zachary Links

They say it's great to leave on a high note and no one understands that better than Michigan's Trey Burke. After guiding the Wolverines to a National Championship and picking up every national player of the year award along the way, the sophomore announced that he would enter the 2013 draft. In the last couple of months, Burke has vaulted up mock drafts all across the web and appears to be a mortal lock for the top ten.

There's no debate about it, Burke is universally regarded as the top point guard in this year's class. The 20-year-old has tremendous passing ability and has a knack for finding the open man in traffic. He also knows how to keep command of the basketball with his high-level ball handling and he has cut down on turnovers from his freshman to sophomore year. Burke completes the triple threat profile with his shooting ability and has tremendous range from outside. Offensively, his skill set projects extremely well to the next level.

The Michigan star isn't quite as promising on the other side of the floor and bigger opponents have given him trouble at various points this season. That's obviously going to come up even more often for the 6'0" guard in the NBA and he'll have to toughen up in order to keep his assignment in check. It's worth noting that while Burke is undersized, he does boast an impressive 6'5" wingspan which will be a major asset as he looks to improve his defense.

Despite his height disadvantage, Burke still holds more promise than the other true point guards in this class such as Syracuse standout Michael Carter-Williams and Miami's Shane Larkin. Burke is extremely well-rounded on offense and when we look back on this year's draft, Burke may stand out as one of a few memorable talents from a thin class. How high will he go? DraftExpress currently has him pegged at No. 5 while the latest mock draft from ESPN's Chad Ford puts Burke at No. 6. It's hard to imagine Burke surging ahead of Ben McLemore or projected No. 1 pick Nerlens Noel, but strong showings in workouts coupled with a favorable lottery draw could vault him as high as No. 3.

Prospect Profile: C.J. Leslie

April 23rd, 2013 at 6:39pm CST by Zachary Links

N.C. State junior C.J. Leslie is no stranger to NBA scouts, as he has been on the map for the past two years. However, it would appear that staying in school has hurt Leslie's stock and the forward finds himself almost universally rated as a second-round prospect in a draft class that is believed to be the weakest in years. Leslie isn't interested in trying to boost his stock with one more year in school as he announced earlier this month that he won't be returning to the Wolfpack.

So why are teams down on the 6'8" (or 6'9", depending on who you ask) forward? His physical talent and all-around athleticism aren't in question, but his upside and overall motivation to get better are. Passing up the opportunity to jump into the 2012 draft was supposed to give Leslie the opening to vault himself into the top 20 of this year's class, but his junior year fell flat in the eyes of most observers. Leslie's numbers went up a tick but a deeper look at his stat sheet shows that his production per 40 minutes have dipped somewhat. His sophomore year saw him average 19.8 PPG, 10.1 RPG, and 2.2 BPG per 40 minutes. This past year, however, he averaged 17.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG, and 1.5 BPG. That's not an alarming drop, but it's definitely not the step up that scouts were hoping to see.

On offense, his athletic ability is what sets him apart from many small forwards in his class. He has shown that he can beat just about any defender off of the dribble at the college level and his quick first step should serve him well in the pros. However, unlike most players at the three, he doesn't have a consistent outside jumper. His lack of a strong jump shot was always one of the big strikes against him and with three years to get it straight, he still hasn't been able to show that he can keep defenders honest. He also has to improve his ball-handling if he's truly going to take advantage of his ability to break towards the basket.

Leslie never showed himself to be a lockdown defender at N.C. State, but his athleticism leaves some to believe that he can become a disruptive player in the NBA. Armed with quickness and a wingspan of 7'2", it's not hard to see Leslie being able to clog up passing lanes and kickstart the offense in transition. Of course, he'll have to commit mentally to becoming a tougher defender if he wants to give opponents trouble and out-muscle them when necessary.

Some have wondered why Leslie would jump into the draft when his stock is at its low point, but it's not such a strange decision when you consider how strong the 2014 draft is expected to be. Leslie may not be able to work his way into the first 30 picks, but he could improve his draft stock enough to come off of the board early in the second round. As it stands, Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress has the forward going 34th overall (just ahead of teammate Lorenzo Brown) while Chad Ford has him rated 68th in this class, which leaves him as a fringe second round pick or potentially undrafted. In a group of players where athleticism is hard to find, I expect to see him come off the board in the early-to-mid portion of the second round.

