Four NBA players have signed rookie scale extensions so far in 2024, but if recent history is any indication, that number should at least double - and perhaps triple - by October 21, which is the deadline for those deals to be completed.
In each of the past four offseasons from 2020-23, at least 10 rookie scale extensions have been signed, including a record-setting 14 a year ago.
And while it's not uncommon for the most lucrative of those extensions to be finalized early in the offseason - like the maximum-salary deals for Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Franz Wagner were this summer - many negotiations go down to the wire. In each of those last four years, at least six rookie scale extensions have been completed in October (or, in the case of the COVID-delayed 2020 offseason, December).
Based on those figures, it seems safe to assume news will break within the next 10 days about a few more rookie scale extension agreements, but which of the players eligible to sign those contracts are the best bets to actually get something done? That's the question we're considering today.
Listed below are the 20 players still eligible for rookie scale extensions, ranked by the likelihood that they'll finalize new deals by October 21. We're starting with the least likely candidates and working our way up to the most likely.
To clarify, this list isn't ranking these players by value -- the No. 1 player isn't necessarily the one who should get the most lucrative contract. We're just using our best judgment to predict which of them are most likely to have new contracts in hand by opening night, allowing them to avoid going through the restricted free agency process in July 2025.
Let's dive in...
Not happening
20. Chris Duarte (Bulls)
Never say never, but it's pretty hard to envision a scenario in which Duarte signs a new contract with the Bulls before the season begins. He was sent from Sacramento to Chicago in the DeMar DeRozan sign-and-trade for salary purposes after two disappointing seasons in Indiana and Sacramento in which he averaged just 5.6 points per game on 37.4% shooting (32.9% on three-pointers). Duarte showed real promise in his rookie year in 2021/22 (13.1 PPG, .369 3PT%) and if he can recapture that form, he'd be worth retaining beyond the coming season, but now isn't the time to commit to him.
Luke, Excellent stuff, as usual. This year’s candidates certainly hilite the risks in valuing high potential young players with only 3 years experience.
About Suggs, I’d propose he’s worth $5-$9M /yr more to the Magic than the $26M you suggest because of his his “intangibles”. The Magic say that it’s his leadership qualities — toughness, IQ, selflessness, etc — that make him there franchise PG.
You may be right in saying he’s unproven offensively, but I believe there’s confidence that Suggs has the ability to get to the basket much more in the future. Plus, he shot 39.7% from deep this past year.
Here are some other relevant numbers:
1. Immanuel Quickley, $33M
2. Magic will pay Jonathan Isaac $25M this year — different deal structure, but the 2 guys are in the same locker-room
I don’t disagree with you — in those previous stories I linked, I’ve mentioned that I think Suggs’ deal could easily exceed McDaniels’ since he already has more offensive responsibilities and will likely take on more this season.
There are some factors that make me second-guess that projection (the Magic will need to pay Banchero a year after Suggs, few teams will have the cap room necessary to take a run at Suggs next year, etc.), but I have to constantly remind myself that most rookie scale extensions come in a little higher than I expect, not lower.
> I have to constantly remind myself that most rookie scale extensions come
> in a little higher than I expect, not lower.
Ain’t that the truth. For me, they all seem at least $5M/yr too high, often more.