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The way the 2003 draft lottery played out, the Cavaliers and Grizzlies were the final two teams with a chance at the No. 1 pick, which would undoubtedly be used to select LeBron James. The pick, and LeBron, went to Cleveland, of course, much to the chagrin of then-Grizzlies GM Jerry West. But, heading into the lottery that night, the team that had the best chance of keeping LeBron from the Cavs was the Nuggets.

Denver and Cleveland tied for the worst record in 2002/03. Under today's rules, a coin flip would have given one team a slight edge, but at the time, the Cavs and Nuggets had equal, 22.5% chances at the top pick. No other team had better than a 15.7% shot. The Grizzlies, with just a 6.4% chance of pulling it off, nearly did so, but the No. 1 pick, and the prize of a clear shot at LeBron, wound up in the hands of the Cavs.

The next year, the Magic converted their league-leading 25% odds into the No. 1 pick and Dwight Howard, but since then, no team with the best chance of winning the lottery has done so. The Magic once more have the best chance, at 25%, of coming away with the top pick, and we'll see on Tuesday whether they break a nine-year jinx for the team in pole position on lottery night.

In the meantime, here's a list of the teams with the best chances of winning the lottery, the team that actually won the lottery, and the No. 1 pick from each of the past 10 years. Feel free to wonder what it would be like if it were the Heat, instead of the Bulls team they just eliminated, who endured a season without Derrick Rose. Or how well the Grizzlies would be doing if they had secured the No. 1 pick in 2007 and used it on Kevin Durant, the superstar they just eliminated in the playoffs, instead of Greg Oden. Or whether former Timberwolves GM David Kahn, who endured heavy criticism after taking Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn back-to-back in 2009, would have hesitated to take Kyrie Irving in 2011.

Clearly, there's a lot of luck involved in the draft, and never more so than on lottery night:

2012
Best chance: Bobcats (25.0%)
Winner: Pelicans (13.7% — 4th best chance)
No. 1 pick: Anthony Davis 

2011
Best chance: Timberwolves (25.0%)
Winner: Cavaliers (2.8% — 8th best chance)
No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving 

2010
Best chance: Nets (25.0%)
Winner: Wizards (10.3% — 5th best chance)
No. 1 pick: John Wall 

2009
Best chance: Kings (25.0%)
Winner: Clippers (17.7% — 3rd best chance)
No. 1 pick: Blake Griffin 

2008
Best chance: Heat (25.0%)
Winner: Bulls (1.7% — 9th best chance)
No. 1 pick: Derrick Rose 

2007
Best chance: Grizzlies (25.0%)
Winner: Trail Blazers (5.3% — 6th best chance)
No. 1 pick: Greg Oden 

2006
Best chance: Trail Blazers (25.0%)
Winner: Raptors (8.8% — 5th best chance)
No. 1 pick: Andrea Bargnani 

2005
Best chance: Hawks (25.0%)
Winner: Bucks (6.3% — 6th best chance)
No. 1 pick: Andrew Bogut 

2004
Best chance: Magic (25.0%)
Winner: Magic
No. 1 pick: Dwight Howard 

2003
Best chance: Cavaliers and Nuggets (22.5%)
Winner: Cavaliers
No. 1 pick: LeBron James 

DraftExpress was used in the creation of this post.

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Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard was the lone unanimous selection to the NBA's All-Rookie team, the league announced. He received the maximum 29 first-team votes from the league's coaches. All 30 head coaches voted, though Blazers coach Terry Stotts wasn't allowed to vote for a player from his own team. Lillard led all rookies in points, assists and minutes per game.

Here are the results, with the point totals in parentheses (two points for first-place vote, one point for second-place vote):

First team:

• Damian Lillard (58) 
• Bradley Beal (57)
• Anthony Davis (57)
• Dion Waiters (50)
• Harrison Barnes (47)

Second team:

• Andre Drummond (35)
• Jonas Valanciunas (31)
• Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (29)
• Kyle Singler (17)
• Tyler Zeller (15)

Fifth overall pick Thomas Robinson, drafted by the Kings and traded at the deadline to the Rockets, was the only player among the first seven picks from last June who didn't make either All-Rookie squad. The second team includes two players, Valanciunas and Singler, taken in the 2011 draft who played overseas for a season before coming stateside this year.

Unlike the voting discrepancies for the Defensive Player of the Year award and All-Defensive Teams, the coaches and media were in lockstep for the rookies. The five members of the All-Rookie First Team were the top five vote-getters in Rookie of the Year balloting. 

