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NBA Execs Expecting Quiet Deadline

Dwight Howard. Pau Gasol. Rajon Rondo. Monta Ellis. There has been no shortage of stars identified as potential trade candidates in the weeks leading up to the 2012 trade deadline. But with just one week left for teams to work out deals, there seems to be a growing sense that this season's deadline will be a quiet one. As a source told Sam Amico of FOX Sports Ohio (Twitter link), "Fans want trades. GMs don't."

Teams may be reluctant to make major deals this season in part because of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement and the compressed lockout-season schedule. Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld tweets that limited practice time and a later-than-usual trade deadline will give clubs less time to incorporate new acquisitions into their systems before the playoffs get underway. Chris Mannix of SI.com (Twitter link), meanwhile, alludes to uncertainty among general managers about what the deadline will bring, since many teams seem unwilling to take on salary — perhaps a result of the new CBA's increased restrictions on teams above the luxury tax threshold.

There are still seven days for GMs to talk trades, and I expect things to heat up as next Thursday approaches. Underperforming teams will start feeling more pressure to make moves, and perhaps they'll become a little more willing to include an extra piece or two in their trade offers. But, for all the rumors we've heard involving stars like Howard, Gasol, and Rondo, this year's deadline may not feature the sort of blockbusters we saw last season, when Carmelo Anthony and Deron Williams were on the move.

Recent Deadline Deals With Playoff Impact

In 2006, the Heat acquired veteran shooting guard Derek Anderson at the deadline to add depth to a roster led by Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O’Neal. The Heat won the NBA title that year, but since then, no team that dealt for anyone within a week of the trade deadline has gone on to win the championship. Still, there have been a few players acquired at the deadline since then who’ve made their presence felt on teams that have advanced in the playoffs the same year. Let’s take a look at recent deals that have had immediate playoff impact here:

  • The same year the Heat picked up Anderson, Cavs GM Danny Ferry traded Mike Wilks and cash to Seattle for Ronald Murray, better known as Flip. He helped them into the playoffs for the first time in the LeBron James era, and played more postseason minutes than anyone on the team except LeBron and Eric Snow, averaging 8.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 1.6 APG as the Cavs beat the Wizards in the first round and took top-seeded Detroit to seven games in the conference semis.
  • Ferry and the Cavs were active again in 2008, this time in a major way. They picked up Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West in a three-team deal with the Bulls and Sonics. Wallace, Szczerbiak and West made up three-fifths of the team’s starting lineup. Both West and Szczerbiak averaged 10.8 PPG in the playoffs, tying them for third on the team behind LeBron and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Wallace was the team’s third leading postseason rebounder at 6.5 a night, and averaged more than one block every night playing just 23.4 MPG. Smith averaged 6.6 PPG and 4.6 RPG and teamed with Anderson Varejao to give the Cavs plenty of size off the bench as they again knocked off the Wizards and went seven games with the eventual champion Celtics.
  • No list of meaningful moves would be complete without an entry from R.C. Buford and the Spurs. In 2008, San Antonio dealt Francisco Elson, Brent Barry and a 2009 first-round pick to the Sonics for Kurt Thomas. The veteran big man started eight of the 17 playoff games the Spurs played that season, averaging 15.8 MPG, 4.1 PPG and 4.9 RPG as San Antonio survived a seven-game challenge from the upstart Hornets to get to the Western Conference Finals.
  • When Jameer Nelson dislocated his shoulder and suffered a torn labrum in early February against Dallas in 2009, playing in June seemed out of the question for the Magic. GM Otis Smith traded Brian Cook to Houston at the deadline for Rafer Alston and suddenly Orlando had the point guard who would help them get to the Finals. Alston started every game of the playoffs, even after Nelson returned in the Finals, and averaged 12.2 PPG and 4.1 APG. Curiously, he was shipped to New Jersey just days after the Finals ended, and the Magic haven’t been back since.
  • The loophole Ferry and the Cavs used in 2010 to improve their team at the deadline without ultimately giving up much has been closed in the new collective bargaining agreement. Cleveland picked up Antawn Jamison from the Wizards in return for Zydrunas Ilgauskas, the rights to Emir Preldzic and a 2010 first-rounder. Ilgauskas was bought out by the Wizards and returned to the Cavs a month later, which he wouldn’t be able to do under the new rules. Jamison became Cleveland’s starting power forward and was the team’s second-leading postseason scorer in 2010, averaging 15.3 PPG and 7.4 RPG. The advantage the Cavs gained with Ilgauskas was minimal, however, as he put up just 1.7 PPG and 1.6 RPG in 9.9 MPG off the bench.
  • We’ll include this one because it came tantalizingly close to qualifying as a deadline pickup for a championship team. Instead, the Celtics and GM Danny Ainge fell in Game 7 of the Finals to the Lakers after acquiring Nate Robinson and Marcus Landry from the Knicks in February 2010 for Eddie House, J.R. Giddens, Bill Walker and a second-round pick. Landry only played one regular season game for the Celtics, and while Robinson had his moments in the playoffs, he averaged just 4.2 PPG in 7.5 minutes a night.
  • No one thought Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace would have an impact on the playoffs last year when picked up Shane Battier and Ishmael Smith from the Rockets in exchange for his unfortunate former No. 2 pick Hasheem Thabeet, DeMarre Carroll and a future first-rounder. That was before Battier played more postseason minutes than any other Memphis reserve, averaging 5.5 PPG and 4.0 RPG for an eighth-seeded Grizzlies that fell just one game shy of the Western Conference Finals. We’ll see if Battier can provide a similar boost for the Heat this year.
  • In a trade that looks even better now, Thunder GM Sam Presti gave his team an inside presence for the stretch run last year when they got Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson from the Celtics in exchange for Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic, a first-round draft pick and cash. Perkins started every postseason game at center and gave Oklahoma City 4.5 PPG and 6.1 RPG, to go along with defense and championship experience. The Thunder advanced in the postseason for the first time since moving from Seattle.

