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Trade Candidate: Luol Deng

December 6th, 2013 at 9:00am CST by Chuck Myron

Luol Deng looks like a polarizing force in Chicago, where coach Tom Thibodeau is reportedly much more enamored with the 10th-year small forward than the front office is. Deng apparently remains somewhat bitter over the failure of extension talks this past offseason, and acknowledges that the likelihood he’ll be traded increased when Derrick Rose suffered his latest season-ending injury.

Deng, at 28, is averaging career highs in points and assists, and is close to his career-best mark in rebounds per game. A player who is experiencing such success in the prime of his career doesn’t usually find himself on the trade block. That’s nonetheless the situation he appears to be in, with the latest rumor connecting him to the Cavaliers in talks for Dion Waiters. Deng has never played with any other franchise and says he wants that to continue to be the case until he retires, but Deng’s agent, Herb Rudoy, insists his client will test free agency in the summer. Rival executives have estimated Deng’s market value to be anywhere between $11MM and $14MM, and if he continues his strong play this season, he could wind up on the high side of that range. That could have the cost-conscious Bulls scrambling to find some kind of return for him by the trade deadline instead of watching him depart for nothing in the summer.

The Bulls front office is reportedly enamored with Jimmy Butler, and there’s plenty to like. He’s shown ability on both sides of the ball and is averaging 4.8 rebounds in 29.8 minutes per game, not shabby for a 6’7″ shooting guard. Best of all, he’s on a bargain rookie deal this season and next, though Chicago will have to decide on an extension this coming offseason. It’s easy to see how the Bulls could let Deng walk and insert Butler as their starting small forward, making do with a cheap replacement at shooting guard as they’ve done in the recent past with Keith Bogans and Richard Hamilton. Still, deleting a long-tenured Thibodeau favorite who’s made the last two All-Star Games isn’t a move most championship contenders would make.

Bulls management is privately expressing intent to re-sign Deng this summer, according to Grantland’s Zach Lowe, but that may be easier said than done. The Bulls have about $64.1MM committed for 2014/15, not including salaries for their own 2014 first-round pick and the first-rounder that could come their way via the Bobcats. That plus a potential Nikola Mirotic signing could add about $4MM to their commitments. Take away $16.8MM with an amnesty of Carlos Boozer‘s contract, and the Bulls are left with $51.3MM, leaving plenty of room under the projected $75.7MM tax threshold for a new Deng contract. The thornier problem is 2015/16, when the Bulls would have roughly the same amount of existing commitments. That would be the first year of a new, potentially lucrative contract for Butler, demonstrating the possible either-or choice the Bulls face.

Chicago just paid its first luxury tax bill in 2012/13, and I’d be surprised if the team made it a habit. That will probably motivate GM Gar Forman and company to get what they can for Deng at the deadline. The Bulls are reportedly looking for a steal, prioritizing a young player and draft picks, if they trade Deng to an Eastern Conference team. Waiters is a depressed asset who hasn’t lived up to the promise the Cavs saw in him when they drafted him fourth overall last year. Cleveland would have throw more into that deal to make the salaries match, but there could be a workable trade there, at least from Chicago’s standpoint. Waiters would represent the sort of cheap shooting guard option the Bulls have had success with in the past, but unlike Bogans and Hamilton, he’d have upside. I’m not sure if he’d qualify as a steal, at least at this point, but he is a young player who might turn into one.

Of course, if Rose comes back from injury for the playoffs, that could change Chicago’s equation, putting the team back in the title hunt. Perhaps the Bulls would trade with Indiana for Danny Granger, a deal that could give the Bulls a potentially useful veteran player who could help them this season and might be willing to re-sign on the cheap this summer. That’s just my speculation, of course. But financial constraints require creativity, and a that’s what will be required of the Bulls to pull off the right sort of Deng trade.

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2013/14 NBA Trade Candidates

December 2nd, 2013 at 1:33pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2013/14 trade deadline is still about two and a half months away, but that doesn’t mean it’s too early to start considering which players will be on the move this season. Leading up to the deadline, Hoops Rumors will take an in-depth look at a number of players we consider to be trade candidates. These aren’t players who necessarily will be traded by February 20th, but front offices figure to at least listen to offers on these guys, and perhaps even shop them in the coming weeks and months.