Prospect Profile: Jeff Withey

April 20th, 2013 at 2:44pm CST by Chuck Myron

In a sense, Jeff Withey is the anti-Cody Zeller. While the short-armed Zeller's strength is his offensive game, Withey uses his long arms and athleticism to protect the basket like few others. Zeller is a 20-year-old sophomore who's been highly touted for a while, and Withey's a 23-year-old late-blooming senior. Both were increasingly overshadowed on their college teams by a pair of two-guards who made fast climbs up draft boards, but while there's still some debate about whether Zeller or Victor Oladipo is the better prospect, it's clear Ben McLemore has the edge on Withey.

Zeller is widely projected as a lottery pick, but Withey checks in at No. 19 on Jonathan Givony's DraftExpress rankings and at No. 24 with Chad Ford of ESPN.com. Yet if Withey was "arguably the best overall defender in the NCAA," as Givony writes, maybe he should be rated closer to Zeller. Defense is, after all, half of the game, even if it isn't as thrilling as offense. Withey isn't inept offensively, as he's shown the ability to finish around the basket. He doesn't have a back-t0-the-basket post game, and rarely dares to take a mid-range jumper, but there aren't many polished centers in the NBA, anyway.

He's either 6'11", as DraftExpress has him, or 7'0", according to ESPN's measurements, and his wingspan is variously described as 7'1.5" and 7'3". Regardless of his precise measurements, Withey used his length to block 3.9 shots per game this season. That average jumped to 5.7 in three NCAA tournament games, including back-to-back five-block performances against North Carolina and Michigan. He also had 16 points and a season-high 16 boards against the Tar Heels, showing not only an ability to perform in the spotlight but also a rebounding acumen that he rarely displayed during the season. Four of Withey's rebounds in that game came on the offensive glass, and as Givony points out, Withey had the fewest offensive rebounds per 40 minutes of any center among his top 100 prospects.

That stat is disconcerting, especially considering Withey does most of his offensive work around the basket. Not every center in the NBA is called upon to grab a bunch of rebounds, with Brook Lopez and the Nets, who rely upon Reggie Evans for their board work, as Exhibit A. Still, that, more than his offensive shortcomings, could be why NBA teams wouldn't consider drafting him until after the lottery picks are through.

Of the teams drafting 15th through 25th, the Celtics, at No. 16, and Cavs, at No. 19, jump out as clubs that could benefit from a shot-blocking center like Withey. If he winds up in Cleveland, he would coincidentally become teammates with Tyler Zeller, Cody's brother. The Nets, at No. 22, could see Withey as a backup to Lopez and once more rely on their power forwards to man the boards. The Hawks, at Nos. 17 and 18, and Jazz, at No. 21, are wild cards, given all their free agents, though Utah seems like a longshot because of its frontcourt depth.

All of that can change between now and draft night, as teams exchange picks via trade and players make impressions in pre-draft workouts. If Withey shows that he can be more active on the boards, I wouldn't be surprised if he sneaks into the latter part of the lottery. Size, after all, has always been a commodity in the NBA.

Prospect Profile: C.J. McCollum

April 13th, 2013 at 9:09am CST by Zachary Links

The FGCU Eagles were the darlings of this year's NCAA tournament but last March was Lehigh's time in the sun. The No. 15 Mountain Hawks knocked off No. 2 Duke, thanks in large part to a 30 point blowout performance from junior guard C.J. McCollum. McCollum's stock was skyhigh, but he chose to return to Bethlehem, Pennsylvania for another year. Most players in his position would have taken the money and ran, but the journalism major explained his position in an article for The Sporting News.

"My family and I believe another year in college will be more beneficial for me on and off court. If I were in a situation where I needed money, I would definitely consider taking my career to the next level. But both of my parents work hard to ensure my brother and I can live comfortably, which takes away any added pressure to pursue a professional career at this time. The fact that my brother plays professionally over in Israel doesn’t hurt, either," McCollum said.

Some wondered if McCollum was costing himself a guaranteed deal by passing up the chance to go in the first round of the 2012 draft. There were also doubters for the guard when he fractured his left foot this past January. Even though the injury cost him the second half of the season and a chance to flex his muscles in the Patriot League tournament, the senior is still going to go off the board inside of the first 30 picks.