The NBA has officially announced its First and Second All-Defensive teams for the 2012/13 season, as voted on by the league's 30 coaches. Here are the results, with the point totals in parentheses (two points for first-place vote, one point for second-place vote):

First team:

• Guard: Tony Allen (53)
• Guard: Chris Paul (37)
• Forward: LeBron James (52)
• Forward: Serge Ibaka (46)
• Center: Tyson Chandler / Joakim Noah (24 each)

Second team:

• Guard: Avery Bradley (25)
• Guard: Mike Conley (19)
• Forward: Paul George (27)
• Forward: Tim Duncan (20)
• Center: Marc Gasol (12)

For the second straight season, the voting by the coaches differed significantly from votes cast by the media for Defensive Player of the Year. A season ago, Defensive Player of the Year Tyson Chandler didn't earn a spot on either All-Defensive team, while this season, Marc Gasol was beaten out in voting by fellow centers Joakim Noah and Chandler.

You can check out the top five vote-getters for Defensive Player of the Year and the rest of this year's awards right here.

There will be at least seven teams changing coaches this offseason, with six current openings to go with the Cavaliers' hiring of Mike Brown. Last summer, the coaching market was much less volatile. Only three clubs changed coaches, while another two removed interim tags from the coaches already in place. With a season's worth of results, here's a look at last year's moves:

• Mike Woodson began the offseason as interim coach of the Knicks, and the team kept him on board with a three-year deal worth about $12MM. He led New York to its first division title in 19 years. Woodson is the only coach on this list still alive in the playoffs.
• The Wizards elected to retain interim coach Randy Wittman, giving him a two-year deal. Wittman's name was mentioned among coaches on shaky ground early this season, as the Wizards started 4-28, but the team played .500 ball from that point forward, buoyed by the return of John Wall.
• The Bobcats made an unconventional choice, hiring St. John's assistant Mike Dunlap for the head coaching job in Charlotte. The team showed improvement from the league's all-time worst winning percentage in 2011/12, climbing out of last place with a three-game winning streak to close the season. Still, Dunlap clashed with players, and the Bobcats fired him after just one season.
• New Magic GM Rob Hennigan called upon his history with the Spurs to hire San Antonio assistant Jacque Vaughn as Orlando's head coach. Less than two weeks later, Hennigan traded Dwight Howard to the Lakers, and Vaughn was left with a roster that finished with the worst record in the league.
• The Trail Blazers were another team changing both GM and coach. Front office boss Neil Olshey, fresh off his jump from the Clippers, chose former Mavericks assistant Terry Stotts to coach Portland. The team's bench was a weakness all season, and thanks to a late-season slump, the Blazers finished with a winning percentage (.402) inferior to last year's (.424).

Note that this list doesn't include coaches who were hired at midseason. The Lakers, Nets, Bucks and Suns all made changes while the 2012/13 was in progress.

We're still awaiting word on this season's All-NBA, All-Rookie, and All-Defensive squads, but all the individual awards have been officially announced by the league. Here's a rundown of the top performers of the 2012/13 season, including the top five vote-getters for each award:

Most Valuable Player:

1. LeBron James (Heat)
2. Kevin Durant (Thunder)
3. Carmelo Anthony (Knicks)
4. Chris Paul (Clippers)
5. Kobe Bryant (Lakers)

Sixth Man of the Year:

1. J.R. Smith (Knicks)
2. Jamal Crawford (Clippers)
3. Jarrett Jack (Warriors)
4. Kevin Martin (Thunder)
5. Ryan Anderson (Pelicans)

Defensive Player of the Year:

1. Marc Gasol (Grizzlies)
2. LeBron James (Heat)
3. Serge Ibaka (Thunder)
4. Joakim Noah (Bulls)
5. Tony Allen (Grizzlies)

Rookie of the Year:

1. Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers)
   
2. Anthony Davis (Pelicans)
3. Bradley Beal (Wizards)
4. Andre Drummond (Pistons)
5. Dion Waiters (Cavaliers)

Most Improved Player:

1. Paul George (Pacers)
   
2. Greivis Vasquez (Pelicans)
3. Larry Sanders (Bucks)
4. Nikola Vucevic (Magic)
5. Jrue Holiday (76ers)

Coach of the Year:

1. George Karl (Nuggets)
   
2. Erik Spoelstra (Heat)
3. Mike Woodson (Knicks)
4. Gregg Popovich (Spurs)
5. Frank Vogel (Pacers)

Executive of the Year:

1. Masai Ujiri (Nuggets)
   
2. Gary Sacks (Clippers)
3. (tie) Daryl Morey (Rockets) / Glen Grunwald (Knicks)
4. (tie) R.C. Buford (Spurs) / Pat Riley (Heat)
5. Bob Myers (Warriors)

If you missed it when we unveiled it last month, be sure to check out Hoops Rumors' new Agency Database. Over the last several months, we have attempted to identify and confirm the representation for each current NBA player, as well as many players who have appeared in the league recently and others who will enter this year's draft.