Our Trade Candidate pieces explore why a trade might happen, the likelihood of a deal going down, and potential suitors, along with other relevant details. Last season, we profiled guys who were moved before the deadline, such as J.J. Redick and Jose Calderon, along with plenty more players who were eventually dealt in the offseason, including Marcin Gortat, Andrea Bargnani, and Jared Dudley.

A complete list of the players we’ve examined so far for the 2013/14 season is below, in alphabetical order. This list, which will be updated many times before February 20th, can be found in our right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features.” Be sure to keep checking back and clicking on each player’s name to read our thoughts on his trade candidacy:

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Trade Candidate: Jameer Nelson

December 1st, 2013 at 10:16am CST by Chuck Myron

Dwight Howard is long gone from Orlando, but the hangover from the team’s run to the Finals in 2009 remains. GM Rob Hennigan took an aggressive step toward complete overhaul of the roster a few months after he took the job last summer with the Howard trade, but he’s otherwise embarked on a slow rebuild. One of his most curious moves was re-signing Jameer Nelson in the summer of 2012 to a three-year, $25.2MM contract.

The deal came before the Howard trade, so it’s possible that Hennigan brought Nelson back with aspirations of remaining a title contender. It seems more plausible that the Magic simply wanted him around to mentor their young players, since they’re fond of the point guard’s off-court leadership. Regardless, the Magic are stuck with another veteran they’d like to swap for a younger player and Nelson, who turned down a lucrative player option to sign his three-year deal in the hopes he wouldn’t become a trade candidate, finds himself in that very position.

Nelson wants to remain with the Magic for the rest of his career, but he also wants to have a significant role. He has reportedly been upset with his lack of fourth-quarter playing time this season, though his amount of minutes per game is consistent with the level he’s seen ever since taking over as the Magic’s starting point guard back in 2005/06. Orlando has no in-house candidates to replace him in that role, barring its experiment with Victor Oladipo as a point guard, so it’s not as if his presence in the lineup impedes the development of a younger player.

The Magic instead hope to acquire a prospect in return for Nelson, as they’re reportedly seeking a first-round pick in trade talks involving him. That won’t be an easy ransom to extract, considering how highly NBA executives have come to value first-rounders, especially for the prized class of 2014. Nelson’s contract wouldn’t do much to clog another team’s cap beyond this season, since his $8MM salary for next year is only guaranteed for $2MM, but expiring deals aren’t the trade chips they used to be. The shorter contracts brought about by the latest collective bargaining agreement allow more teams to clear cap room every summer without having to give up assets to acquire deals like Nelson’s.

His performance this season could depress his value even further. His PER is at a career-low 12.0, thanks in large measure to his 37.3% shooting, also the worst mark of his career. His three-point shot is off, and he’s also making less than 50% of his shots at the rim for the first time, per NBA.com. It’s just a month into the season, so there’s a chance those numbers could improve over time. Still, it’s been seven years since his assists-to-turnover ratio, currently at 6.1-to-2.9, has been as low as it is, so his struggles aren’t confined to his shot.

The Magic give up nearly seven more points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor compared to when he’s on the bench, according to NBA.com. That’s an astoudingly high number, but it’s not nearly as impressive as the nine point jump in points per 100 possessions Orlando experiences when Nelson is playing. The net effect is that the team has been better off when Nelson is in the lineup, but it should be, considering that E’Twaun Moore, Ronnie Price and Oladipo, a rookie playing out of position, are his backups.

Nelson is nursing a sprained foot, but that minor injury shouldn’t have any significant impact on his trade value. The Magic don’t appear to be in a hurry to get a deal done, and they shouldn’t be, considering his poor start. Hennigan has higher priorities for now as he oversees a roster with other misplaced veterans like Nelson. Arron Afflalo and Glen Davis are trade candidates as well, and the Magic have a little more than a month left to find a taker for Hedo Turkoglu before they’d have to eat the $6MM guarantee on his contract.