Falk on Lockout, LeBron, Howard

One-time superagent David Falk is down to eight NBA clients, but as the man who negotiated the contracts of Michael Jordan, Patrick Ewing and countless other superstars of years gone by, his words still carry some clout. He spoke with Sam Amick of SI.com and shared his thoughts on some of the league's current issues. Some highlights:

  • Falk says he wasn't part of a group of agents trying to unseat players union executive director Billy Hunter during the lockout this summer, but believes the union suffers from a lack of solidarity and that Hunter is reluctant to accept help. He believes the union and agents should cooperate more.
  • The rookie wage scale and other rigid salary structures have pressured many agents to pay players and their relatives, friends and other associates to win clients because there's little agents can do to differentiate themselves, Falk says.
  • The public relations disaster that resulted from the televising of LeBron James' "Decision" demonstrates how many star players have been managing their agents, and not the other way around.
  • In the digital age, Dwight Howard doesn't need to be in a major media center, like rumored destinations Brooklyn or Los Angeles, to grow his brand.

 

Players Who Can’t Be Traded Yet

As of March 1st, most players who signed free agent contracts during the offseason became eligible to be traded. However, there are still a handful of players who can't be included in any deals, due to CBA restrictions.

Unrestricted free agents who signed later than January 1st cannot be dealt until two months after their signing date. Restricted free agents who signed for more than 120% what they made last season and whose teams are over the salary cap cannot be traded for three months after their signing date. In some cases, those restrictions will be lifted after the March 15th trade deadline, in which case the player is ineligible to be dealt this season.

Taking into account the CBA rules, here's a rundown of when the league's more recent signees can included in trades:

March 4th
Nate Robinson
(Warriors)

March 6th
Yi Jianlian
(Mavericks)

March 10th
Mario Chalmers
(Heat)
Jonas Jerebko (Pistons)
Thaddeus Young (76ers)

March 11th
Luc Mbah a Moute
(Bucks)

March 13th
Marc Gasol
(Grizzlies)
DeAndre Jordan (Clippers)

Can't be traded this season
Arron Afflalo (Nuggets)
DeMarre Carroll (Jazz)
Erick Dampier (Hawks)
Kenyon Martin (Clippers)
Joel Przybilla (Trail Blazers)
Walker Russell Jr. (Pistons)
Greg Smith (Rockets)
Ishmael Smith (Magic)
J.R. Smith (Knicks)
Rodney Stuckey (Pistons)
Lance Thomas (Hornets)

10-Day Contract Update

Since February 6th, NBA teams have been permitted to sign free agents to 10-day contracts, providing roster depth and an opportunity to get a brief look at a new player. Teams are allowed to sign a player to two 10-day contracts (not necessarily consecutively). After those two deals expire, the player must be signed for the remainder of the season or become a free agent.