The foot injury came at a rather inopportune time as McCollum was averaging 25.7 points per contest on the year. Just as he did in his junior year, McCollum showed that he can create his own opportunities to score when necessary. There's going to be some debate over whether the 6'3" prospect can play the point guard position in part because of the amount of shots that he took for Lehigh. The reality is, however, that he was charged with scoring in bunches for his team and he has decent court vision. He doesn't project to be Jason Kidd, but he can certainly be an effective shoot-first combo guard at the next level.

On the other side of the floor, McCollum has shown that he can be an effective defender with a knack for stripping the ball away. He's also not shy about cleaning the glass and his 6.5 RPG in his last full season shows it. He'll be at a height disadvantage in the NBA, but his tenacity should help balance things out somewhat.

The biggest strike against McCollum is his overall lack of speed. He was obviously quick enough to beat defenders in college, but his lack of a fifth gear could hurt him in the pros. Regardless, McCollum finds himself in a talent-starved draft class and he's going to get nabbed in the first round despite missing the bulk of his senior season. Most mock drafts have him going mid-first round, but there's a good chance we see him work his way up to the lottery.

Prospect Profile: Michael Carter-Williams

April 10th, 2013 at 9:52pm CST by Chuck Myron

Michael Carter-Williams surely would have wished for a better final impression on the college hardwood. The 6'5" point guard spent the last minute of Syracuse's Final Four loss to Michigan on the bench, having fouled out after a two-point, 1-for-6 shooting performance that included two assists and five turnovers. Yet even as Carter-Williams was struggling mightily on offense last weekend, he was part of a suffocating zone defense that held Trey Burke, another point guard widely projected to go in the lottery, to seven points on 1-for-8 shooting. A longtime NBA scout tells Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv that he thinks Carter-Williams' overall performance in the tournament, highlighted by a season-high 24 points against top-seeded Indiana, has lifted his stock.

Carter-Williams currently checks in at No. 9 on Chad Ford's ESPN.com big board and No. 12 on Jonathan Givony's rankings at DraftExpress.com. It's quite a rise from a year ago, when he averaged just 10.3 minutes per game as a freshman buried behind Dion Waiters and Scoop Jardine. Carter-Williams might not be the best pro prospect among point guards in the draft, as some argued during a hot streak earlier this season, but his superior size allows him to disrupt offenses, having averaged 2.8 steals per game this year. He can play shooting guard, but his passing and ball-handling skills scream "point guard."

The stumbling block that could particularly affect him as a point man is his propensity for turnovers. He gave the ball away 3.4 times per game in 2012/13, negating his takeaways on defense. His shot is an issue as well, as he posted a shooting line of .393/.292/.694 this season. Both problems are correctable over time, however, so neither seems like a deal-breaker. The greater question may surround how well his defensive ability translates to man-to-man schemes from Syracuse's full-time zone, and scouts and executives will probably be looking for answers to that during pre-draft workouts.

That's when Carter-Williams expects to make his case to be the No. 1 overall pick. He believes Kansas shooting guard Ben McLemore would go first if the draft were today, but Carter-Williams thinks he can overtake him, as he tells Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports.

"If I go in the pre-draft camp and kill it and do the things I know I can do, I don't see why not," he said.

As with just about every prospect, the order in which teams will be drafting could go a long way in determining when Carter-Williams is selected. Assuming his stock doesn't jump as he's predicting, there might not be much call for a point guard where he's projected to be drafted. The five teams currently in line to pick eighth through 12th all have youthful incumbent point guards. Of the clubs likely to wind up with mid- to late-lottery picks, the Hornets, Kings and Mavs seem likeliest to go after a point guard, though trades could shake that up. The best bet for Carter-Williams is probably a team that can afford to be patient, since he could struggle to adjust defensively and have trouble on offenses as well, given the importance of floor spacing and long-range shooting in today's NBA.

Still, it seems he has the gifts and passing ability necessary to allow him to become better at the pro game than he was at the college game, a feat Carter-Williams told Spears he believes he can accomplish. Given the timing of those comments, made four days after this weekend's nightmare against Michigan, it doesn't sound like that performance has caused him to lose confidence, and that, too, will be an asset at the next level.