Perhaps an another Eastern Conference team sensing an opportunity to steal a high playoff seed among a weak field of contenders will grab Nelson at the trade deadline. Maybe an injury to a point guard on a team with legitimate title hopes prompts a call to Hennigan. Other teams will likely drive the market for Nelson, so the Magic would be wise to see what the market bears and choose the best offer come February.

I don’t think any team will be desperate enough to give up a first-rounder, unless it’s one that’s destined to fall at the very end of the round, but perhaps Hennigan will find an intriguing young player who hasn’t had the chance for much playing time, as he did with Tobias Harris last year. Nelson’s partially guaranteed contract for next year means the Magic probably won’t have to keep him around much longer if they don’t want to, even if they can’t find a trade partner. His leadership ability means he holds value to the Magic’s rebuilding project, so there’s really no need to trade Nelson short of an offer that’s clearly in Orlando’s favor.

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Trade Candidate: Iman Shumpert

November 29th, 2013 at 9:27pm CST by Ryan Raroque

During the summer of 2011, Chauncey Billups – still a member of the Knicks at the time – had participated in some competitive pickup games at the Impact Basketball League in Las Vegas while awaiting a resolution to the NBA lockout. Among those who caught his eye immediately was Iman Shumpert, who had been recently drafted by New York that June and played alongside Billups on his first day of action:

“…I’m just looking forward to playing more with my new teammate Shumpert. He’s very athletic, and I’m just trying to learn his game right now. I’ll only have to play with him a few times and I will see how to best use him. I’m gonna try to make him a star, man.”

Though Billups would eventually be amnestied before the two could suit up for a regular season game together, it wasn’t very long before the Knicks and their fans appeared to see Shumpert as a promising prospect to develop for their future. From having his name chanted at Madison Square Garden during his second game as a rookie and being a mainstay rotation player during the “Linsanity” craze of 2011/12 to helping the Knicks win their first playoff series in over a decade last May, Shumpert has proven to be a key contributor during some of New York’s successful runs.

14 games into his third season in the league, those days of success seem to be a distant memory. Despite averaging a career high 30.1 MPG this season, Shumpert is shooting 38.9% from the field overall, and while that number isn’t too far off from his career average, his 32.4% clip from long distance represents a steep drop from last year (40.2%). Arguably his poorest performance came against the Trail Blazers last week, where he went scoreless with no rebounds or assists in 23 minutes of action. The 6’5 guard has been the hot topic of trade rumors as of late, leading some to speculate the talk as a reason for his poor play. Although he went on to deny such a notion, even Walt Frazier – the Knicks’ TV color commentator – recently surmised that the rumors were an impetus for Shumpert’s lost confidence:

“…Sometimes he doesn’t look like he’s happy out here. Maybe that’s because he heard the rumors he’s being traded. But he’s very stern in his face. It doesn’t look like he’s having fun.’’

Earlier this month, the Knicks had been linked to the Nuggets regarding a potential Shumpert-for-Kenneth Faried swap, although talks didn’t make much progress. Aside from the reported failed attempt to deal Shumpert in a package for Rajon Rondo, another name recently tied to discussions was Jason Thompson of the Kings. Just yesterday, Marc Berman of the New York Post wrote that New York is currently seeking front court help as they look to gauge Iman’s value on the trade market.The former Georgia Tech product is currently on the books for $1.7M this year, likely creating a challenge to find another trade partner who would be able to make a one-for-one swap (that is, unless the Knicks are looking to trade for a player making around the $1.4MM veteran’s minimum or someone on a rookie-scale deal).

Hypothetically speaking, if the Knicks were to pursue Jason Thompson ($5.64MM this year) or a player making similar money, they’ll have to wait until December 15th in order to have the ability to include some of the small contracts they signed over the summer (i.e. Pablo Prigioni, Beno Udrih, or Cole Aldrich to name a few) as a means to make salaries match in a trade. On the other hand, if Andrea Bargnani maintains his current production (14.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 1.2 BPG on 46% shooting from the field) between now and the February deadline, one could argue that Shumpert and Bargnani could make for an intriguing trade package to shop around the league as well.

