The NBA conducted a series of random tiebreakers today to determine the lottery standings and the 2021 draft order. These tiebreakers involved teams that finished the regular season with identical records.
The results are as follows, per Jeremy Woo of SI.com (Twitter link):
- Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 4) over Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 5)
- Chicago Bulls (No. 8) over Sacramento Kings (No. 9) over New Orleans Pelicans (No. 10)
- Note: The Magic will receive the Bulls’ first-round pick if it doesn’t move up into the top four.
- Charlotte Hornets (No. 11) over San Antonio Spurs (No. 12)
- New York Knicks (No. 19) over Atlanta Hawks (No. 20)
- New York Knicks (No. 21) over Los Angeles Lakers (No. 22) over Houston Rockets (No. 23)
- Note: The Knicks’ pick is courtesy of the Mavericks, while the Rockets’ pick is courtesy of the Trail Blazers.
- Los Angeles Clippers (No. 25) over Denver Nuggets (No. 26).
Lottery teams that finished tied in the regular standings are granted essentially identical odds to move up into the top four. For instance, the Thunder and Cavaliers will each have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, while the Bulls, Kings, and Pelicans will have matching 4.5% odds at the top selection.
However, the tiebreaker is still important for lottery teams because it dictates which team(s) will draft first in the event that neither club moves into the top four. For example, the Cavs could theoretically slip as far as No. 9 in the draft now, while the Thunder couldn’t fall below No. 8.
Outside of the lottery, the tiebreaker results simply determine the draft order. That order is subsequently reversed in the second round. For instance, the Clippers and Nuggets will pick at Nos. 25 and 26, respectively in the first round, but in round two, Denver’s pick (traded to the Thunder) will be No. 55, while the Clippers’ pick (traded to Charlotte) will be No. 56.
The Thunder and Knicks are among the big tiebreaker winners. Oklahoma City’s odds of securing a top-six pick improved by virtue of its tiebreaker win over Cleveland. As for the Knicks, they could’ve ended up with the 20th and 23rd overall picks, but will instead draft at 19 and 21.
The Magic are an under-the-radar winner as well, since they hold Chicago’s first-round pick (top-four protected). The Bulls’ tiebreaker win didn’t affect the team’s odds of moving into the top four, but it substantially increased the odds that Orlando will end up with a pick at No. 8 or 9 instead of 10 or lower.
4 over 5 is huge
The most possible odd for 5 is 7
Yeah, kind of dumb to even have tie breakers. Why not just give them equal chances, which makes more sense, then flipping a coin.
I think the problem would then become if the teams are tied who gets to pick sooner if they don’t land in the lottery. i.e., Cavs/Thunder don’t get a top 4 pick, who gets the 8th pick and who gets the 9th pick. I do agree the chances they get a lottery pick should be the same.
They should have a winner-takes-all game where winner gets the higher pick. Probably too many problems with doing than than I can think of currently, but would be fun to watch.
I didn’t see the new section of Luke Adams article he just updated. So apparently Cavs Thunder still have identical odds basically. Cool thanks for clarifying Luke
Cavs have a lower floor, 9 to 8.
Yeah sorry I meant identical odds at a top 4 pick.
I mean it makes sense for teams that are exchanging picks, but it still would be the same outcome. Just give them equal odds with ping pong balls. Especially with the new rules, where top 4 are chosen.
Huge
18 years old Kuminga will be far better than 23 years old Davion Michell and 22 years old Kispert
Forget about them. Just draft 8 year old Johnson. Although maybe you take a chance and draft and stash 4 year old Smith. Younger is always better, right?
Possible Draft Picks between #8 – #10 :
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6-9 PF Scottie Barnes (most Likely gone)
6-6 SF Moses Moody (My Choice)
6-9 PF Franz Wagner
6-11 C/PF Kai Jones
Possible FA : (The Kings should look at)
(Because of Salary Cap Issues – Hield $24m, Bagley $9m, Holmes Looking for around $18m will move on or be Traded)
———————————————
(Pts / Rbds)
6-8 PF John Collins, Atl (17pts / 7rbd)
6-10 C Rachaun Holmes, Sac (14 / 8), seeking around $18m+
6-11 C Jarrett Allen, Clev (12 / 10)
6-7 SF Kelly Oubre, GS (15 / 6)
6-10 PF Serge Ibaka, LAC (11 / 7)
7-0 Mitchell Robinson, NY (8 / 8)
6-10 C Andre Drummonds, LAL (15 / 12)
6-7 SF Montrezl Harrell, LAL (13 / 6)
6-10 PF Bobby Portis, Mil (11 / 7)
Hopefully you don’t get Jarrett Allen haha :)
I am biased because I thoroughly enjoy Scottie Barnes game, but a PF/SF who handles the ball, pass, and enjoys playing solid defense probably won’t get to the 8 pick (imo).
Watch the Cavs get the ninth pick…..
For interest in NBA is for Chicago bulls get one of the two of Illinois starsDyo or That big man Cockburn would be great and drop that Australia big man that hustle only and got over paid by Paxson