Prospect Profile: Anthony Bennett

April 7th, 2013 at 1:45pm CST by Zachary Links

Last week, UNLV star Anthony Bennett officially announced that he'll forego his sophomore season and enter the 2013 draft. In his freshman year for the Runnin' Rebels, Bennett averaged 16.1 PPG and 8.1 RPG and shot 53.3% from the floor in 27.1 minutes per contest, but doesn't have the household name of other top prospects like Kentucky's Nerlens Noel and Kansas' Ben McLemore. If you're not among those that are familiar with Bennett, now is a good time to start.

The Canadian import stands at 6'7" but you wouldn't know it based on the way that he pushes around taller opponents. At the same time, he has a more diverse offensive skillset than most big men out there as well. Bennett is comfortable with the ball in his hands and can slash to the basket, shoot from the perimeter, and score in the paint. While he doesn't have the same ceiling, his offensive range at the power forward position is reminiscent of former Syracuse standout Derrick Coleman. He still has a great deal of potential in his own right, however, and his offense get even stronger if he can develop a back-to-the-basket game.

Defensively, Bennett has a ways to go. He has the athleticism to be a strong defender but never seemed to apply himself to it while at UNLV. Whether that's due to the scoring that was demanded of him or just a matter of attitude, it's something that will have to change at the next level, especially when Bennett is charged with guarding full-sized frontcourt players. In UNLV's first round defeat to Cal this year, backup center Robert Thurman gave Bennett trouble on both sides of the floor as he used his size and muscle to his advantage. NBA scouts will certainly test Bennett with bigger opponents in workouts but if he gets by without too much trouble, the forward should be a top ten selection.

Prospect Profile: Shabazz Muhammad

April 6th, 2013 at 8:55am CST by Zachary Links

It's been a strange month for UCLA's Shabazz Muhammad, a player who is universally regarded as one of the top talents in the 2013 draft. In a matter of weeks, Muhammad's team was bounced from the first-round of the NCAA tournament, his coach was sent packing, and he aged a year well in advance of his birthday.

In case you missed it, it turns out that the freshman is actually 20-years-old, not 19 as previously believed. The story is bizarre and interesting for a lot of non-basketball reasons, but the headline is that the small forward figures to be less attractive to a lot of lottery teams. Dominating as a freshman is impressive, but less so when you're one (and sometimes, two) years older than your classmates. There's also the matter of potential dishonesty when it comes to Muhammad. The youngster's father appeared to be the puppet master behind the idea of fudging his birthdate, but NBA evaluators will surely probe further into that matter and try to find out why he was complicit in the plan. But make no mistake about it, Muhammad's situation isn't on the level of, say, Manti Te'o, and the coverup probably won't sink him on the draft board.

Getting back to basketball, Muhammad is a scoring machine who has a knack for finishing plays from uncomfortable spots on the floor. Muhammad has a great spot-up jumper and keeps defenders on honest with his ability to slash to the basket. He utilizes the mostly under-utilized floater and sonehow makes it on a regular basis. The forward isn't just zeroed in on scoring either; he goes to the glass and bangs with bigger defenders for the loose ball, and often finds a way to come away with it. He's also made strides with his outside shooting which was one of his main criticisms entering UCLA.

He gets hacked quite a bit when he slashes to the basket – which is great – but it would be nice if he could convert on more than 71% of his free throw attempts. His shot-selection is also questionable at times and can even be borderline frustrating. Muhammad has good basketball instincts on the whole, but if he plans to continue on forcing bad shots, then he won't get far at the next level. His defense has been up-and-down for the bulk of the year, but his wingspan should allow him to disrupt passing lanes and help get things going the other way. Muhammad won't come out of the gate and be an impact player as a rookie (few players in this class have a chance at that), but he can develop into a solid offensive option if he's groomed by the right team. The 19-year-old Muhammad had a shot at the top five, but the 20-year-old version probably figures to go around No. 10.

Prospect Profile: Cody Zeller

April 1st, 2013 at 6:59pm CST by Zachary Links

Indiana's season is in the books, but Hoosiers fans will be keeping a close eye on two players in particular as we approach June. Victor Oladipo, a 6'5" walking highlight reel, figures to go in the top ten along with big man Cody Zeller. Nerlens Noel, injury and all, is still likely to be the first center off of the board, but Zeller won't be far behind in a draft class lacking impact big men.