Although Shumpert may not currently resemble the “star” that Billups had envisioned helping him eventually become, a change of scenery could be what he needs to move past his current struggles. His numbers thus far might be off-putting, but Iman isn’t too far removed from a postseason in which he averaged 9.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.1 SPG and shot nearly 43% from three. With J.R. Smith and Tim Hardaway Jr. on board, New York could arguably afford to part with Iman in favor of a big man that could bolster a front court that includes a recovering Tyson Chandler and minute restrictions on Kenyon Martin and Amar’e Stoudemire.

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Extension/Trade Candidate: Rudy Gay

September 2nd, 2013 at 5:30pm CST by Luke Adams

The last major roster move made by former Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo came prior to 2013's trade deadline, when Toronto sent Jose Calderon to the Pistons and Ed Davis and a draft pick to the Grizzlies in order to land Rudy Gay. Gay is viewed by many as one of the league's more talented scorers, but has seen his shooting percentages and efficiency ratings slide over the last few seasons.

The acquisition of Gay appeared to be a last-ditch effort by Colangelo to save his job, an effort that was ultimately unsuccessful, as the Raptors replaced him with Masai Ujiri this summer. With Colangelo no longer in the picture in Toronto, and Gay headed for free agency as soon as next offseason, it's worth considering exactly how the veteran forward fits in the team's long-term plans.

Several weeks after the deal with the Grizzlies was finalized, a report surfaced suggesting that the Raptors were likely to offer Gay a contract extension when he became eligible. At the time, I looked into the possibility, breaking down the numbers and determining what a max extension for Gay would look like. But with Ujiri calling the shots now in Colangelo's place, it seems highly unlikely that such an offer will be made to Gay anytime soon.

Of course, an extension offer for Gay wouldn't necessarily have to be for the max, but if he didn't receive a substantial offer, the 27-year-old would have no reason to seriously consider it. After all, he has plenty of flexibility when it comes to his free agency — he'll earn about $17.89MM in 2013/14, then will decide between exercising a $19.32MM option for 2014/15 or hitting free agency in search of a new, long-term contract.

It's still too early to tell exactly what Ujiri and the Raptors' new decision-making team thinks of Gay, but they don't seem interested in shopping him yet. The Pistons reportedly offered a pair of expiring contracts for Gay earlier in the offseason, but were quickly shot down by the Raps, who aren't looking to move the UConn product, especially not for such a light return.

There's some optimism from out of Toronto that a surgical procedure on Gay's eyes will help to reverse the trend of his declining shooting percentages. Despite problems with his vision, Gay never felt comfortable wearing goggles or contact lenses, and finally had surgery this summer that the team hopes will make a difference, as head coach Dwane Casey told the Sporting News last month.

"I am keeping my fingers crossed," Casey said. "For some players, they get that done and it is like seeing a new rim. Hopefully, the same thing happens with him."

The Raptors likely won't make any final decisions on Gay until they see how he fares this season, with a full training camp in Toronto, and hopefully with improved vision. As Zach Lowe of Grantland wrote in July, the Raps privately expressed a belief that Gay would opt out of his current deal in the summer of 2014, so this season will be a crucial one for both the team and player.

I don't think the Raptors will make an extension offer, now that Colangelo isn't making Toronto's basketball decisions — if the club decides it wants to hang on to Gay long-term, a new deal in free agency next summer is the more likely scenario. But if the Raptors struggle in the first half, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Gay become one of the biggest names on the trade market for the second straight deadline.

Trading a big-name scorer for a variety of useful parts is nothing new to Ujiri, who completed a similar deal in Denver with Carmelo Anthony. Gay won't have the same sort of trade value that Carmelo did, but Ujiri, the reigning Executive of the Year, has displayed a knack for finding some value for trade assets, as he showed early on with the Raptors when he landed a first-round pick for Andrea Bargnani. It'll be interesting to see how Gay and the Raps come out of the gate this season, since the forward's performance and the team's success (or lack thereof) should play a significant role in determining Gay's future.