Our Agency Database can be found anytime on the right sidebar under the "Hoops Rumors Features" menu. It can also be sorted and filtered by player, team, and agency to easily find a variety of information. For instance, if you're interested in finding the representation for the players currently on the Spurs' roster, you can filter by team to create this list.

We are continuing to work toward making the database 100% complete and accurate, so if you have any corrections or omissions, please email us at hoopsdatabase@gmail.com.

Earlier today, we passed along word that George Karl was named Coach of the Year, rounded up a few notes out of the Northwest Division, and previewed the offseason for the Rockets. Now let's check out a few more Western Conference items:

• Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com wonders if Nate Robinson could be a fit for the Mavericks in free agency this summer or whether Robinson's postseason performance will price him out of Dallas' plans.
• After taking over as the Timberwolves' new team president, Flip Saunders didn't waste any time instituting some changes to Minnesota's front office. As an Associated Press report (via NBA.com) notes, international scouting coordinator Pete Philo, who helped the team land Ricky Rubio and Alexey Shved, was among the cuts.
• The Trail Blazers should test the market for a potential LaMarcus Aldridge trade this summer while his value is high, according to John Canzano of the Oregonian.
• Bob Young of the Arizona Republic has a suggestion for newly-appointed Suns GM Ryan McDonough: Hire Jazz assistant Jeff Hornacek as Phoenix's new head coach.

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The NBA introduced the Gilbert Arenas provision in the 2005 Collective Bargaining Agreement as a way to help teams to keep their young restricted free agents who aren't coming off rookie scale contracts. It was named after Gilbert Arenas, an Early Bird free agent for the Warriors in 2003, who signed an offer sheet with the Wizards starting at about $8.5MM. Because Golden State could only offer Arenas a first-year salary of about $4.9MM using the Early Bird exception, the Warriors were unable to match the offer sheet and lost Arenas to Washington.

The Arenas provision limits the first-year salary that teams can offer restricted free agents who have only been in the league for one or two years. The starting salary for an offer sheet can't exceed the amount of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which allows the player's original team to use its MLE to match it. Otherwise, a team without the necessary cap space or exceptions would be powerless to keep its player, like the Warriors were with Arenas.

A rival offer sheet can still have an average annual salary that exceeds the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, however. The annual raises are limited to 4.5% between years one and two, and 4.1% between years three and four, but a significant raise can be included between the second and third years of the offer. A team's cap space dictates the average annual salary limit for the entire contract, since the average salary still has to fit under the cap. The Rockets had enough cap space last summer to make a pair of sizable offers, to Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik, that fell under the Arenas provision.

Both Lin and Asik were restricted free agents coming off their second seasons in the league, with the Knicks and Bulls, respectively. Their previous clubs owned their Non-Bird rights, but the Non-Bird exception certainly wouldn't have been enough to match the twin three-year, $25,123,938 offers they received from the Rockets. The cap hit for the Rockets is $8,374,646 in each season of their deals. But, thanks to the Arenas provision, the cap hit for the Knicks and Bulls would only have been $5MM in the first season, and $5.225MM in the second. The third season was what scared New York and Chicago off, since it would have entailed a nearly $15MM cap hit, as detailed here:

Because the first-year salary of the offer sheet doesn't exceed the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, the Knicks and Bulls could have used their mid-level exceptions to match, even though that big a third-year raise wouldn't typically be permitted when using the mid-level. The uneven amount in the third season reflects the amount of cap space the Rockets had to make the offers. The Rockets could have included a fourth season on both deals if they had additional cap room.

For 2013/14, the mid-level exception will be slightly larger, with a starting salary of $5.15MM instead of $5MM, so clubs will have a little more flexibility to keep their free agents using the Arenas provision. Still, just because a team is given the opportunity to use the Arenas provision to keep its restricted free agent doesn't mean it will necessarily have the means. Here are a few situations in which the Arenas provision wouldn't help a team keep its restricted free agent:

• If the team only had the taxpayer mid-level exception ($3.183MM) available, it would be unable to match an offer sheet for a Non-Bird free agent if the starting salary exceeded the taxpayer MLE amount.
• If the team used its mid-level exception on another player, it would be unable to match an offer sheet for a Non-Bird free agent.
• If the player has three years of NBA experience, the Arenas provision would not apply — only players with one or two years in the league are eligible. This is why many teams, as a matter of practice, sign second-round picks and undrafted rookies to three-year contracts with team options in the second and third seasons. This way, the team has the player's full Bird rights if it wishes to re-sign him.

Luke Adams contributed to this post, which was initially published on May 9th, 2012.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon's Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.