At 7'0", Zeller made an impression right away as a freshman in 2011/12. The center led the team with 15.6 PPG and 6.6 RPG while shooting 62.3 percent from the floor, the fourth best field goal percentage in the nation. After being named the Big Ten's Freshman of the Year and impressing across the board, Zeller would have been a surefire lottery pick. Instead, he chose to came back to IU for a second season. He may not have improved his stock, per se, but it's hard to imagine that it's fallen significantly given the makeup of the 2013 class.

Zeller's return powered Indiana to win the Big Ten title and averaged 16.8 PPG with 8.2 RPG while shooting 57% from the field. He can move on to the NBA knowing that he did a great deal to help his team on the way out, but he's not necessarily leaving on a high note. Syracuse downed Indiana 61-50 on Thursday and a big reason for their W was their ability to take Zeller out of the game. There was no ~60% shooting percentage here as the big man shot just 3-of-11 from the floor. He wasn't stifled by anyone in particular as much as he just seemed overwhelmed by the team pressure the Orange put on him.

Some have slammed his aggressiveness in the wake of last week's tournament exit, but that game wasn't representative of his entire body of work. Zeller definitely has a mean streak and is more than willing to bang with other big men in the paint for loose balls. The shooting performance also wasn't indicative of what he's capable of. Zeller can work well with his back to the basket and has a skillset in that realm that should position him well at the next level.

What hurts him is his play on the other side of the ball. Defensively, Zeller has been able to use his size to frustrate opponents in college. In the NBA, being 7'0" alone won't make you a difference maker. In order to really develop as an all-around player, Zeller will have to – in the words of Hulk Hogan – say his prayers and take his vitamins. If he can't get stronger, then Zeller won't get very far at the next level. That aside, you can still expect Zeller's name to be called in the top ten in this year's draft.

Prospect Profile: Ben McLemore

March 29th, 2013 at 10:16pm CST by Alex Lee

While his college career is likely over – Kansas lost in the Sweet 16 tonight to Michigan in overtime – the biggest of basketball games are still to come for Jayhawks freshman Ben McLemore. The 6-foot-5 silky-smooth shooting guard from St. Louis is one of a handful of candidates to be the first named called at June 27’s NBA Draft. Assuming he declares for the draft – and all indications are that he will – McLemore is a virtual lock to go in the top five.

McLemore, ranked second on the Draft Express Top 100, has everything you want in a shooting guard – elite athleticism, good size/length and picture-perfect form on his jump shot. Using his length, he has shown the ability to be a plus defender. Jayhawks head coach Bill Self described McLemore as the most talented kid he has ever coached. As a freshman, McLemore averaged 15.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2 assists per game.

But the path to get to those solid numbers has been anything but steady for the freshman, perhaps best evidenced by the four games prior to tonight’s contest against Michigan. Against North Carolina last Sunday, McLemore went 0-for-9 from the field and finished with 2 points. His three games before that – 11, 5 and 10 points – gave him a collective 8-for-26 effort from the field over that vital four game span.

It is this inconsistency that has fueled increasing skepticism about whether McLemore is worthy of the draft’s top selection. He clearly possesses all the tools for NBA stardom. In 37 games this year, McLemore topped the 23-point mark eight times, three times dropping 30. But he also scored in single-digits six times.

The looming question on McLemore has begun to proliferate. If this is McLemore against college competition, how long until he can score consistently at the NBA level? Because make no mistake about it, McLemore will have to be a consistent scorer in the NBA to justify where he will be drafted. To his credit, the freshman bounced back against Michigan tonight, hitting four treys en route to 20 points on 8-of-15 shooting in a losing effort.

McLemore’s faults really seem to typecast him in that “long on talent, short on feel” mold. His ball handling, particularly with regard to creating his own shot, needs work. Some question his competitiveness and his feel for the game, though he has shown above average shot selection. It is easy to point to these shortcomings to explain how it’s possible for such a gifted offensive player to disappear at times.

But regardless of the questions about him, those gifts are exactly what will land McLemore a top five selection come June 27. His form, quick release and athleticism give him a “perfect world” ceiling of Ray Allen. He is also likely to get compared to Bradley Beal since he is likely to be drafted in a similar spot and their obvious sharp-shooting similarities. But he has a few inches on Beal and is a more explosive athlete.

With reports of skepticism on the rise, expect McLemore to be a hot topic come the pre-draft workout period. He has tools that will make NBA talent evaluators drool, all he will have to do is convince one of them that he has the mental game to go with it and he will be one of the first names called.

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