Why Draft-Pick Trade Makes Sense For Both Jazz, Suns

The Jazz and Suns completed a fascinating trade on Tuesday, with Utah sending three first-round picks (in 2025, 2027, and 2029) to Phoenix in exchange for a single first-round pick in 2031.

The exact terms of the deal are as follows:

• Jazz acquire the Suns’ 2031 first-round pick (unprotected).
• Suns acquire either the Cavaliers’ or Timberwolves’ 2025 first-round pick (whichever is least favorable); either the Cavaliers’, Timberwolves’, or Jazz’s 2027 first-round pick (whichever is least favorable); and either the Cavaliers’, Timberwolves’, or Jazz’s 2029 first-round pick (whichever is least favorable).
  • Note: The Timberwolves’ 2029 pick is top-five protected.

Our readers who have commented on our story on the deal have argued in favor of both the Suns’ and Jazz’s sides, while some have wondered about the logic of trading three first-rounders for a single far-off pick.

Given the assets that both teams held, it’s the sort of swap that makes perfect sense for both sides. Here’s why:

Why the trade makes sense for the Jazz:

As a result of their trades sending Donovan Mitchell to Cleveland and Rudy Gobert to Minnesota, the Jazz controlled Cleveland’s and Minnesota’s unprotected first-round picks in 2025 and 2027, along with Cleveland’s unprotected 2029 pick and Minnesota’s top-five protected ’29 selection.

That means, along with their own pick, the Jazz would have three first-round picks in each of those drafts. That’s essentially the same situation Utah has been in for each of the last two drafts — the club controlled three of the top 28 picks in 2023 and three of the top 32 in 2024 and used all of them to bring in rookies. It has proven to be a challenge to get all those youngsters acclimated at once, so it makes sense that the Jazz would want to avoid repeating that situation over and over again in the coming years.

By trading the least favorable of their 2025, 2027, and 2029 first-round selections, the Jazz will consolidate the least valuable of those picks while still leaving themselves with multiple first-rounders in each draft.

And now they have an intriguing new unprotected 2031 first-rounder, which has significant value due to the nature of the Suns’ roster construction. While Devin Booker figures to be a star in Phoenix for years to come, Kevin Durant turns 37 this year — he certainly won’t still be a Sun by 2031. And if Phoenix trades for Jimmy Butler, the club will be adding a player who turns 36 later this year (even if Bradley Beal remains a Sun for now, it’s unlikely he’ll still be on the roster by 2031).

Suns owner Mat Ishbia has shown he’s willing to spend big, but that doesn’t always translate to winning. This year’s Suns team has the highest payroll in the NBA and is still on the verge of falling out of the play-in picture — they’re tied for the No. 10 seed at 21-21. So there’s certainly no guarantee that, with few valuable draft assets left in their coffers and little flexibility to upgrade their roster, the Suns will be a playoff-caliber team in 2031. The Jazz are certainly betting against it.

Could this bet backfire on Utah? Sure. Maybe the Cavs and Timberwolves both fall apart in the coming years and Utah’s rebuild doesn’t progress as planned, resulting in all three teams missing the playoffs in 2029 and the Jazz sending Phoenix a lottery pick. But given the building blocks the Cavs and Timberwolves have in place, that’s highly unlikely, and even in that scenario, Utah would still control two lottery picks (unless Minnesota’s ’29 first-rounder is in the top five, which is a long shot).

Maybe the Suns figure out a way to maintain a sustainable contender and their 2031 pick ends up in the 20s. But even if that happens, it probably won’t become obvious for several more years, given how quickly teams’ fortunes can change in the NBA. And in the meantime, that unprotected pick will have tremendous value on the trade market if Utah wants to flip it in another deal.

There’s certainly some risk involved, but given how many draft assets they already possessed, it makes sense for the Jazz to surrender their three least valuable first-rounders to roll the dice on the chances that Phoenix’s 2031 pick could land in the top five.

Why the trade makes sense for the Suns:

Given how valuable that unprotected 2031 Suns first-rounder could be, along with the likelihood that the three picks they’re acquiring will end up in the 20s (or even at No. 30, if the Cavs finish the 2024/25 season with the league’s best record), what’s the thinking for Phoenix here?

Well, this Suns front office remains fully focused on upgrading the team in the short term and turning a single first-round pick into three first-rounders will help them do that.

Take Phoenix’s pursuit of Butler, for instance. In a multi-team scenario in which the Suns send Beal to a third team and acquire Butler from Miami, both the Heat and that third team will need to be incentivized. With just one tradable first-round pick in 2031 to offer, the Suns weren’t well positioned to offer sweeteners to both of its trade partners.

Now, Phoenix could offer, say, one first-rounder to the Heat and one first-rounder to the team taking on Beal’s onerous contract, with an additional pick left over to potentially send to one of those two clubs (which team gets it could depend on what the rest of the deal looks like). Those individual picks aren’t as valuable on their own as the Suns’ unprotected 2031 first-rounder, but splitting them up into multiple tradable assets allows Phoenix to spread them out across multiple trade partners.

The same thinking would apply if the Suns don’t acquire Butler and instead make separate trades to upgrade their roster. For instance, Phoenix could look to trade Beal and a pair of first-round picks for a series of role players who would better complement Durant and Booker, then attach a third first-rounder to Jusuf Nurkic in order to try to upgrade that roster spot too.

Again, that Suns 2031 pick is more valuable on its own that any of the new picks Phoenix acquired, but it also represented a risk for any potential trade partner — it’s six years out, and there’s no guarantee it won’t end up in the 20s itself. The Jazz were willing to take the risk on that 2031 pick due to their cache of existing draft assets, but it wouldn’t have made sense for every team.

The new picks are simpler for teams to place a value on, so there shouldn’t be much disparity between what the Suns and a trade partner think they’re worth. That might not have been the case for the 2031 first-rounder.

It’s also worth noting that reacquiring picks in 2025 and 2027 and 2029 gives the Suns more flexibility in terms of which first-rounders they make available going forward. The team could theoretically now trade its picks in 2026 and 2028 while hanging onto the ones in the odd-numbered years without running afoul of the Stepien rule, which prohibits a club from leaving itself without a first-round pick in consecutive future drafts.

However, trading first-rounders for even-numbered years would limit the Suns to two tradable picks, since the 2030 first-rounder can’t be moved now that Phoenix doesn’t control a 2031 pick. Additionally, those 2026 and 2028 also have “least favorable” terms applied to them, so if they’re more valuable than the newly acquired picks, it’s only marginally.

The ’26 selection will be the least favorable of Washington’s, Orlando’s, Memphis’, and Phoenix’s first-rounders, while the ’28 pick – probably the most valuable of the bunch – figures to be the least favorable of Washington’s, Brooklyn’s, and Phoenix’s first-rounders (Philadelphia’s pick could also be in that mix if the Sixers don’t convey their pick to Brooklyn in 2027).

Whatever the Suns plan to do with their first-rounders from 2025-29, it seems like a relatively safe bet that they won’t still control all of them by the time the trade deadline passes on February 6.