A number of teams have taken advantage of 10-day contracts over the last few weeks, so let's catch up on the status of the players who have signed these temporary deals this season:

Active

Expired

What March 1st Means For The NBA

Ah, Leap Day. Most years, we'd already have flipped the calendar to March by now, but 2012 gives us that extra day in February, which may be either a blessing and a curse for various NBA teams and players. March 1st represents an important date for the Association for a number of reasons, so let's run through them:

Offseason signees can be traded

One of this season's rules, under the league's new Collective Bargaining Agreement, permits teams to trade recently-signed free agents after two months or on March 1st, whichever date is later. So players who signed as unrestricted free agents before the season got underway will all become eligible to be traded starting on March 1st. If the Magic want to include Glen Davis or Jason Richardson in a Dwight Howard trade, they could do it tomorrow, but not today.

For some players, less than two months have passed since they signed their current contracts. In those cases, they won't be eligible to be traded quite yet. For instance, someone like Nate Robinson, who signed with the Warriors on January 4th, could be included in a trade as of March 4th. Players like Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith, who signed as free agents in February, won't be eligible to be traded this season, since the March 15th deadline will have passed before they reach that two-month mark. Some restricted free agents also won't be eligible to be dealt until later in March because of certain CBA rules, as Marc Stein of ESPN.com outlined earlier this month.

With restrictions on dozens of players set to be lifted tomorrow, league executives are anticipating an increase in trade discussions over the next two weeks.

Restricted free agents can't sign offer sheets

We've discussed this point extensively when it comes to Wilson Chandler, the only big-name restricted free agent to return from overseas early enough to sign an offer sheet. Starting tomorrow, Chandler won't be eligible to sign an offer sheet with a team besides the Nuggets. If he isn't able to secure a rival offer, Chandler will only be able to play for the Nuggets this season. Since Denver has shown no interest in a rest-of-season deal, Chandler's options would be limited to either signing a multiyear deal (with little leverage), or sitting out the season and exploring restricted free agency again this summer.

Other players still playing overseas, such as Aaron Brooks, will also be affected by this rule. When Brooks returns, he'll only be eligible to rejoin the Suns. If Brooks' Chinese team makes a deep run in the CBA playoffs and Brooks isn't cleared to return to the NBA until late March, he may simply to decide to sit out the rest of the season and become a restricted free agent again this offseason.

The Sacramento deadline

The NBA had set a March 1st deadline for negotiations on Sacramento's arena proposal. Fortunately, it appears an agreement is in place to keep the Kings in Sacramento long-term.

Hoops Rumors On Facebook/Twitter/RSS

With the trade deadline fast approaching, there are a number of different ways you can follow Hoops Rumors to keep tabs on the latest NBA news and rumors.

You can Like us on Facebook, and receive headlines and links for all our posts via your Facebook account. You can also follow us on Twitter to have all our posts and updates sent directly to your Twitter feed.

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If you prefer to receive updates only on roster moves such as signings, cuts, and trades, you can follow our transactions-only feeds via RSS and Twitter.

Largest Expiring Contracts Of 2011/12

While a team may not be thrilled to see one of its top players approaching free agency, expiring contracts are a valuable asset in the NBA. If a team has one or more large contracts set to expire, it stands to gain a good chunk of cap flexibility going forward. Players on expiring contracts can be used as trade chips, but the higher the salary, the trickier it is to find a suitable trade partner. As such, many of the impending free agents listed below will simply finish the season with their current clubs.

Here are the largest 2011/12 salaries set to come off the books this summer (minimum $5MM):

Kevin Garnett, Celtics: $21.25MM
Tim Duncan, Spurs: $21.16MM
Antawn Jamison, Cavaliers: $15.08MM
Chris Kaman, Hornets: $14.03MM
Steve Nash, Suns: $11.69MM
Jason Terry, Mavericks: $11.16MM
Marcus Camby, Trail Blazers: $11.07MM
Mehmet Okur, Nets: $10.89MM
Ray Allen, Celtics: $10MM
Jason Kidd, Mavericks: $9.62MM
Boris Diaw, Bobcats: $9MM
Carl Landry, Hornets: $8.5MM
Kirk Hinrich, Hawks: $8.1MM
Kris Humphries, Nets: $8MM
Andre Miller, Nuggets: $7.81MM
Leandro Barbosa, Raptors: $7.6MM
Raymond Felton, Trail Blazers: $7.56MM
Kwame Brown, Warriors: $6.75MM
Grant Hill, Suns: $6.5MM
* Michael Beasley, Timberwolves: $6.26MM
Jermaine O'Neal, Celtics: $6.23MM
* O.J. Mayo, Grizzlies: $5.63MM
Hasheem Thabeet, Rockets: $5.13MM

Additional notes:

  • Players marked with an asterisk will be eligible for restricted free agency if their respective teams extend them qualifying offers.
  • The Lakers and 76ers hold team options for Andrew Bynum and Andres Nocioni, respectively. Bynum's option will likely be exercised, but Nocioni's won't, clearing his $6.65MM 2011/12 cap figure.
  • A number of $5MM+ players have non-guaranteed contracts for next season: Kyle Korver, Lamar Odom, Samuel Dalembert, Martell Webster, Rashard Lewis, and J.J. Redick could all be bought out, taking a portion of their salaries off the cap.