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Trade Candidate: Jared Dudley

February 12th, 2013 at 8:54pm CST by Chuck Myron

The Suns wouldn't be averse to trading any of their players, as Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports wrote today, and as they target Iman Shumpert, Al Jefferson, Gordon Hayward and others, Jared Dudley is a name that keeps coming up on Phoenix's end. The 27-year-old swingman is again performing close to the level he attained in last season's career-best campaign, and with an affordable long-term contract, he could be a fit for teams looking for a steady, if unspectacular, role player. 

Dudley has been linked to the Knicks and Jazz in recent days, and the Grizzlies were reportedly insisting that Dudley be included in any offer that would have sent Rudy Gay to the Suns. Among those three teams, he would probably make the most sense in Memphis, where his long-range accuracy (he's made 38.9% of his treys this season) would help a squad that's last in the league in three-pointers made this season. Dudley could provide depth for the Grizzlies, who've continually reduced their forces to shed salary. Even now that Gay is in Toronto, the Grizzlies could slide Dudley's $4.25MM salary into the $7,489,453 trade exception they received in last month's three-team deal, and still have plently of room on the exception and under the tax line to add someone else. The hangup there would probably be over what the Suns would get in return, since Memphis doesn't have much in the way of draft picks to surrender, and giving up a player to get one in return wouldn't solve the team's depth issues.

The Knicks are at the opposite end of the three-point spectrum from the Grizzlies, having made the second-most long balls of any team in the league, so Dudley would likely overlap with existing talent in the Big Apple. Still, too much outside shooting isn't necessarily a problem, and for a high-payroll team like New York, Dudley's contract could be a welcome value. He's set to make the same salary every year through 2016, though the final season of his deal includes an early-termination option. Finding cheap contracts wouldn't really seem like a pressing concern for the Jazz, who have only about $25.3MM in commitments for next season, but GM Dennis Lindsey and company, just like every team's front office, aren't going to turn down a value, particularly if they'd be swapping him out for Gordon Hayward's rookie contract.

Utah is in the bottom third of the league in three-pointers made, but perhaps the reason why Utah and other teams would hesitate to jump at Dudley is that he probably wouldn't really represent a significant all-around upgrade, particularly if he's in the starting lineup. The 22nd pick in the 2007 draft, Dudley set his career mark in points per game at 12.7 last year, his first as a full-time starter. He's at 11.5 PPG this year, with averages of 3.5 rebounds and a career-high 2.6 assists in 29.4 minutes per game. Those conventional statistics suggest mediocrity, and they're backed up by his 15.1 PER, right on the mark for an average player. His presence hasn't been able to lift the Suns out of last place in the Western Conference, and while he could be the missing piece on an established team, Dudley by himself is nothing special.

Teams that can utilize him as a fifth starter alongside a more explosive wing player or use him as a shooter off the bench seem like the right fits. Though his name is not often mentioned when the league's best marksmen are discussed, he's a career 40.5% three-point shooter, and nailed 45.8% of his attempts from behind the arc in 2009/10, the fourth-best percentage in the league that season. He seems like he could be a more inexpensive option for teams going after J.J. Redick, who's making $6.19MM this year in the final season of his contract. Dudley would be a long-term alternative who could also be much easier to obtain, considering the Suns are looking to deal while the Magic seem reluctant to part with Redick. Given the volume of Redick rumors we've seen this season, Dudley's team-friendly pact, and Phoenix's willingness to make changes, I think the Boston College product shouldn't get too comfortable in the warmth of the Valley of the Sun.

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Trade Candidate: Carlos Boozer

February 8th, 2013 at 8:21pm CST by Chuck Myron

The Bulls have been one of the elite teams in the NBA since the summer of 2010, when they missed out on LeBron James and instead added Carlos Boozer and coach Tom Thibodeau. They seem poised to once more make a move toward the top of the Eastern Conference with the impending return of Derrick Rose from injury. Several executives believe they, more than any other team in the Eastern Conference, could have what it takes to knock off the Heat, according to Grantland's Zach Lowe (Twitter link).

