Four NBA players have signed rookie scale extensions so far in 2024, but if recent history is any indication, that number should at least double - and perhaps triple - by October 21, which is the deadline for those deals to be completed.
In each of the past four offseasons from 2020-23, at least 10 rookie scale extensions have been signed, including a record-setting 14 a year ago.
And while it's not uncommon for the most lucrative of those extensions to be finalized early in the offseason - like the maximum-salary deals for Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Franz Wagner were this summer - many negotiations go down to the wire. In each of those last four years, at least six rookie scale extensions have been completed in October (or, in the case of the COVID-delayed 2020 offseason, December).
Based on those figures, it seems safe to assume news will break within the next 10 days about a few more rookie scale extension agreements, but which of the players eligible to sign those contracts are the best bets to actually get something done? That's the question we're considering today.
Listed below are the 20 players still eligible for rookie scale extensions, ranked by the likelihood that they'll finalize new deals by October 21. We're starting with the least likely candidates and working our way up to the most likely.
To clarify, this list isn't ranking these players by value -- the No. 1 player isn't necessarily the one who should get the most lucrative contract. We're just using our best judgment to predict which of them are most likely to have new contracts in hand by opening night, allowing them to avoid going through the restricted free agency process in July 2025.
Let's dive in...
Not happening
20. Chris Duarte (Bulls)
Never say never, but it's pretty hard to envision a scenario in which Duarte signs a new contract with the Bulls before the season begins. He was sent from Sacramento to Chicago in the DeMar DeRozan sign-and-trade for salary purposes after two disappointing seasons in Indiana and Sacramento in which he averaged just 5.6 points per game on 37.4% shooting (32.9% on three-pointers). Duarte showed real promise in his rookie year in 2021/22 (13.1 PPG, .369 3PT%) and if he can recapture that form, he'd be worth retaining beyond the coming season, but now isn't the time to commit to him.
