During the 2021/22 regular season, the Warriors went 53-29 and had the league’s 16th-best offense and second-best defense, good for the fourth-best net rating. They led the NBA in net rating during the playoffs, winning their fourth title in eight years.
Expectations were understandably high entering the season as Golden State looked to defend its championship. The Warriors lost some bench depth, but that didn’t seem insurmountable with the primary core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney and Jordan Poole still in place.
Things haven’t gone according to plan. The Warriors dropped three of their last four games entering the All-Star break and have already equaled last season’s loss total, currently sitting at .500 with a 29-29 record. Entering the break last season, they were 42-17.
Their offense has actually improved — it’s up four spots to 12th in the league. The primary culprit has been the defense, which has fallen all the way down to 20th. Golden State’s net rating in ’22/23 isn’t much better, currently sitting at plus-0.1, which ranks 19th in the NBA.
Injuries to Curry and Wiggins haven’t helped. Wiggins is healthy now, but there’s still no timeline for Curry’s return to action following a left leg injury.
The team’s lone trade ahead of the deadline — sending out former No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman to bring back defensive stalwart Gary Payton II — has to be considered a disappointment on several levels. Not only did selecting Wiseman not work out, but Payton’s physical was flagged and he’s expected to miss an extended period of time with an abdominal injury.
The five-man unit of Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green and Looney has been absolutely dominant, recording a plus-21.9 net rating with what equates to the league’s best offense and defense. It has been far and away the most effective five-man group in the league that has played 300-plus minutes.
However, the bench has been a problem the entire season, and the team’s reliance on making jump shots has hurt when trying to close out games — the Warriors are last in the league in free throw attempts (they were 26th last season, but the defense was much, much better).
If the season ended today, the No. 9 seed Warriors would need to win a couple of games in the play-in tournament to reach the postseason. Their spot is tenuous, as they only hold a one-game lead on the Jazz and Trail Blazers, the current No. 11 and No. 12 seeds.
However, the West is so close, they’re also only 2.5 games back of the No. 4 seed Clippers, so a strong finish to the season could secure them homecourt advantage in the first round — the Warriors are 22-7 at home, but only 7-22 on the road.
Assuming Curry is healthy and they get in, no one will want to play the Warriors in the playoffs. They have been the most successful team in the league over the past decade and their core has a wealth of experience. But trying to get there has been a bumpy road.
We want to know what you think. Will the Warriors make a late-season push and secure a playoff spot outright? Or will they be stuck in the play-in mix for their final 24 games?
Head to the comments and share your thoughts on the Warriors’ outlook for the rest of the regular season.
Warriors outlook is all ifs now
If Warriors could claim their spot as the No. 6 seed, they are likely to win championship this year.
If Warriors slide all the way to the No. 10 seed, they are likely to go fishing in April.
The nba very clearly hates the warriors for what they have done. They wanted them to split up years ago but had an owner who paid the tax bill. It cost them wiseman because they couldn’t afford to keep him and give him time to grow. Think about this, warriors are first in free throws allowed and last in free throws taken. That’s the nba holding them down. Steph gets fouled regularly and refs swallow the whistle then T them up if they complain. Steph gets less superstar treatment then any other star in history.
I watch them get called for moving screens 5 times a game at the very least. Teams were playing do it and it’s crickets from the refs. It’s obviously strategic on the nba’s behalf
What about how the NBA screwed them on the schedule. The team with the most back to back games in the league. 15 back to back games and nobody comes close to it. Almost 20% of their games are back to back.
” The team with the most back to back games in the league. 15 back to back games and nobody comes close to it. ”
Clippers, Bulls, Kings, Jazz all have 15 back to back games too. link to si.com.
If the Warriors make it to the finals again this year, it would be an absolute miracle and Steph Curry will go down as a top-10 player all-time. Maybe even top five.
4 time champ, 2 time MVP(once unanimous), Finals MVP, 9 time All-star, 2 time scoring champ, 8 time All-NBA and all time 3pm all while changing the way the very game is played. If he’s not already top 10 he’s awfully close.
This season seems snake bitten. Short offseason, Klay doesnt play normal offseason games, then overseas trip, then Draymond punches Poole.
The season starts slow. Klay and Poole are both inconsistent to bad along with the bench.
Things start to come together as Klay rounds into form and just as they get going Wiggins goes down.
As soon as Wiggins starts to look like he did upon return Curry goes down.
Wiseman returns from the G and with the team short handed shows improvement while Kuminga re earns a rotation role. Both then get hurt outside of game action.
Curry returns and Wiggins returns from his second absence but Curry gets hurt again right as things start to round out again.
Iguadala played 3 games made an extremely awkward dunk attempt and has been back out.
They trade Wiseman for Payton and then find out Payton will be down a while.
The refs have seemed to be a little bad about calling tikitak fouls on GSW while “missing” some pretty egregious ones which seems to put the team on tilt.