So, it's somewhat surprising that they apparently initiated discussions last week with the Raptors about swapping Boozer for Andrea Bargnani. Chicago fans have peppered Bulls.com scribe Sam Smith with potential Boozer trade scenarios nearly as long as Boozer has been in town, and while the 31-year-old power forward hasn't lived up to his five-year, $75MM contract, he has been playing some of his best basketball of late. He averaged 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds in January, well above the 15.3 PPG and 8.9 RPG he's posted over the past two years as a whole. Not coincidentally, the Bulls went 12-4 last month and rekindled talk of title contention.

If the Bulls are serious about the Bargnani deal, they wouldn't appear to be entirely motivated by finances. As Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors noted when he wrote about the rumor this afternoon, the Raptors don't have an expiring contract to aggregate with Bargnani's deal to make the salaries match in such a swap, meaning Chicago would have to take on at least one more player on a multi-year deal. Plus, the trade would short-circuit any chance either team could seek salary relief by amnestying Boozer or Bargnani, as traded players aren't eligible for the amnesty clause.

Bargnani's deal, which has $32.25MM left on it including this year, ends in 2015, the same year Boozer's does. Bargnani also comes with a 5% trade kicker the Bulls would have to pay. Still, he's due about $5MM less per season that Boozer is, and depending on whom the Raptors add to the deal, the Bulls could at least lower their tax bill this season. Chicago is close to $4MM over the tax line, and owner Jerry Reinsdorf has never been a taxpayer, as Mark Deeks of ShamSports documented.

Perhaps the Bulls simply want to sell high on Boozer, believing that he'll revert back to the norm following his recent hot streak. If so, his contract makes it difficult, meaning they'd likely have to take back another sizeable deal that another team doesn't want. Only the Magic have a trade exception large enough to absorb Boozer's $15MM salary this season, but Orlando doesn't make much sense for him. The Nets appear willing to dangle Kris Humphries and his $12MM salary, but I don't think two teams that entered Friday in a tie for fourth place in the Eastern Conference would be motivated to help each other out. That's part of the problem with teams that might have interest in Boozer from a basketball standpoint, as Eastern contenders like the Heat and Celtics would like to boost their front lines, but probably not in any way that enhances Chicago's title chances.

If the Bulls do trade Boozer this year, it would have to be with a team that's not afraid to take on long-term commitments. With so many franchises trying to clear cap space for either this summer or 2014, when King James could hit the market, there aren't a ton of options. In an injury-plagued season, the Timberwolves are looking toward the future and it seems like they're ready to make a move, so maybe they'd be willing to consider a core of Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio and Boozer, but I doubt it. Unless the Bulls get something done with the Raptors, I think Boozer stays put, at least until the summer, when Chicago might have a field of trading partners wider than the one out there now.

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Trade Candidate: Josh Smith

February 3rd, 2013 at 10:30am CST by Chuck Myron

Josh Smith might be the best player not named Dwight Howard or Chris Paul on an expiring contract this season, but until last month, he seemed destined to remain in Atlanta past the trade deadline, and perhaps longer. That all seemed to change January 16th, when the Hawks suspended Smith for a game and fined him an undisclosed amount. That same day, we heard that agent Wallace Prather met with Hawks GM Danny Ferry about Smith's frustration with the team's play, and Ken Berger of CBSSports.com reported the team had discussed its power forward in trade talks with other teams. Since then, the Smith rumor mill has cranked into high gear.

There's little consensus on just where Smith will end up once the dust settles after February 21st. Hoops Rumors readers were nearly split down the middle when we asked a couple of weeks ago whether he would be traded. Reports that seem to indicate the team is leaning toward trading the 27-year-old are juxtaposed by others that suggest the Hawks don't want to deal him away, even if they have a good read on where to send him should they feel compelled to part ways. Complicating matters is the 15% trade kicker on his $13.2MM salary that any team acquiring him would have to pay. Though the ninth-year veteran is an intriguing talent, trade partners are apparently skittish about taking him on considering he could leave as an unrestricted free agent in the summer, especially since he feels he's in line for a maximum-salary deal. 