Storytellers Contracts was used in the creation of this list.

Analysis: How Teams, All-Stars Part Ways

With the All-Star Game set for this evening in Orlando, home of Dwight Howard for who knows how much longer, there’s no better time to take a look at recent All-Stars and how some of them ended up changing teams.

The new collective bargaining agreement reached at the end of last year’s lockout included provisions designed to incentivize a free agent’s loyalty to his team and encourage trades.  We heard plenty about putting teams back in control of their players’ destinies in the wake of LeBron’s 2010 decision and the Melo-drama of last season. And, thanks in large measure to Mark Cuban, we continue to hear about that.  Nonetheless, among the 56 players who made All-Star teams during the previous CBA, from 2005/06 to 2010/11, there were three times as many who were traded away from their teams than there were who left as free agents.

That doesn’t mean some of those 21 traded All-Stars didn’t exert pressure on their teams to trade them. Yet in every one of those trades, the teams ultimately made the decision to part ways, and received compensation in return (in some cases, another All-Star). There were also four more All-Stars who were involved in sign-and-trades or extend-and-trades, hybrid moves in which players and teams all wield varying degrees of influence over the transaction. Only seven All-Stars simply left their teams via free agency.

The six-year period we’re looking at here is a relatively small sample size, and doesn’t take into consideration players who made All-Star teams before the 2005 CBA was in effect or account for transactions that have occurred under the terms of the new CBA, like the Chris Paul trade. It doesn’t include players who will leave their teams in the future, either. It’s an unscientific study, but it does reveal that teams have had greater control over top-level talent in recent years than they’ve let on.

Here are a few more findings:

  • The study covers players who were selected to appear in at least one All-Star Game, even if they didn’t play or were late additions to the roster. Ten of the 56 total All-Stars represented multiple teams, and Allen Iverson was an All-Star for three different franchises — the Nuggets, Pistons and Sixers.
  • The majority of the All-Stars were still on the roster of the last team they represented in the All-Star Game when the CBA expired last year. That group of 33 players includes Yao Ming, who didn’t announce his retirement until July of last year despite missing the entire 2010/11 season.
  • One All-Star and his team parted ways in an unusual fashion. The Sixers released a statement on March 2, 2010 stating that Iverson would not be returning to the team. Iverson’s page on Basketball Reference states that he was released by the team on that date, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Iverson, who hasn’t played a game in the NBA since, still counts as a cap hold on the Sixers roster for the two-year veteran’s minimum of more than $850K.
  • Among players who did not remain with their teams, there wasn’t too much time between their All-Star selections and the date of separation. Those players finished an average of 2.18 seasons with their teams after appearing on All-Star rosters. Two of the quickest departures occurred last season, when Carmelo Anthony and Deron Williams were traded two and three days, respectively, after the All-Star Game.

League To Make 13-Man Rosters Permanent

The hectic post-lockout schedule will be gone next year, but one vestige of the 2011 lockout looks like it will remain. Chris Sheridan of Sheridan Hoops reports the league's competition committee will recommend to the NBA Board of Governors that the 13-man active roster be made permanent.

Sheridan notes all 30 team representatives on the committee voted in favor of the change, in response to coaches and general managers who like the added flexibility they've experienced this year. The 13-man active roster was implemented earlier this season to help with the compressed schedule, but the roster size was originally supposed to go back to 12 at midseason. The league then said in January that the 13-man would stay in place throughout the season and the playoffs.

Traditionally, only 12 active players have been allowed each game, though teams could carry between one and three additional inactive players on the roster.

“The sentiment amongst the committee is you’re required to have a 13-man roster as it is, and if you’re required to have a 13-man roster, you should be able to dress and have their services available,” NBA vice president Stu Jackson said, according to the Sheridan report.

The committee is also recommending that waivers be allowed to process on the weekend. As it is, a player waived after the close of business on a Friday would not clear waivers until Tuesday.