At this point I would say the team is just trying to hang on with as good a seed as possible and enter the playoffs healthy and fresh ish with something similar to the playoff rotation that won it all last year. I like Payton, Donte, Poole, and Kuminga as mixable pieces on the bench in a playoff rotation if the starters are all healthy, and think they need either J.Green to keep shooting better from 3 as well as improving defensively or thats the spot to target. If Kuminga could use the rest of the season to show he can be a playoff rotation 4/5 that would give them some semblance of last years playoff rotation. They really do just need one more bigger player that can bang on Joker and make his life miserable for 5 min a game in the playoffs.
Good post. As far as Jokic, there’s really no worry there. If he plays 40 minutes and Green bangs on him for 20 minutes and Looney for 20 minutes, those two still have 15 more minutes each of not banging on Jokic. Really not cumbersome at all if you break it down.
They seemed to play him very physically last year, and would run as much as possible to just wear him down by the end of game. The thing though was they were doing Green/Looney and Beli in smaller stints all taking quick turns on him then subbing out so finding someone to fill the Beli min so you can use Green/Looney a decent amount when he is off the floor would help.
jaMychal Green is doing much better last 6 weeks
very good chapman
The Warriors spent the year trying to make something of their bench. As in the statement below I copied from the article, which I find remarkable, their starters are fine and as rotations are shortened up the Warriors will have no problem cruising through the playoffs. As with every team, whoever stays healthy will win it all.
“The five-man unit of Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green and Looney has been absolutely DOMINANT, recording a plus 21.9 net rating with what equates to the league’s BEST offense AND defense. It has been FAR AND AWAY the most effective five-man group in the league that has played 300-plus minutes.”
Past success has made Warrior fans delusional. Do they have a chance to win if they make it to the playoffs? sure, I would never count any team out. But saying that they’re “likely” to win as a #6 seed is beyond laughable.
Green has lost a step defensively, all he can do now is flop, and the refs aren’t buying it anymore.
Same with Curry and Klay, they are still outstanding offensively (at least Curry is) but in defense they are starting to become a liability.
Pool looks at times, like the best player on the court and then lost and disinterested just a few moments later.
Even when the team is healthy, they aren’t the same suffocating defensive team they once were, and that’s the main reason why they are losing so many games, specially on the road. They are just unable to get the key stops at the end of the game that makes a team a title contender.
Without Steph, and the current ~500 record, you can get into chase center for $90. That means the warriors front office knows they aren’t winning this year. It was over $500 for the worst seats in the house at the start of the year.
The warriors are better in the post season. That’s how their core is built. In the post season more time between games, less players playing = advantage warriors. Draymond is as good as ever, okay does better under pressure, and assuming curry is healthy, he’s unguardable from 35 feet…
Not to mention the refs can’t so blatantly call games to hinder the warriors during the playoffs, when everyone is watching. The rest of the owners feel cheated by lacob, even though the warriors have single-handedly raised the value of every other team in the league, and made the nba watchable. Basketball was hero-ball, slow and boring before the warriors. But lacob is near the bottom of the ownership totem pole wealth wise, and he is showing up people who are exponentially more wealthy than him. Refs are absolutely affecting games.
Warriors are scary in the playoffs, and even with their mediocre record this year, the demoralized affect on opposing players is real. We’ve seen it over and over, the warriors are in the heads of guys, it’s part of what makes them dominant.
It’s no sure thing that the warriors make the playoffs, but if they do I would put them at even odds with the other true contenders in the west. Nuggets, clippers, suns.. I’m sure I’m forgetting a couple others.
Warriors history with play in makes me nervous, especially considering one of the warriors greatest strengths is their ability to adjust during a series. 1 game is not a good scenario for the warriors.
Hopefully they will lose in the Play-in Tournament, get a lucky bounce in the lottery, and wind up with Wembyana
I think they’ll be fine
They’ll make it if they sign Patrick Beverley. He can this year’s Stephen Jackson
Position: Center ▪ Shoots: Left
7-0, 240lb (213cm, 108kg)
Born: March 31, 2001 (Age: 21-325d) in Nashville, Tennessee ……….
No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman to bring back defensive stalwart Gary Payton II — has to be considered a disappointment on several levels. Not only did selecting Wiseman not work out, but Payton’s physical was flagged and he’s expected to miss an extended period of time with an abdominal injury.
!!!! “” Not only did selecting Wiseman not work out, “” !!!!
Total NBA gms played 61 (18.4 mins per)
Twenty one years old ………
What I don’t understand. Is why more teams didn’t try to acquire Wiseman. Apparently they were giving him away ………..
You’re looking at the physical with James Wiseman Al. I guess there’s something between the ears that’s missing with him. Not every kid understands where to be on the court and why they need to be there and can make that decision a gazillion times a game.
Another thing remember Gary Payton missed a lot of time with the Warriors in the playoffs last year. Didn’t come back until game 2 or 3 of the finals and helped them close it out.