Smith, who has never been an All-Star, doesn't fit the classic profile of a max player. His scoring and rebounding numbers (16.9 PPG/8.5 RPG) have fallen off after last season's career highs (18.8/9.6). His 45.1% field goal percentage is his worst since 2006/07, and his free-throw shooting has plummeted to 49.7%, far beneath his previous low for a season of 58.8% in 2008/09. He's also averaging 3.1 turnovers per game, close to another career worst. He's blocking shots more often than he has in the last five years, and he's dishing out nearly a full assist more per game than his career average. Still, this season has hardly been the kind of resume-building walk year he probably imagined.

There have been conflicting reports on whether the Suns are going after him, with a package centered around Marcin Gortat and expiring deals. Whether or not Phoenix has interest, I'm not sure Gortat, whose numbers are also off this season, would entice Ferry to sacrifice the team's ample cap space for 2013/14. Gortat is due $7.7MM in the final year of his deal next season, and though acquiring him would leave the Hawks open to pursuing the ballyhooed free agent class of 2014, it seems they'd encounter plenty of competition for that bunch. 

The Bobcats and Rockets also apparently have interest in Smith, and Houston is especially intriguing, since the soon-to-be free agent reportedly counts the team among his favored destinations, along with the Grizzlies and Mavs. Rockets GM Daryl Morey seems perpetually motivated to make a splash, but his team isn't flush with the kind of expiring deals that Ferry would likely want in return for Smith. 

As Marc Stein of ESPN.com wrote this weekend, the Hawks are reluctant to compromise this summer's cap space, which could allow them to sign a pair of max players. They're poised to make a run at Howard and Paul, though it's unclear if either of them would leave their respective teams in Los Angeles, much less sign with Atlanta. Still, when Smith got married, Howard served as his best man, and Smith has spoken fondly about reuniting with his former AAU teammate. That connection would only be meaningful to the Hawks if Smith is still around, and there's no guarantee he will be past July 1st. Trading him away would ensure he won't there to recruit Howard, however, so my guess is that unless a team bowls Ferry over, the GM will be content to ride it out this season with his athletic forward, and willingly accept cap space as consolation if Smith signs elsewhere. 

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Trade Candidate: Timofey Mozgov

January 29th, 2013 at 2:47pm CST by Luke Adams

There are plenty of big names rumored to be on the trade block as we approach this year's deadline, including Rudy Gay and Pau Gasol. Other players, such as Jose Calderon and J.J. Redick, are intriguing not just because of their expiring contracts, but because they could be the final piece of the puzzle for a contending team.

Timofey Mozgov, like Calderon and Redick, is on an expiring contract, but he's unlikely to be a real game-changer if he's moved at the deadline. Still, Grantland's Zach Lowe referred to the Nuggets big man as one of the league's "most available" players back in December, so that certainly makes him a trade candidate, even if he's not one of the more exciting ones out there.

Mozgov, 26, initially came to the Nuggets two years ago as part of the blockbuster deal that sent Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks. While Mozgov was hardly the centerpiece of that trade, he was a piece the Nuggets insisted be included, due to a belief that he could develop into a solid big man. While the Russian has shown flashes of that promise in his two seasons with the Nuggets, there just aren't enough minutes to go around anymore now that Denver's frontline includes JaVale McGee and Kosta Koufos, two young centers that have outproduced Mozgov.

Mozgov's best season came in 2011/12, when he averaged 5.4 PPG and 4.1 RPG while playing 15.6 minutes per contest. Those numbers won't turn many heads, but Mozgov's per-minute rates were solid, and he started 35 of his 44 games for the Nuggets, meaning he wasn't just playing against other teams' second-stringers. At 7'1", he should certainly have some appeal to teams in need of size in the middle, and according to Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post, Denver has been fielding plenty of calls about Mozgov since the beginning of the season.

One team that's been linked to Mozgov as a potential suitor is the Heat, a club that could use one more big body in the frontcourt to help Chris Bosh and its bigs shoulder the rebounding load. But as Chris Tomasson of FOX Sports Florida pointed out earlier this month, there's not a perfect match between the two teams. Norris Cole, Miami's most appealing trade asset, doesn't fill a need for a Nuggets team that has Ty Lawson and Andre Miller at the point, and Cole's modest salary wouldn't be enough to match Mozgov's $3.14MM mark. I'm sure the Nuggets, who could use a shooter, would love to add Ray Allen ($3.09MM), but that's not the sort of price the Heat would want to pay for Mozgov.

Besides Miami, there are no particularly obvious suitors for Mozgov. The Warriors could be a fit if Andrew Bogut continues to be nagged by injuries, and the Celtics could use another big. But both teams are up against hard caps, making it difficult to add any salary, and Boston's plans have likely changed now that Rajon Rondo is out for the season. The Suns and Rockets, with cap space to absorb Mozgov's salary, could kick the tires — if they were to acquire Mozgov and liked what they saw over the season's final couple months, they'd have the first crack to re-sign him in July.

As Dempsey wrote in his previously-linked piece, Mozgov appears unlikely to remain in Denver past February 21st, simply because the Nuggets don't have room for him in their rotation. Nonetheless, it doesn't seem as if there will be a huge market for the big man. If he's moved and it's not part of a bigger deal, it's probably unrealistic to expect Denver to land much more than a second-round pick or a borderline rotation player in return.

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Trade Candidate: Marcin Gortat

January 22nd, 2013 at 7:18pm CST by Chuck Myron

One of the reasons Alvin Gentry is no longer coaching the Suns is reportedly because the team wants to focus on developing younger talent, and doesn't think Gentry's the guy to lead that effort. Marcin Gortat, who turns 29 next month, isn't exactly a perfect fit in a youth movement, either, so it's reasonable to expect he could be the next guy heading out of Phoenix. It's harder to get rid of a player than it is to dump a coach, but despite a regression in his performance this year, there should be no shortage of teams lining up to acquire the 6'11" center.

Gortat is coming off a career year in 2011/12, when he put up 15.4 points and 10.0 rebounds per game in his first full season as a starter. This year, those numbers are down to 11.6 PPG and 9.0 RPG, but he's not the first player who hasn't looked as sharp when he's no longer part of nightly pick-and-rolls with Steve Nash. Gortat is seeing 9.4 shots per game as opposed to 11.7 last season in a nearly idential amount of minutes. Still, his 16.5 PER is lower than in any of his six NBA seasons, aside from 2009/10. The sudden lack of efficiency probably can't be pinned on Gortat breaking down, as he hasn't missed a game the past two seasons, so it likely has to do either with the absence of Nash or the indifference that comes from playing on a last-place team.

Gortat vented his frustration earlier this season about the Suns' style of play and his role in the offense to a reporter in his native Poland, and he turned down Phoenix's offer of a contract extension over the summer. Still, he said he won't ask for a trade, feeling an obligation to stick it out with his struggling team.

The Suns might let him off that hook, and if they do, the Celtics have been linked to him as a potential suitor. That stands to reason, given Boston's rebounding deficiencies and lack of a true center. The C's could give up someone from their crowded backcourt — perhaps Courtney Lee, who was reportedly drawing interest around the league a couple of weeks ago. No one has collected fewer rebounds this year than the Heat, who would no doubt love to bring Gortat back to Florida, but they probably don't have enough assets to engage the Suns other than their three stars, whom they're reluctant to break up. The Rockets have been eyeing Gortat as well, and they certainly have enough young players to fit Phoenix's new player development focus, but I'm not sure the Suns would be willing to give up Gortat for anyone Houston would probably dangle.  

What the Suns do with Gortat before the trade deadline will have a lot to say about the direction of the franchise. If they deal him, it clearly signals full-scale rebuilding, a step forward with the process that began when they let Nash go last year. If they keep him, it either means they see him as a building block for the future or believe they'll get a better deal for him next year, when he'll be on an expiring contract. Much will depend on the market, but competent NBA centers are usually in high demand. With whispers that the jobs of basketball president Lon Babby and GM Lance Blanks are in jeopardy, I'd bet that a team will come forward with enough of an enticement to get the Suns to trade Gortat before this year's deadline passes.

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